Week 4 Picks

Just a note about the start/sit: A lot of fantasy matchups this week are pretty terrible. However, due to 6 teams being on bye this week, a large number of the people I’m recommending to sit will need to be in lineups this week, unless it is an ultra-shallow format (Sup ESPN Standard League). Expect fantasy scoring to be pretty low in most games.

Home team in caps.

Buffalo (-8) ST. LOUIS, O/U 41.5

The soft schedule for the 3-0 Bills continues this week. Expect big days from everyone on the Bills, they should be able to move the ball at will. Newly promoted Trent Green is going to spend most of the day on his back, if you own any Rams, don’t expect them to do much in this one. Reports around the St. Louis locker room indicate that the team has pretty much given up on Linehan, in light of the Bulger demotion.

MLTS Pick: Buffalo, over.

Start: Every Bills player, including Fred Jackson if your league is deep enough (garbage time after the 2^nd quarter). Steven Jackson is the only Ram I would feel comfortable starting, but you may want to consider other options.

Sit: Holt, Green. Unless your league is really deep and you don’t have any other options, I would sit these guys. I’m expecting no more than 13 points out of the Rams this week.

CAROLINA (-7) Atlanta, O/U 39.5

Remember that 14 rush, 42 yards performance from Michael Turner in Week 2? I’m expecting something very similar in Week 4 from the NFL’s leading rusher. Trade him now if you can, as per my advice in the previous article. Carolina should be able to effectively take away the run and force Matt Ryan to beat them, a combination MLTS is not willing to endorse. The legitimacy of the Atlanta running game gets a major test this weekend. Expect Atlanta to try to take away the run from Carolina, but it won’t really make much of a difference. Smith, Muhammad, Hackett, Rosario and Delhomme should be able to do enough to win this game.

MLTS Pick: Carolina, under.

Start: Carolina passing game. Carolina defense.

Sit: Turner (you can’t really sit him, but I wouldn’t expect another 100 yard game from him for a while), Ryan, Roddy White.

CHICAGO (NL) Philadelphia

The Bears come into this game 1-2 when they could have easily been 3-0. The disappointment of giving up two 4^th quarter leads will inspire the defense to be dominant, as they were in the first week and first halves of week 2 and 3. Lots of questions about this game, though. Will the Bears be able to move the ball at all? The Philly defense has taken away the running game all season and gotten after the QB. Bears WR and QB are at a complete disadvantage against the Philadelphia DBs. On Philly’s side of the ball, will they be able to move the ball well if Westbrook isn’t playing? Reports are mixed on whether or not he goes this week. If he does play, will he get 30+ touches?

MLTS Pick: Philly

Start: McNabb, DeSean Jackson, LJ Smith.

Sit: Forte, Westbrook/Buckhalter (unless you don’t have a better option).

CINCINNATI (-3) Cleveland, O/U 44.5

The good news: Some once delicious fantasy offenses will most likely light it up this week. The bad news: One of these teams will get their first win. The All-Ohio Bowl aka The Toilet Bowl comes at a great time for both of these teams, they really need to get their offenses into rhythm and on track for the rest of the season if they plan to be a factor at all. We’re expecting a lot of points in this one, but think that both teams will try to establish the run first; something neither has been able to do in the first three weeks.

MLTS Pick: Cincy, under.

Start: Every offensive player, even Chad Johnson and Derek Anderson.

Sit: You shouldn’t own the defenses, so don’t worry about sitting them.

DALLAS (-11) Washington, O/U 46

We were confused by this line. Yes, Dallas appears to have all of the ingredients of a great team. No, Washington doesn’t look to be all that great, especially compared to 2/3 teams that Dallas has defeated. Yes, it is an NFC East game, games that historically are close and not very high scoring (though maybe Dallas/Philly threw that out the window). Jason Taylor isn’t playing for the Redskins, expect the pass rush to be lacking against an excellent Dallas O-Line.

MLTS Pick: Redskins, over.

Start: All of the offensive players, including Dallas #3 WR Miles Austin if you are in a deep league. The Dallas defense is pretty good, but we’re banking on the Redskins being able to put up 18-20 points.

Sit: Redskins defense.

Denver (-9) KANSAS CITY, O/U 46.5

This is another line we were really confused by – Denver looks like they have the ability to score 45 on anyone and the Chiefs are one of the worst defenses in the NFL. This one could get ugly quick; our only concern for the betting line is that Denver will go into kill the clock mode midway through the second quarter. The KC offensive players should be able to do ok from a fantasy perspective, except that they won’t be touching the ball for most of the game.

MLTS Pick: Denver, over.

Start: All your Broncos. Dwayne Bowe, Tony Gonzalez.

Sit: Larry Johnson (in case you haven’t figured it out, I hate this guy. And I was accurate on my call last week until LJ inexplicably remembered what NFL running backs are paid to do and ran for 70 yard TD). Huard (I guess he’s the starter again).

JACKSONVILLE (-7.5) Houston, O/U 42

Jacksonville isn’t that great. They’re alright, I could see them turning their season around pretty quickly and making a playoff run of it, but my reason for taking the Jags this week is not because they’re good, it is because Matt Schaub is so bad on the road. 8 TD, 15 INT on the road in his career. He’s got a QB rating of 62 (it’s not a great stat, but it’ll work for my purposes) against the AFC South in his career. I’m not expecting anything out of the Houston passing game in this one.

MLTS Pick: Jags, under.

Start: MJD, Gerrard, Taylor. Andre Johnson, Slaton.

Sit: Schaub.

NEW ORLEANS (-5.5) San Francisco O/U 48

Everyone wants to be playing N.O. in fantasy. And everyone wants their players to be in the Mike Martz offense. Two pretty good offenses meet up in this one, but you have to give an edge to the SF defense, surprisingly. N.O. is really banged up, expect to see a lot of Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas in this one. On the other side of the ball, O’Sullivan, Gore and Bryant Johnson figure to be strong plays this week. Bush vs. Gore. 2000 election, ho! Too bad we can’t go back in time to change the results of that one.

MLTS Pick: In Gore we trust, over.

Start: Every healthy offensive player. Expect Pierre Thomas to be especially useful in this one for the Saints.

Sit: Once again, why do you own these defenses?

NY JETS (-1.5) Arizona O/U 45

Alex and I were completely flabbergasted by this matchup. The Jets are having some major communication issues offensively, holding back an offense that should end up being pretty good. Favre threw 2 INT last week but let’s be fair – they weren’t typical Favre INTs: Cromartie made a great play on the first and his WR ran the wrong way on the other one. Arizona wasn’t quite as high flying as I thought they would be last week, but if Phillip Rivers’ game (19/25, 250 yds, 3 TD) against the Jets was any indication of what is to come, expect another huge day from the Arizona passing game. Favre and the Jets might be grounded by the unusual schemes Arizona likes to use.

MLTS Pick: Arizona, over.

Start: Arizona passing game. If NT Kris Jenkins doesn’t play for the Jets, I like Hightower and Edge. You have to think that Favre and the Jets will have an offensive explosion one of these days, right?

Sit: Jets defense.

San Diego (-7.5) OAKLAND O/U 45

SD looked great on MNF, no ifs, ands, or buts about it. They should be 3-0 and they’ll be 2-2 after this game. Oakland has played better than expected, particularly QB JaMarcus Russell, but if McFadden is limited by turf toe (reporters following the team say he’s at 75% speed) and Fargas is out, there isn’t much to like about their offense. Look for SD to cover a large amount of the over/under themselves. Oakland will score, though. The SD defense is really hurt.

MLTS Pick: SD, over.

Start: SD. Maybe Michael Bush/McFadden

Sit: Oakland.

TAMPA BAY (-1) Green Bay O/U 42.5

Which Bay will prove to be the better? Tampa is getting a home bounce with this line, I suppose. Schwartz and I don’t really think Tampa can hold a candle to Green Bay on offense, but their defense should keep them in the game. Brian Griese isn’t going to throw 67 times this week (I think) so expect a little more out of the TB running backs, but not much. Ryan Grant needs to get healthy in a hurry for GB to emerge as one of the top 4 teams in the NFC.

MLTS Pick: Green Bay, over (we’re lovers of points this week).

Start: GB passing game (remember, Kyle Orton had a good day against TB last week).

Sit: TB offense (expecting them to score, but not often). GB ground game.

TENNESSEE (-3) Minnesota O/U 36

Game of the week. And, like those DirecTV ads, you likely won’t see it on cable! Tennessee has all of the making of an elite defense. Minnesota is still starting Gus Frerotte. Not expecting much out of anyone in this game from a fantasy perspective, except for the defenses. Chris Johnson’s production is still going to be limited by big, fat LenDale White.

MLTS Pick: Tennessee, under.

Start: Both defenses. Chris Johnson. Adrian Peterson.

Sit: Everyone else.

PITTSBURGH (NL) Baltimore

At the time of writing this, there wasn’t a line available for this game. Pittsburgh comes into this game pretty beat up – Big Ben is recovering from the beating the Eagles gave him, Parker is out. Rashard Mendenhall gets the pleasure of facing one of the elite defenses in the NFL for his first start. Good luck and welcome to the NFL. Expect this to be a pretty low scoring affair; both defenses should be excellent plays this week.

MLTS Pick: Baltimore

Start: Both defenses. Baltimore RBs have looked pretty good thus far, they’re going to get a major test this week. McGahee should be a decent start and McClain will be an ok start in deep leagues.

Sit: Pittsburgh offense, especially Mendenhall. I feel best about Heath Miller, Hines Ward in this matchup. If you have other options at QB and WR, sit Big Ben and Holmes.