The Offensive Line

Breakout seasons are the key to success in fantasy sports. I already talked about how hard it is to predict who is going to breakout, but that does not mean that it's impossible. While no one is going to be perfect in their ability to predict monster seasons, there is a very important rule that applies to fantasy football breakouts that you should be aware of:

The success of skill position players is more often than not attributable to the offensive line.

With the exception of perhaps the greatest running back in the history of the league (Barry Sanders), running backs cannot succeed without good blockers. Period. Offensive lines give QBs more time (sometimes this works the other way, where a really talented, quick releasing QB can make an offensive line look better than it is), and WRs can find time to get open if the QB isn't forced to throw without scanning the field.

So, with that said, here are three offensive lines I really like, and the skill position players that benefit the most:

Cleveland Browns - Joe Thomas is the best offensive lineman in the NFL. Eric Steinbach, the former Cincinnati LG that Cleveland signed last summer completes the best left side to an offensive line in the NFL. Unsurprisingly, fantasy castoffs Derek Anderson and Jamal Lewis had surprisingly productive seasons last year. This isn't rocket science. I expect that Derek Anderson and Jamal Lewis - who experienced a bounce from 3.6 YPC in 2006 with BAL to 4.4 YPC in 2007 - will hold their jobs for the entirety of this season and be very good players - this will also benefit Braylon Edwards. If Anderson does have a rough start and Brady Quinn comes in, watch out - the ingredients are there for instant fantasy success.

New York Giants - Chris Snee, the best OL on the team, is married to the coach's daughter. They have a converted guard playing tackle. They have a history of false start penalties (prior to last year). But, at the end of the day, this line can run block. Whether it's Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, or Ahmad Bradshaw, the Giants are going to get extremely productive RB numbers. Expect inflated YPC, good goalline numbers, and a run-early run-often mentality. The unit as a whole is not as good versus the pass rush - yet - but if they continue to improve, Eli Manning, Plaxico Burress, and Steve Smith could have stronger years than expected.

Green Bay Packers - From 2004 to 2006, Brett Favre watched his completion percentage fall and his TD/Int ratio follow a dangerous trend:

Completion %, TD/Int Ratio by Year
2004: 64.1% 1.76 Ratio
2005: 61.3% .69 Ratio
2006: 56.0% 1.00 Ratio

Then, a funny thing happened in 2007:
2007: 66.5% 1.87 Ratio

Now, the media will have you believe that Favre rediscovered the fountain of youth, but the reality is that the Packers offensive line contributed immensely to Favre's success and Ryan Grant's emergence as a legitimate NFL running back. Expect surprisingly good numbers for Aaron Rodgers all year - a solid offensive line and 2 very good WRs in Donald Driver and Greg Jennings should be major factors in Rodgers emergence as a very good QB - and fantasy QB - in 2008 and beyond.