Buy Low, Sell High

Scheduled NFL bye weeks are upon us in Weeks 4 through 10. Week 4 will be the most difficult week of the season to handle, with 6 teams on bye. Having seen the first 3 weeks shake out, there are several concrete trends that fantasy owners will need/want to address for their teams to become successful or more successful. Aside from striking gold on the waiver wire, trades are the method which affect fantasy fortunes the most.

Before I outline some guys who I would move or trade for, I want to build off of what Schwartz mentioned in his last post by giving a general outline of how I think fantasy trades should work. Remember, when you make a move, major or minor, you want to be able to say that you definitively improved as a team. Even it is not entirely clear at the time, think about how the move works out in the long run. More often than not, you want to make sure you are getting the best player in a trade.

Balanced Deals:

Trades that move equal numbers of players are going to be categorized as balanced. Your objective here is to ideally move a 'Sell High' guy for a 'Buy Low' guy, especially if you can jump up talent tiers in the process. Additionally, if you have some glaring hole on one part of your team and are sufficiently deep in another area, you could use a balanced trade to fill a hole. In my experience it is difficult to pull off a 1 for 1 like this because people generally recognize the relative value of their players, thus...

Unbalanced Deals:

2 for 1, 3 for 2, 3 for 1, 4 for 2 trades, etc. You're giving up more than you are getting back. If you have sufficient depth to pull off this trade, you should more often than not try to complete an unbalanced deal. If you are the player getting the fewest numbers of players back in this trade it is very likely that you are getting the best player(s) in the trade. This is a very good thing. Improving the overall talent level of your team (provided sufficient depth) is the most effective way to get better, quickly. Remember, in fantasy we're looking for the players who are most likely to achieve favorable outcomes. Now, if you aren't a deep team (thinking of 12 team leagues, or leagues that start 3-4 WR/RB instead of, say, the ESPN standard format), one of the best ways for you to improve your team is to trade away superior talent for multiple copies of a slightly lower talent level.

Anyway here are some guys I'm buying and selling, with what I would be looking for in return:

Buy Low

Trent Edwards, QB, Bills: Very quietly, Edwards has put together a nice season so far. 733 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT. The Bills have an excellent running game and adequate talent at WR. Edwards has proved that he is able to make pressure plays (not that we're worried about it in fantasy, but it sure does help). The Bills have a soft schedule (NFC West, AFC West, 2x vs Miami). Don't be surprised if he puts up 3400 yards, 20 TD, 10 INT. His value is going to be limited by his running game -- the Bills are definitely not a pass-first team. Guys I would try to trade for him, John Kitna and Brian Greise (both of whom are Sell Highs). Both of these QBs have put up better numbers per game than Edwards, but both face significant hurdles for the rest of the season. Kitna has a pretty terrible schedule post-bye, Griese will remember that he's Griese and Tampa won't throw 67 times per game.

Selvin Young, RB, Broncos: 179 yards, 1 TD, 2 catches, 15 yards. MLTS loves every Bronco except for Andre Hall, who really got shafted fantasy-wise in the RB committee, but is putting up solid real football stats. Selvin Young is averaging 6.9 yards per carry so far, yet has only gotten 26 rushing attempts. As the Broncos offense continues to burn secondaries, expect even bigger running lanes to open up for Young and Co. His value will be limited because he doesn't get as many goal line touches, but he's going to rack up yardage and will likely end up with 6-8 TDs at year end. I would move someone like LenDale White (who's value is totally skewed by the TD and will diminish because he's fat and bad), Larry Johnson (see White, LenDale), Jamal Lewis (see Browns schedule and lack of passing game) or, if you could trick someone into taking him, Jerious Norwood (186 yds, 1 TD) for Mr. Young's services.

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans: He's played 2 games so far this season. Against Pittsburgh he caught 10 catches for 112 yards. Against Tenessee, 2 catches, 29 yards. The Texans have another game on the road this week, where they will be handicapped by Schaub (8 TD, 15 INT in his career on the road). If there is a week to go get one of the priemere talents in the game, it is this one. The Texans will have 8 of their final 13 games at home, where they have been good historically. If you could move Calvin Johnson (see Detroit schedule), Chris Chambers (value heavily inflated by TDs right now) or pretty much any WR that is playing over their head for Johnson, I would do it in a heartbeat.

Sell High

Eli Manning, QB, Giants: If there is one person that should always been in this category, it is Eli Manning. He is a superb player for the first 8 weeks of the season. This may be the year he finally puts it all together, but you don't want to be the owner taking that chance. His schedule doesn't have Saint Louis and Cincinnati on it for the rest of the season, either. If I'm moving Manning the Younger, I would look to acquire Matt Hasselbeck (he's getting his receivers back and has a ground game again) or Manning the Elder (as much as I hate him, he's an excellent NFL QB and the Colts aren't this bad).

Michael Turner, RB, Falcons: He is the very definition of this term. Michael Turner has put up two incredible games against defenses that have a chance to be historically bad. He put up a very mediocre game (14 carries, 42 yards) against Tampa Bay. He doesn't get to face the Lions and Chiefs again this season, Carolina, GB, Chicago and Philly are his next four opponents. Get the best player possible for him right now, ask for a top 10 WR, underperforming RB (Ryan Grant, Joe Addai) or QB.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs: Kansas City really isn't good at all. I like Bowe's skillset but the Chiefs lack of running game, the presence of Tony Gonzalez and terrible options at QB are going to limit Bowe's value in the long run. 15 catches, 182 yards and 2 scores is very appealing on the trading market, however. I would try to move Bowe for Desean Jackson, Donald Driver or Jerrico Cotchery.