We’re going to move to unified MLTS picks this week. Any major differences/disagreements we had will still be treated individually. Our overall record is still pretty sad:
Schwartz: 9-11-11
DB: 10-14-5
Atlanta -5.5 KC o/u 36.5
KC can’t really move the ball, o/u is low, Matt Ryan should play better, opening up Turner/Norwood in the running game – maybe Roddy White puts together a nice game since KC will likely be stacking the box and asking Ryan to beat them. KC is also starting 2 rookie CB. Offensively this game should look similar to Week 1 for Atl. KC is starting Tyler Thigpen at QB, Larry Johnson has been abysmal so far (and moved out of the goal line package) and even Tony Gonzalez hasn’t looked the same. Dwayne Bowe is the only person on KC playing at an acceptable level for fantasy right now.
MLTS Pick: ATL, over.
Start/Sit
Start: Michael Turner (100 yfs+, 1 TD+), Roddy White (75 yds+, 0-1 TD), Dwayne Bowe (100 yds+, 1 TD), Tony Gonzalez (But I’m not happy about it), Matt Ryan (deep leagues), Jerious Norwood (deep leagues)
Sit: Larry Johnson
BAL -2.5 Cleveland o/u 38.5
Baltimore is coming off of bye and gets to face a Cleveland team that has managed 16 points in the first two weeks. This isn’t a traditional bye, however, they didn’t have two weeks to exclusively prepare for the Browns. McGahee should be healthy for this one, expect to see him early and often. Baltimore’s defense appears, after one week of action, to be a complete mismatch for anyone they face – downgrade Browns players accordingly. Last season the Browns fantasy guys did manage a few decent outings against the Ravens. And by decent I mean Jamal Lewis had 90 yards. If I’m a Braylon Edwards owner, I’m worried about the shoulder and his matchup this week is brutal but he’s still a must start.
MLTS Pick: BAL, under.
Start/Sit
Start: Braylon Edwards (you have to, he did alright against the Ravens last year), Kellen Winslow (80+ yds, TD), McGahee (welcome sight for Ravens fans, 100+ yards and a score), Baltimore Defense.
Sit: Jamal Lewis (defensive matchup is too brutal), Derek Anderson (it is possible that he’s not in for the second half of this if it gets out of hand).
BUF -9.5 Oakland o/u 36.5
Shades of Oakland vs. Denver in Week 1? The Bills have proven so far this season that they can do everything they need to (run, pass, defend) when they need to. Oakland comes into this game completely overmatched – Fargas out, McFadden limited. Michael Bush of Oak will be getting most of the carries, JaMarcus can’t carry them yet. Buffalo can run a ton here. Oak secondary will probably contain the big play enough to keep the score low – it is still a very good unit in spite of getting thrashed by the Broncos.
MLTS Pick: BUF, under.
Start/Sit
Start: Marshawn Lynch (Don’t worry about the low YPC vs. JAC), Fred Jackson (Deep leagues), Michael Bush (if you lack a better RB option), McFadden (watch his status prior to kickoff), Trent Edwards (Deeper leagues), Buffalo Defense.
Sit: JaMarcus Russell (Buffalo can stack the box and make OAK try to win with the pass), Oakland WR (See Russell, JaMarcus), Lee Evans (Too much faith in Oakland secondary).
CHI -3 Tampa o/u 35.5
Two really great defenses, no one is going to do much of anything. Forte and Graham are must starts in this one, as are both defenses. Expect a lot of work from the field goal units on both sides; don’t expect a ton of points. Chicago is going to win but Tampa could easily cover this one since it will be something like 12-9, 16-14, etc.
MLTS Pick: Tampa, under.
Start/Sit
Start: Forte (looked solid against Carolina, really liking his game), Graham (eventually John Gruden is going to realize he’s giving half of his carries to Warrick Dunn), both defenses.
Sit: Everyone else.
Dallas -3 GB o/u 51.5
Football fans are given another premiere matchup this week, a possible NFC championship preview and two teams that could easily be bound for the Super Bowl. Everyone in this game is a must start from a fantasy perspective, it could easily turn into a Dallas-Philly all over again. Schwartz really likes the GB defense in this one (and GB in general), and doesn’t think too highly of Dallas on the road. He thought that Dallas being a road favorite in this one after narrowly escaping a team that could be worse than GB was pretty wack and dislikes Romo in this one. On the other hand, Romo has had a history of showing up for big road games (3-0 vs. Giants, Philly on the road), and I’m not really sure any defense can stop the Dallas offense. Can GB defense stop the Dallas O? That is the fundamental question of this one.
Schwartz: GB, under.
DB: Dallas, over.
Start/Sit
Start: Everyone, except perhaps the defensive units.
Sit: You. Watch this entire game, it’ll be compelling.
DEN -5.5 New Orleans o/u 51
The high flying Broncos get another great matchup and should easily reach 3-0. Marshall, Royal, Scheffler, whichever RB Shanahan wants to make into a star, and Cutler should all have monster games against a porous New Orleans defense. NO gave up 29 to the Redskins, a team that has the offensive talent of Marshall alone. On the other side of the ball, all of your NO players are worth starting this week, depending on the depth of your league. Pierre Thomas should have a nice game; it is becoming apparent with the absence of Deuce McAllister that Reggie Bush is incapable of carrying a running game alone. Bush should have a solid game, though; the Denver pass defense is pretty bad. Shockey has to emerge in one of these games, Brees is misses Colston a lot, but the guy will have a solid game.
MLTS Pick: Denver, over.
Start/Sit
Start: All of your Broncos, All of your Saints (Patten is the only questionable one, depending on depth of league).
Sit: The defenses (Why do you own them?).
INDY -5 Jacksonville o/u 41.5
Another Schwartz breakdown, a la NYJ vs. NE last week:
1) Jags defense is good on reputation alone.
2) Colts offense is good on reputation alone.
3) No one on Colts can stop the run.
4) Stoppable force vs. breakable object
MLTS Pick: Indy, over.
Start/Sit
Start: Wayne (another huge year), Anthony Gonzalez (See Welker, Wes circa 2007), Addai (this would be a nice time to bounce back for fantasy owners), MJD (See Colts Injury List).
Sit: Gerrard (Colts D-Line can rush the passer, Jags O-Line is too injured to stop them), Both Defenses.
MIN -3.5 Carolina o/u 37.5
Steve Smith’s glorious return. Also, Gus Ferrote. The Minnesota defense is a much stronger unit than the last time these teams met, when Steve Smith went for over 200 yards. However, Indianapolis exploited their Nickel Coverage last week by lining up Wayne in the slot. DJ Hackett figures to be lining up there for some of the game, perhaps he gets on track (I see him losing a lot of targets this week, he had been averaging 8 per game). By the end of this game, Smith is going to be lining up there if it is close at all. Schwartz and I disagreed on this one.
Schwartz: Carolina, over.
DB: Minnesota, under.
Start/Sit
Start: AP (you have to), Steve Smith (hopefully he won’t punch a teammate), Delhomme, Muhammad (he’s been solid thus far), Berrian (if Gus Ferrote doesn’t get sacked too much, he could catch a deep ball), Hackett (deep league if you feel lucky).
Sit: Ferrote, Carolina running backs (Minnesota is too good vs. the run).
NE -12.5 Miami o/u 35.5
The 2nd Quarter could be Chad Henne time. We had trouble picking the over or under in this one, kind of depends on how lazy NE gets/wants to be after they go up 21-0.
MLTS Pick: New England, under.
Start/Sit
Start: All Patriots.
Sit: All Dolphins.
NYG -13.5 Cincinnati o/u 41.5
Are the Giants getting enough respect with these spreads? Cincinnati could be worse than the Rams.
MLTS Pick: Giants, over.
Start/Sit
Start: All your Giants.
Sit: Carson Palmer (look at his last 7 games), Chad Ocho Cinco (See Palmer, Carson), TJ Houshmandzadeh (See Palmer, Carson), Chris Perry (See Opponent).
PHI -3.5 Pittsburgh o/u 44.5
This is the hardest game of the week to pick. Pittsburgh has to find a way to contain Westbrook, and probably will contain his ground game. Expect Philly to go to him more in the passing game. The Philly defense looked really strong against the run for most of the Monday Night game, with Big Ben dinged up a little bit, Willie Parker is going to be expected to carry more of the offense – is he up to that? By all accounts Philadelphia is a much better defense than any other unit the Steelers have seen thus far. Santonio Holmes has to make his presence felt at some point, expect Pittsburgh to try and work the pass so that Jim Johnson can’t send a DB blitz on every down.
MLTS Pick: Philadelphia, over.
Start/Sit
Start: Everyone. Only concerned about Parker in this game and potentially the Steelers WR depending on how Big Ben looks.
Sit: You might want to sit the defenses.
SF -4 Detroit o/u 46.5
Fantasy Yahtzee of the week. Expect huge games from everyone involved in this one, maybe even Kevin Smith (the 49ers did give up quite a game to Julius Jones last week). The length of the game is the only limit to the score in this game.
MLTS Pick: SF, over.
Start/Sit
Start: Everyone. No exceptions (depending on league depth of course). Bryant Johnson should have a nice game, Frank Gore might score 50 fantasy points, etc, etc, etc.
Sit: Both Defenses (again, why do you own these clowns?)
SEA -9.5 St. Louis o/u 46.5
Call us crazy, but we kind of like the Rams in this one. Yes, they got destroyed by two of the top six teams in the NFC in the first two weeks of the season. Yes, Torry Holt isn’t the same player. Yes, the O-line isn’t what it used to be. Seattle looked pretty shaky against a very similar San Francisco team last week AND the Rams secondary is at the same talent level as the Seahawks WR. This game will be eerily similar to SF at SEA.
MLTS Pick: Rams, over.
Start/Sit
Start: SJax (has to get better sometime, catching a lot of balls this year, which we love), Torry Holt (Come on, old man), Bulger (please don’t get sacked 19 times), Julius Jones (Dallas would probably be pissed about your emergence as a serviceable back, but they have Felix Jones), Randy McMichael (surprisingly consistent first 2 weeks), John Carlson (Joins Scheffler and Fasano as the emergent TE of 2008).
Sit: Hasselbeck (Who is he throwing to? I don’t care how bad the Rams are).
TEN -5 Houston o/u 39
Schwartz loves the Texans (specifically Andre Johnson), I love the Titans (specifically the defense). Tennessee is looking to be one of the top 3 defensive units in the league this year. The Texans got lit up in Week 1 by a pretty dynamic Pittsburgh offense. Chris Johnson should have a monster game (he’s better than Willy Parker, okay), Andre Johnson might be able to reciprocate for the Texans. Potential for a lot of Johnson on Johnson action in this one.
Schwartz: Houston, over.
DB: Ten, under.
Start/Sit
Start: All your Johnsons. Kerry Collins (See Big Ben, Week 1), Justin Gage (See Hines Ward, Week 1).
Sit: LenDale White (he’s getting the goal line carries so you should probably start him if you don’t have a better option, but he’s fat and terrible and I hate things that are fat and terrible), Matt Schaub (see TEN DVOA against the pass at www.footballoutsiders.com)
SKINS -3 Arizona o/u 42
Kurt Warner is playing at the same level he played at from 1999-2001. In case you forgot, he was pretty good at football then. Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald are too much to handle for the Washington defensive secondary. Arizona’s defense has also looked pretty solid, Portis has a good history against them, though.
MLTS Pick: Arizona, over.
Start/Sit
Start: All your Cardinals. Portis. Arizona defense.
Sit: Campbell, Moss, Randel El. Arizona has been pretty strong against the pass thus far.
SD -9 Jets o/u 44
San Diego can’t stop the pass. NYJ haven’t really gotten to show off Favre yet. Expect that to change. The Jets need a big road win to keep everyone happy. Thomas Jones should have a nice day, San Diego has looked awful and lost without Merriman. Phillip Rivers is going to face the best defense he’s seen so far this season on Monday night, we’ll find out if he can keep up the pace. Does LT play? We like Sproles if he doesn’t.
MLTS Pick: Jets, over.
Start/Sit
Start: All your Jets. All your Chargers. Play Sproles if LT doesn’t play, sit him if LT does play.
No comments:
Post a Comment