John Kitna is the #2 Quarterback...

... on my team. Maybe in my heart, too.

Here are a few things to consider when evaluating John Kitna's stats during the Mike Martz era in Detroit:

1. Offensive Line Play

The Martz offense is built in a high-risk, high-reward mold. More pressure is placed on the offensive line to block because running backs and tight ends, if there are any on the field, aren't often asked to aid in pass blocking -- they were headed down field as a 4th or 5th option for the quarterback. Martz also asks his quarterbacks to hold the ball for a long time to wait for some of the more advanced receiving routes in his plays to open up. The Lion's offensive line has been relatively stable in terms of personnel for the Martz era, but never truly comfortable, particularly left tackle Jeff Backus, in the pass blocking game. This has lead to an incredible number of sacks taken by Kitna, often resulting in fumbles, or pressure-induced INTs, as evidenced by his TD-INT ratio.

2. WR health

The Lions have been notorious for using their #1 draft picks on incredibly gifted wide outs over the past 5 or 6 years -- the problem hasn't been finding good WR, it has been keeping those WR on the field. Charles Rodgers, Roy Williams, Mike Williams and Calvin Johnson have all had their problems, leading the Lions to look to guys like Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald to be major contributors over the last few seasons. Furrey and McDonald are fine NFL players, but none of them possess the game-breaking ability of Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson, the team's #1 and #2 options in the passing game, that their offense has been designed around. For a better look at how a lack of healthy receivers has diminished John Kitna's game play, lets examine the first 12 games of the 2007 season (in which Kitna had Williams and Johnson available) against the last 4 games (which Williams was out for).

Through Week 13:

276/416 -- 66.3% completion, 263.1 yards per game, 17 TD, 12 INT, 15 fumbles, 48 sacks taken.

Week 14-17:

79/145 -- 54.5% completion, 227.8 yards per game, 3 TD, 8 INT, 2 fumbles, 3 sacks taken.

It should also be noted that during the 2007 season, Calvin Johnson was addled by back pain for nearly the entire season and he was a rookie learning perhaps the most complex passing scheme in the NFL. Nevertheless, Kitna was a solid play at QB during the first 13 weeks of the season. His overall numbers were still held back by the amount he was hit during this time period, though.

3. Running game (or lack thereof).

Perhaps the most detrimental factor to Kitna's stats, his lack of a running game, is also one of the big reasons I'm high on Kitna this season. In 2007, the Lions had a combined 324 rushing attempts, a league low. Clinton Portis, who led the league in individual rushing attempts, had 325. In response to a dismal running game, which ranked 31st in the league in yards per game, the Lions have set out to have a more balanced offensive attack. More emphasis is being placed on the run, in hopes that it will allow the Lions to look down field to Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson in a more effective way.


So what should you think about John Kitna's 2008 campaign?

1. His passing yards and attempts will decrease.

Detroit is looking for a more balanced offensive attack. Hopefully this means that the Lions will have fewer games with 45 passing attempts and 9 rushing attempts, like their December 16th loss to San Diego. Kitna's passing yards probably won't make it higher than about 3600 this season, but his completion percentage should remain about the same, and possibly even increase.

2. His turnovers should decrease.

My reasoning for this is two-fold. 1: The Lions are planning on making their offense more ball-control oriented. As such, Kitna won't need to take as many chances down field and is going to place more emphasis keeping the chains moving than looking for the home run plays. 2: His offensive line should offer him better protection, decreasing the number of fumbles he commits. His line was largely uncomfortable in the Martz scheme. While it still isn't the greatest unit in the league, 3/5 of the unit has played together for 4+ seasons now and the Lions seem to be ironing out their glaring holes on the right side. 7 step drops, a staple of the Martz offense, are going to be virtually non-existent in this offense, meaning the protection isn't going to be pressured for as long as it was in 2006 and 2007.

3. His touchdowns will increase.

Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson are healthy, finally. We've seen what Williams is capable of, and saw flashes of the sheer athleticism that Johnson offers in his first NFL season and in college. The Lions are committed to the passing game in 2008, they just don't want to completely abandon the run in the process. I'm seeing the 2008 season shaping up as one where Kitna is able to take advantage of a more balanced attack to strike down field more effectively, and put his great receivers in a better position to make the most of their athletic ability after the catch.

John Kitna isn't going to put up a Tom Brady type season but his 3rd campaign with the Lions should be one that offers fantasy owners the most value of his career. His total passing numbers (aside from touchdowns) may be down from the 4000+ yard seasons from 2006-7, but his turnovers, the limiting factor to his value, should noticeably drop. I see him ending up as the number 9-12 fantasy quarterback this season, which is great considering he was probably the #15-17 quarterback taken.

Fearless prediction for Kitna's 2008 stats:

3500 passing yards, 65% completion rate, 25 TD, 13 INT, 7 fumbles.