"Week Three: Early Season Surprises" By Michael Gottfried

One of our good friends and readers Michael Gottfried has agreed to post some of his musings on the first few weeks of the season. While The Deeb and I don't necessarily agree with all of his positions, we appreciate any perspective that any of our readers can provide. If anyone else would like to see their name in the bright lights of "Most Likely to Succeed," please feel free to pass along your thoughts on anything fantasy. Michael, thanks for your contribution. We look forward to reading more in the future:

Week Three: Early Season Surprises

As the shape of the league begins to reveal itself for 2008, there are a number of headlines that even the best of analysts could never have predicted. While some stories, like Dallas leading the early season charge, could have been seen months ago by Mr. Magoo, others, like the emergence of the Denver Broncos offensive dominance, would have been a dangerous prediction just a few weeks ago. As we head into week 4 of an already puzzling NFL season, we take a deeper look at a few of the surprises, particularly pertaining to fantasy.

Surprise #1 – The Denver Broncos have an insane offense.

In all likelihood, preseason predictions would have pitted New England, Indianapolis, San Diego and any team not named the Ravens atop the divisional standings. However, with a disappointing 1-2 start for the Bolts, the offensive fireworks from Denver have landed them the top spot in the AFC West and an optimistic outlook for years to come.

The Broncos sit atop the AFC with an average of 432 yards per game, and have been led by their young diabetic’s star performance (his alma mater (and mine) is also 4-0, 2-0 in the SEC). Quite simply, Mike Shanahan has reworked his ageless scheme into a spectacle that makes scoring 30 points seem commonplace. Selvin Young and Andre Hall are averaging 6.9 and 5.1 yards per carry respectively, and with the deep threat of Brandon Marshall and Shanahan’s track record, we can only assume that this production is sustainable. Additionally, the Broncos have added a legitimate weapon in Eddie Royal, and suddenly, Jay Cutler : Tony Scheffler :: Tony Romo : Jason Witten (Scheffler is averaging a thumping 15.3 yards per catch). The issue for the Broncos, however, remains the defense. Other than Champ Bailey, the Broncos secondary has no one to speak of, especially with the departure of John Lynch. However, with a little luck (Ed Hochulli) and the continued production of the Offense, the Broncos should look ahead with much optimism.

Surprise #2 – Reggie Bush is finally being utilized properly.

It took three weeks into year 3 for Sean Payton to realize how to feature Reggie Bush as an every down back, but Bush is starting to deliver some familiar highlight worthy footage that he used to crank out weekly at USC. After an impressive rookie campaign spelling Deuce McAllister, last season’s injury to McAllister left Bush as the every down back, and Payton cranked Bush up the middle to the tune of 3.7 yards per carry. His 6 TDs in 2007 left fantasy owners wary at draft time in 2008, and some were going as far as calling the Heisman standout an NFL bust. Defenses knew that Bush probably wasn’t going to break the big one up the middle, so they simply guarded against the screen and draw game, knowing that was how Bush can kill you when lined up behind the Quarterback.

2008 has proved to be a bit different however, and Lightning is back. While Bush’s rushing production still grabs only about 3.6 yards per carry and 1 TD so far, Payton has gone back to lining Bush up all over the field, yielding an impressive 9.6 yards per catch, 83.3 receiving yards per game and 2 receiving scores. Add a punt return TD against the Redskins and Bush is suddenly averaging more than 1 trip to the end zone per game. Bush got an unlucky start in the NFL because he was drafted as a “running back.” In reality, Bush’s game defies conventional position play, and as long as Sean Payton continues to recognize that Bush is utterly ineffective when lining up behind Brees on every down, his production should continue to earn those precious fantasy points we all expected early in his career.

Surprise #3 – Eli is the best player in the NFL named Manning.

We all knew that Eli would someday eclipse his brother as the better QB in the Manning family, but most thought it would be because Peyton would just retire first. Eli and the Giants made an improbable run through the postseason last year, but skeptics claimed that when the dust settled and the new season began, Eli would probably return to his somewhat shaky form. Not so. Eli’s passer rating of 91.1 leads Peyton by nearly 20 points, and if it wasn’t for two late-game passing fiestas from the Colts in weeks 2 and 3, Eli would have his brother beaten in 2008 passing yards by nearly 100. Eli to Burress has become a tandem the likes of Peyton to Harrison early in their Colts careers, but with the age of the Colts’ offense and the eerie inability for Peyton to get his timing down, Eli has looked like the stronger brother thus far. While Eli is attempting 5 fewer passing attempts per game the brothers are separated by a mere 10 yards passing showing the efficiency of the younger Manning’ game. Additionally, Eli’s TD-INT ratio is 4-1, while Peyton, Mr. Reliable, sports a 3-4. I might add that the Giants are still perfect at 3-0 while the Colts have struggled to a 1-2 spot, with their only win coming in a 4^th quarter miracle over the struggling Vikings. While it is noted that Eli has feasted on the likes of the lowly Rams and Bengals and Peyton has been hit with three of the best defenses in the league in Chicago, Minnesota and Jacksonville, the road does not get much easier for elder brother. With two upcoming dates with the Titans, the yearly clash with the Patriots, another date with the Jaguars, and Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Green Bay and San Diego sprinkled in, the Colts have a gauntlet of defenses that would leave any QB weak in the stomach (and arm). Additionally, Joseph Addai has proved a non-factor thus far, leaving a bucket of pressure on Peyton to win games by himself. So while it is still early and Eli has historically proven that he can choke with the best of them, Eli has, for now, passed big bro atop the family depth chart.