"Ovie vs Crosby" by Bobby Gottfried

Taking a step back from fantasy football, here is an article written by our good friend Bobby Gottfried, who knows more about hockey than Schwartz and me combined. Thanks for the contribution, Bobalew.

Over the last few seasons fantasy hockey has steadily, if slowly, grown in popularity. For those of you who do play, your drafts are probably coming up soon, and there’s one big question raging among fantasy hockey buffs. No, not how to fit the phrase “5 hole” into your team name now that you can’t use Jagr Bombs anymore, but rather who the 1^st overall pick should be: Alex Ovechkin or Sidney Crosby.

I will preface this by stating that I am a Capitals fan, and so I am slightly biased. If I have the 1^st pick, I’m taking Ovechkin, no questions asked. So to take the bias out of this, I will use numbers to prove my point, which is that Ovechkin is the smart pick at number 1.

Last season in 82 games Ovechkin put up 65 goals and 47 assists, a total of 112 points. In 53 games Crosby had 24 goals, 48 assists for a total of 72 points. Yeah, Crosby was hurt and missed time last season, but I’m not worried about it this year. Both guys get you 1.4 points per game. Points are a wash. But here’s where the decision starts to shift to Ovechkin. Only one player can score a goal, but two can get assists each time the puck goes into the net. Assists are easier to find. Draft right and you can get a lot of assist help from your defensemen, while with a few exceptions, your goals will come from forwards. There aren’t as many scorers in the league as playmakers. Last season, 20 players had 50+ assists. Only 10 players scored 40 goals, 3 scored 50, and no one came within 13 tallies of Ovie’s 65. Alex the Great was also the leader in game winning goals (11) if your league uses them.

People wonder if Ovechkin can keep up his pace from last season. While I can’t, for obvious reasons, claim to know for sure, all signs point to yes. His problem in his first two seasons was that he lacked consistent center play on his line. He has that now with one of the best young centers in the league, Nicklas Backstrom. In addition, he’ll play with right winger Chris Clark, who missed most of last season with a groin injury. Clark is known for parking himself in front of the net to set screens and clean up rebounds. Screens will help Ovechkin continue to score, and the rebound play will gain Ovechkin a few more assists, since he sends the puck at the net so often (for those who don’t know, you do get an assist if your shot rebounds and is put back in). Finally, on power plays, Ovechkin will likely be working with a future hall of fame center in Sergei Fedorov, who certainly knows how to dish out the puck.

Next, center is a deeper position than left wing. Again, there’s only one Crosby, but there are more players close to him at center than there are players at left wing that will sniff Ovechkin’s numbers. In addition, Ovechkin took nearly 100 more shots than anyone else in the league last season. No question, Ovechkin is going to lead the league in shots. If your league counts them as a category, there will be weeks where The Great 8 wins it for you by himself. Also, after an abysmal -19 campaign in 2006-07, Ovechkin came back with a +28 season last year. Crosby has been +10 and +18 the last 2 seasons. But the Caps defense will improve this year, and Ovechkin will most likely end up with the better +/- this year as the team gets older and improves around him.

Sid the Kid will beat Ovechkin in some places. He’ll have more penalty minutes (but let’s face it, you’re not drafting these guys to sit in the box). He’ll probably have more power play points if your league uses them. He’ll have more shorthanded points, since under Boudreau last season Ovechkin rarely killed penalties. In fact, when the Caps took bench minors, more often than not it was Ovechkin sitting in the box for the team. So Ovie won’t help you there. But overall, at a shallower position, he’s going to do more for your team overall than Crosby. So if you have the 2^nd pick this year, be happy. Sit back, relax, and take who falls to you. But if you have the 1^st pick, the numbers tell you to grab the reigning Hart Trophy, Pearson Award, Ross Trophy, and Rocket Richard Trophy winner. Unless you’re in my league. Then go ahead and take Crosby.