Week 5 Picks

Week 5 - STL, NYJ, OAK, CLE on bye.

ARIZONA -1 Buffalo, O/U 44.5

The Cardinals will be without Anquan Boldin who is recovering from the vicious hit he took against the Jets in Week 4. Boldin-less, MLTS likes Larry Fitzgerald a ton in this game and figures that the Cardinals might try to run the ball a bit more. Expect WR Lee Evans to have a huge game for the Bills against an Arizona secondary that was exposed, nay, molested by the Jets last week. This game probably comes down to whoever makes the most mistakes. Kurt Warner can’t throw 3 INTs and fumble 4 times if Arizona is going to win.

MLTS Pick: Buffalo, under.

Start: Arizona skill players, Lee Evans, Trent Edwards, Marshawn Lynch.

Sit: Buffalo is a pretty good defense but none of the fantasy matchups are overly terrible for Arizona.

CAROLINA -9.5 Kansas City, O/U 38.5

Fresh off of stifling Michael Turner, expect the Carolina run defense to do the exact same thing to Larry Johnson this week. Speaking of LJ, he obviously is a reader of MLTS (an angry one at that) as he’s responded to being called out in this space with huge fantasy performances in weeks 3 and 4. Carolina operates a more traditional running scheme to the one that the Broncos tried to sneak by the Chiefs last week, expect Carolina running backs to approach the numbers that Oakland (or Atlanta) put up on KC earlier this season. Stewart/Williams may not be as good as Run-DMC, but they’re adequate backs and will both have nice games. The Carolina passing game is also better than the Atlanta and Oakland aerial attacks.

MLTS Pick: Carolina, over.

Start: Carolina. Dwayne Bowe, Tony Gonzalez.

Sit: Larry Johnson (The hate train keeps on rolling), The Kansas City Quarterback.

Chicago -3.5 DETROIT, O/U 44.5

Don’t worry Chicago fans, the Cubs and White Sox may be on the way out of the MLB post-season already, but the Bears get Detroit this week! This game might be surprisingly high scoring. The Bears defense has been dominant against the run so far this season; Rudi Johnson/Kevin Smith should only start in really deep leagues. However, the Bears have been incredibly bad against the pass. And Nate Vasher will be out for this game. Look for Kitna, Megatron and Roy Williams to have big days against the Bears (especially since they will have had 2 weeks to prepare). Expect Matt Forte to carry the load offensively against the Lions – he could easily put up a 200+ yfs, 2 TD kind of game. Kyle Orton has also been surprisingly competent this season, he’s a definite must start in most leagues this week (unless you have a Manning, Brees, McNabb, etc). The Chicago defense will get scored on, but they will probably also make it to the house on an INT or fumble recovery.

MLTS Pick: Bears, over.

Start: All offensive players except Lions RBs. Chi Defense.

Sit: Lions RBs.

DALLAS -17 Cincinnati, O/U 44

-17 is a monster spread. Reports indicate that Carson Palmer will be out against Dallas, former Harvard QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will get the start this week for the Bengals. In case you needed a reminder of how dysfunctional the Bengals are, Cedric Benson was signed to their roster this week. If NFL games were decided by comparing each team’s propensity to be involved in a) drunken boating, b) felonies involving drugs, nightclubs and/or strippers, 3) mailing in your season, the Bengals would end up being the 2008 version of the 2007 Patriots. Anyway, Dallas moves to 4-1 this week. Look for Dallas to put up about 40 points in the first half and then sit all of their important players. 17 points is a lot to cover.

MLTS Pick: Cincinnati, over.

Start: Dallas. Chris Perry (RBs have done well against the Dallas D), TJ Houshmandzadeh (One would assume a QB from Harvard would know to target his best WR).

Sit: The artist formerly known as Chad Johnson.

DENVER -3 Tampa Bay, O/U 48

Denver needs to rebound in a big way this weekend. Tampa has a pretty solid defensive unit, the best one the Broncos have seen so far by a lot. Ronde Barber has been exposed by lesser WR than what the Broncos will throw at him, though. Look for Royal and Stokely to further expose the aging, Super-Bowl Champion Barber. Denver has too many weapons for Tampa to stop them all game. Tampa’s offensive outlook figures to be a good one this week. Earnest Graham continues to be the master of big runs in garbage time and, in case you missed it, the Broncos gave up 200 yards to Larry Johnson last week. Brian Griese should easily be able to find the holes in the Denver secondary, making Antonio Bryant a solid play this week.

MLTS Pick: Denver, over.

Start: Bucs O, Denver passing game.

Sit: Denver running game (see Michael Turner, Ryan Grant vs Tampa this year).

GREEN BAY NL Atlanta

This game looked a lot better for Green Bay before they lost Al Harris and half of their D-Line to injury. Green Bay comes into this game beat up on offense, too. Their success hinges on Aaron Rodgers being healthy – it seems he will be available for this game. Upgrade Michael Turner a little bit in this game, though he shouldn’t post the gaudy numbers he put up in week 1 and 3. Matt Ryan and Roddy White might have decent games against the GB secondary but I’m not really liking their chances since they’re on the road, away from the Dome they play so well in. So much of this game hinges on who Green Bay has available though, it is hard to say how it will turn out.

MLTS Pick: Green Bay

Start: GB Offense (downgrade Driver and Jennings if Rodgers isn’t going), Turner.

Sit: Norwood, Ryan, White.

Indianapolis -3 HOUSTON, O/U 47

Peyton Manning coming off of bye vs Matt Schaub at home. Schaub obviously reads MLTS and was infuriated by seeing us air his terrible road stats last week. Indianapolis still comes into this game really beat up and will sorely miss Bob Sanders this week when they’re trying to stop Steve Slaton and Texans’ TE Owen Daniels. Speaking of tight ends (insert double entendre here), Dallas Clark has more TDs against the Texans than any other player in the NFL. Both of these defenses are pretty shaky, expect some big fantasy days from the usual suspects on both teams.

MLTS Pick: Indy, over.

Start: Every offensive player. Try to convince your non-Texans to join the Texans this week for fantasy purposes.

Sit: uh…

JACKSONVILLE -4 Pittsburgh, O/U 36

Game of the week candidate? Last time these teams met, the Jags knocked the Steelers out of the playoffs. Unfortunately for the Steelers, they’re coming into this game beat up from their Monday night game with the Ravens – Mewelde Moore is going to be their starting running back. Yes, he was #4 on the depth chart before this week. He should be a solid fantasy play, expect the Steelers to use him in the passing game a fair amount. Jacksonville is back in the thick of things with two straight wins. They’ve still got a beat up offensive line, though. Look for the Steelers to be as physical as they were against the Ravens. I’m giving the nod to the Jaguars because of health reasons – Pittsburgh might not be able to be effective for the whole game due to injury.

MLTS Pick: Jacksonville, over.

Start: MJD. Moore. Steelers passing game.

Sit:

New England -3 SAN FRANCISCO, O/U 41

Who shows up for this game: Randy Moss, the malcontent or Randy Moss, the best WR in the NFL? You have to think that the Pats will try to get their passing game rolling early and often vs San Francisco, especially after seeing what Drew Brees and New Orleans did to them last week. The personnel may be different, but Bill Belichek knows the Mike Martz offense well enough to contain it. This could end up being a pretty lopsided game.

MLTS Pick: NE, over.

Start: Frank Gore. NE WR. Cassel.

Sit: O’Sullivan. SF WR.

GIANTS -7 Seattle, O/U 43.5

Yes, Seattle will be using actual NFL players to catch passes this week. No, it won’t make a difference. In the rare situation that both teams are off bye at the same time, expect this game to be well played and well coached on both sides. The Giants are going to have some problems moving the ball without Plax, but they’ve had plenty of time to plan what they’re going to do without him. Expect a healthy dose of all three Giants RBs and a possession-style receiving game. The Giants defense is really good; expect to see Hasselbeck on his back plenty of times this game.

Schwartz pick: Seattle, under.

DB pick: Giants, under.

Start: Giants RBs and Defense, Julius Jones, Bobby Engram.

Sit: Both QBs, Giants WR.

PHILADELPHIA -6 Washington, O/U 42.5

NFC East rock-paper-scissors game continues. Washington is fresh off of a great win against the Cowboys whereas Philly is left scratching their heads over their loss to the Bears. Reports are positive about the health of Brian Westbrook, I’m really hoping that he’ll be available for this game. If he is available, I’d expect Philly to test the Washington run defense, which held up against Marion Barber and the Cowboys in limited action. Like most NFC East games we’ll see this season, this game is going to come down to turnovers and field position.

MLTS Pick: Eagles, over.

Start: Philly O, Redskins passing offense.

Sit: Portis (Philly has one of the best Run defenses in the league).

San Diego -6.5 MIAMI, O/U 45

The good news? San Diego has given up a TD to every tight end they’ve faced so far this season. Congrats Anthony Fasano! Miami should be able to move the ball through the air if Brown or Pennington is throwing it. The bad news? San Diego has had adequate run defense and has a tendency to make you pass the ball by putting up a lot of points quickly. The Miami secondary is a pretty big mismatch for Phil Rivers, et al. This game is going to come down to the Miami offensive line opening big enough running lanes for Brown/Williams, something they should probably be able to do. Expect some more offensive trickery from Miami, since they’re coming off of bye.

MLTS Pick: San Diego, over.

Start: San Diego. Fasano, Brown, Williams.

Sit: Pennington.

Tennessee -3 BALTIMORE, O/U 33.5

The two best defenses in the NFL face off this week. MLTS is giving a slight edge to Tennessee because Baltimore is coming off of a short week (against a Pittsburgh team that left them pretty banged up) and TEN RBs are healthy. Flacco looked good against the Steelers last week and the Ravens gave him an effective game-plan. This week will be different, the TEN defensive line is incredible and their secondary is tops in the NFL. Kerry Collins hasn’t made any major gaffes yet for the Titans – expect that to change unless he exercises extreme caution against a dangerous Ravens secondary. Big defensive plays should lead to some interesting short field opportunities for each team’s running game.

Schwartz Pick: Baltimore, over.

DB Pick: Tennessee, over.

Start: Both Defenses, TEN RBs, McGahee, Ray Rice.

Sit: Both QBs, all WR.

NEW ORLEANS -3 Minnesota, O/U 46.5

New Orleans can win this game one way and one way only. They’re going to have to attack the Vikings through the air. As such, look for more Reggie Bush, NO Wideouts and less Duece McAllister. On the other side of the ball, the Vikings come into this game needing to win in a big way. Gus Frerotte shouldn’t handicap them too much this game, as the NO defense is terribad. Adrian Peterson should have his best game of the season so far, anything less than 150 yards and 2 scores should be a disappointment.

MLTS Pick: Minnesota, under.

Start: AP, NO passing game.

Sit: McAllister, Frerotte, MIN WR.