Week 1 Picks

Week 1 of the NFL Season is finally upon us. Schwartz and I have prepared some notes on each game, made our picks against the spread and offer a little bit of fantasy analysis in regards to each game. We'll keep a running total of our records as the season progresses.

Home team in CAPS.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-4) vs Washington Redskins, Over/Under 41.

Eli Manning always starts strong in the first 8 games of the season and fades. The defending Super Bowl Champions will start in their division on Thursday with a similar roster, but one that goes into week one with some major changes from last year's squad. The Giants D-Line is still reeling from the losses of Osi and Strahan, but an improved secondary and D-Line depth should ultimately prove tough to handle for the Redskins offense. Jason Taylor is not expected to play his first game as a Redskin in Week 1, leaving the Redskins with a suspect pass rush against one of the best offensive lines in football. Expect big days from Eli and Plax in Week 1.

Schwartz: NYG, Over.
DB: NYG, Under.

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) vs SAN FRANCISCO 49ER's, O/U 42.

Arizona and San Fransisco always seem to put a ton of points on the board whenever they play one another. With SF's hiring of Mike Martz in the off-season, expect the 49ers to hang with the Cardinals for a while, but ultimately fall behind due to being unable to stop Arizona's athletic wide outs. Warner, Boldin, Fitzgerald, Gore are all strong fantasy plays in this game.

Schwartz: ARI, over.
DB: ARI, over.

BUFFALO BILLS (-1) vs Seattle Seahawks, O/U 39.

I'm worried about Hasselbeck's back, his lack of recieving options outside of Nate Burleson and a suspect running game. I'm not overly thrilled about the Bills, either. I was also shocked to find out that Bills quarterback Trent Edwards is, in fact, not Trent Dilfer. Marshawn Lynch/Hasselbeck are the only fantasy options I like in this game, but I'm not thrilled with either one due to personnel issues in Seattle and Lynch being the only person on the Bills capable of doing anything with the football.

Schwartz: Seattle, over.
DB: Bills, under.

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) vs BALTIMORE RAVENS, O/U 38.5.

What exactly do the Ravens have going for them here? New QB, RB, head coach. The Bengals aren't exactly looking stellar, either. Houshmandzadeh and Palmer probably end up having ok days in fantasy, but ultimately the Ravens defense is going to at least keep this game close. Baltimore just won't have the offensive rhthym to slay the beast.

Schwartz: Cincy, under.
DB: Cincy, under.

Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) vs CLEVEAND BROWNS, O/U 49.

Huge game for fantasy, huge game for real football. Big time statement game for the Cowboys after crumbling in the playoffs yet again. Can the Browns contain Romo, TO, Witten, Barber, Crayton and Jones? Will an improved Cowboys secondary be able to lock down Braylon Edwards? An new, exciting strategy may emerge this season for the Browns -- clock control. They've got an excellent O-Line, running game and Kellen Winslow, Jr. should be able to keep the chains moving in shorter passing situations. Expect a high scoring affair that comes down to the number of possessions each team has.

Schwartz: Dallas, over.
DB: Cleveland, over.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-9.5) vs Chicago Bears, O/U 44.

The only reason the Bears think their aging defense is any good is because they watched them eat up the Bears offense for a month during training camp and preseason. This line could be INDY -30 and I'd take the Colts. Big day for Manning and co.

Schwartz: Indy, under.
DB: Indy, under. (My long season of agony as a Bears fan begins in earnest.)

Detriot Lions (-3) vs ATLANTA FALCONS, O/U 40.5.

The Lions completely changed offensive systems during the off-season. Expect a more balanced attack to result in fewer turnovers and better clock management. Kitna vs Ryan is an unfair QB matchup, but MLTS sends its best wishes out to Matt Ryan for his first NFL start. Williams, Johnson, Kitna all have nice days in the fantasy world. Interesting thing to watch here is going to be Michael Turner -- can he adjust to being THE guy?

Schwartz: Detriot, under.
DB: Detroit, under.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) vs. TENNESSEE TITANS, O/U 36.5.

Vince Young, LenDale White and Justin Gage vs. David Gerrard, Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor. We'll take the Jags, thanks. Expect nice games from the Jags RBs, they'll be running out the clock in this one from about the 6 minute mark in the 3rd quarter.

Schwartz: Jacksonville, over.
DB: Jacksonville, under.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (NL) vs Kansas City Chiefs, N/A.

Remember when the Pats were putting up ridiculous scores like 56-7 for the first 12 weeks of the 2007 season? Yeah, its like that. Good luck, Brody Croyle.

Schwartz: Pats
DB: Pats

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, O/U 42.5.

Good passing attack (NO) meets good defense (TB). Expect Jeff Garcia to put up some nice numbers. Ultimately the Saints are going to be chasing Tampa Bay late in the game because their defense won't be able to prevent Tampa from scoring. Brees, Colston probably hook up for touchdowns two times to make things interesting to the very end.

Schwartz: NO, under.
DB: TB, over.

New York Jets (-3) vs MIAMI DOLPHINS, O/U 36.

Fantasy relevance galore in this one. What is going on in the Miami backfield? How many carries can we expect for Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams? Will Pennington and Ginn develop some kind of chemistry in the passing game? Brett Favre and the Jets should expect to do anything they want on offense, I'm specifically looking for a long TD pass to Jerrico Cotchery early in the game to show Jets fans the difference between Pennington and Favre.

Schwartz: Jets, under.
DB: Jets, under.

PHILIDELPHIA EAGLES (-7.5) vs. St. Louis Rams, O/U 44.

Brian Westbrook may go for 250 total yards and 4 scores this week vs. the Rams. The Philly defense is excellent and matches up well against the Rams, but then again, who doesn't match up well against the Rams? The Rams still have Holt-SJax-Bulger, so I'd expect them to score a little bit, but this game won't be close.

Schwartz: Philly, under.
DB: Philly, under.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-6.5) vs Houston Texans, O/U 43.

Both of us thought this line was pretty bogus, thinking the teams were seperated by a FG at worst. Schaub, Johnson (you've read before why we like them), Big Ben, Holmes should have some pretty excellent fantasy stats at the end of this one. The Houston defense, specifically Mario Williams, is going to wreak havoc on a suddenly much worse Pittsburgh offensive line.

Schwartz: Houston, outright.
DB: Houston against the spread, Pittsburgh to win the game, over.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-9) vs Carolina Panthers, O/U 41.5.

Carolina is without Steve Smith and his backup, DJ Hackett, has been banged up all preseason. The Carolina offense is going to be suspect at best versus an elite defense such as SD, even when they lack the multi-talented, often juiced up Shawne Merriman. San Diego rolls in this one.

Schwartz: SD, under.
DB: SD, under.

Denver Broncos (-3) vs OAKLAND RAIDERS, O/U 41.

Call me crazy, I really like Oakland in this game. Tony Scheffler is going to have a big day for the Broncos in the passing game, mark my words.

Schwartz: Denver, under.
DB: Oakland, over.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-2.5) vs Minnesota Vikings, O/U 38.

Much to my chagrin, the Packers are poised for an excellent season. Aaron Rodgers should have a pretty solid game against he Vikings, something that will be noticed since it is a pretty good defense these days. Look for Ryan Grant to have a very nice day agains the Vikings and his counterpart Adrian Peterson to be constantly frustrated against one of the emerging defenses in the NFL.

Schwartz: GB, under.
DB: GB, under.