It has often been stated that predicting fantasy breakouts in football is less about a player making a big adjustment to his game and more about opportunity. I very much agree with this outlook, and so when I look at Week 1 performances, I don't want to see a guy who had two receptions for 70 yards and two scores, I want to see a guy who was featured prominently in the offense. With this in mind, lets look at the top surprise in the NFL in Week 1 - Eddie Royal.
Wow. Isn't DeAngelo Hall an elite NFL defensive back? Wasn't Gibril Wilson brought to OAK from the defending Superbowl Champion New York Giants to shore up a shoddy pass defense? There is a lot to love about Eddie Royal. Lets throw some numbers at you:
11 - The number of targets Eddie Royal received. Everyone has been talking about how a new sheriff is in town once Brandon Marshall returns, but the fact remains that Eddie Royal just put up the best week by a WR in the NFL. The Denver running game has lacked some of the explosiveness of yore, and Jay Cutler appears to be emerging as (at least) a viable top-10 NFL QB - if Denver does convert into a passing-style offense, Marshall's return may actually help Royal's stats. With his agility and crisp route-running, Royal can carve up most #2 cornerbacks in the league, and if Marshall is a vertical threat, Royal is at worst going to be a solid performer in a Wes Welker-esque mold of receiver.
7 - This is the number of first downs Royal registered. He caught 9 balls, and 7 of them moved the chains. If there is one thing that NFL coaches and QBs love, it's wide receivers who don't fall a yard in front of the first down marker. Royal's quickness forced Hall to play a few steps off him on man-to-man packages, and his route running allowed him to quickly find the seam in every zone the Raiders were putting out there. 2 of the 7 First Downs were recorded on 3rd down situations for DEN.
0 - This is the number of passes Royal caught inside the OAK 20 yard-line. Some of you may look at this as a bad number - and indeed, in many contexts it is - but it is also a really promising figure for one imporant reason - elite players (like Marshall) are the fixtures of Red Zone offenses. If Royal's Week 1 breakout were attributable to his being the number one option as Denver marched towards the goalposts, you could expect a large decline in his numbers. Instead, Royal was used to great effect as a catalyst to starting drives. This means that perhaps we can look to Royal more as a more consistent, possession-type WR than guys like Greg Jennings of GB whose value last year was enhanced greatly by an unsustainable TD rate.
5 - The number of non-reception touches Royal had on Monday night. Two punt returns, two rushes, and one passing attempt. If there's one thing that demonstrates a coach's knowledge that a player has a unique and dangerous skillset, it is the attempt to get the player touching the ball in as many different situations as possible. Clearly, Mike Shanahan did not overlook Royal as a potential gamebreaker in Week 1. As a smart fantasy owner, you should look at the stats a little more deeply and realize that this is the start of a legitimate breakout year.
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