The Deeb's Breakout Choices

In The Deeb's response to my most recent post, he suggested his list of potential breakout candidates for the 2008-2009 NFL Season. I wanted to go through his list and identify why he chose these six players.

Jerrico Cotchery:
The writing is on the wall with Cotchery. He is a 26 year old lightning receiver who runs great routes. He is finally working with a quarterback who can deliver the ball downfield with startling accuracy, opening up the middle of the field for Cotchery's best routes. In addition, the Jets offensive line is (allegedly) vastly improved, allowing Favre more time to find open wide receivers. We've already seen what Favre is capable of with a great offensive line (just look at last year's line), and Cotchery is likely to be the main beneficiary of the new QB acquisition.

Calvin Johnson:
His nickname is "Megatron." If that's not enough for people to like Calvin Johnson, consider this. As a dinged-up rookie learning a complicated offense, Johnson put up reasonable offensive numbers. He has all the physical tools to succeed at this level, and his intelligence as a WR is unquestioned. The only real question for Detroit is how high-flying their offense is likely to be this year - they appear to be switching to a more conservative offense, which will play to Johnson's possession WR abilities, but not necessarily the explosiveness a lot of people are anticipating.

Matt Schaub:
See the post on Andre Johnson below. Granted, Schaub appears to be an injury risk, but the Texans are only getting better as a team, and Schaub could be very good value as a late round pick.

David Garrard:
I really like Garrard. Consider what he did with very little help from his WRs last year, and what he's going to be capable of after making these moves. Porter and Williamson certainly aren't going to hurt Garrard's abilities to be a borderline-elite QB this year. Don't expect a reproduction of the same no-mistake tendencies he showed last year with 3 INTs, but do expect a few more high-risk/high-reward plays which excite fantasy owners with moster weeks.

Marshawn Lynch:
Lynch's breakout is limited to one thing and one thing only: are teams going to be stacking the box every down? Buffalo has endured some horrid quarterbacking the past few seasons, and last year, it truly inhibited Lynch's ability to be an elite NFL running back. If the passing game is there, expect a major breakout. If not, expect more of the same (which is very good).

Santonio Holmes:
Holmes is a speed demon who runs great routes. He was hurt at times last year with a lingering ankle injury, but still managed to put up almost 1000 yards in 13 games. As Hines Ward ages and loses a few steps, Holmes will be relied on more and more as the true downfield threat. Buyer beware, the Steelers lost Alan Faneca, their best offensive lineman in the offseason - this could cause the Steelers to abandon many deeper routes which take more time in favor of a possession-oriented passing attack.