Week 6 NFL Picks

For all of those who wished me a happy half birthday, your sentiments were much appreciated. The Deeb is busy getting busy with his girlfriend, so this round of NFL picks will be brought to you by yours truly. On to the Week 6 picks.

JAX (+3.5) @ Den o/u 48
Jacksonville is a good football team. Their defense isn't as good as it's been for the past few years, but with their offensive line finally starting to get back some of the guys they were missing at the outside, Jacksonville is becoming the efficient offense they were expected to be. Denver cannot win this game unless they figure out a way to stop the run - Fred Taylor and MJD have been running all over opponents for the past few weeks. This game feels like a toss-up, so I'll take the points.
ANS: Jacksonville, Over
DB: Denver, Under

Baltimore (+4.5) @ Indianapolis o/u 39
Everyone is talking about Baltimore's defense in this one, but I'm just waiting for Peyton Manning to explode. After the New York Football Giants win the Superbowl, the Manning vs. Manning debates started again. Then, his safety valve at Wide Receiver decided to (allegedly) assault someone with a deadly weapon. Then, his offensive line fell apart. Expect Manning to finally put together the Hall of Fame-caliber game against an elite defense as he takes his first step towards regaining the mantle of "Greatest Manning."
ANS: Indy, Over
DB: Bal, Over

Carolina (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay o/u 36.5
Is this the game where Jeff Garcia finally gets his job back? Don't bet on it. Carolina is a good team, and with Delhomme behind the helm of this offense, their offense isn't putting their defense in bad situations. The Stewart/Williams combination is devastating, and as stifling as the TB defense has been all season, the offense will stall without Griese and Galloway.
MLTS: Car, Over

Chicago (-2.5) @ Atlanta o/u 43.5
Don't look now, but Matt Forte's numbers have been declining steadily every week. People are jumping on the Kyle Orton bandwagon, but if the Bears have any trouble generating a legitimate running attack, those 8-in-the-box defensive sets might start morphing into serious pass coverage. Michael Turner has been the big story in Atlanta, but he faces a legitimate defense this week, and we expect Atlanta to have difficulty moving the ball with any regularity.
MLTS: Chicago, Over

Cincinnati (+6) @ New York Jets o/u 45
The Bengals have actually held their own against two of the NFC's elite (NYG and DAL). Without Carson Palmer at the helm, though, this team does not have much going for the offensively. The Jets defense has been an above average unit, and their combination of a potentially explosive air attack and a move-the-chains running game should keep the Bengals defensive unit on the field. Expect the Jets to win this one handily, but don't expect another 6 TD day from Favre.
MLTS: NYJ, under

Dallas (-5) @ Arizona o/u 50
Say what you will about Tony Romo's propensity to mail it in in big games, but the guy chews up opponents in games no one cares about. Well, guess what? No one cares about Arizona. Dallas will roll, and depending on the penetration of the Dallas defense, Kurt Warner may not finish the game.
ANS: Dallas, Over
DB: Arizona, Under

Detroit (+13.5) @ Minnesota o/u 47
What if instead of "Jews for Jesus," there was a religion called "Jews for Adrian Peterson?". Seriously, this guy is the second coming of Barry Sanders. We should all recognize this. Someone must spread the gospel. Detroit is not good at football. Jon Kitna is not playing. Minnesota has an elite defense. The factors are all there for Peterson to put up a monstrosity of a day. 200 yards and 3 scores seems like the lower end of expectations. Minnesota's defense may add 3 scores of their own.
ANS: Minnesota, Under
DB: Detroit, Under

Green Bay (+2.5) @ Seattle o/u 46.5
No Hasselbeck, no Branch, no real decision to be made here. Green Bay is going to score points, so the 46.5 over shouldn't be a problem.
MLTS: Green Bay, Over

Miami (+3) @ Houston o/u 45
Ronnie Brown has answered all the doubts about his reconstructed knee, but the NFL is going to adjust to the Wildcat formation that has resulted in so many yards and scores for him the past few weeks. Though Miami has beaten both the Patriots and the Chargers, the Texans have something that neither of those two teams have: Andre Johnson. Avid readers of the blog know that this is a player who we think very highly of, and expect him to have a great day. Schaub will prove that he is the alpha dog of the Quarterback carousel in Houston, and Houston will get their first victory of the season.
MLTS: Houston, Over

Oakland (+7.5) @ New Orleans o/u 47.5
The Saints are coming off a short week after a Monday night game, but it was a Monday night game when the world finally saw exactly how dynamic Reggie Bush can be in the NFL. Sean Payton has done an amazing job integrating him in the offense/special teams, and his ability to break off big plays is astounding. Everyone knows how terrible the Saints defense is, but they just stepped up against the best running back in the NFL, so we at MLTS think they can do the same thing versus a lesser stable of backs.
MLTS: New Orleans, Under

Philadelphia (-5) @ San Fransisco o/u 43
If there's a recipe for injury in the NFL, it's putting a blitzing defense against a pass-happy offense that doesn't believe in protecting the QB. The Eagles don't have their best player in Brian Westbrook, but Donovan McNabb has put the team's future success on his shoulders, and I don't see anyone on the 49ers defense with the ability to prevent him from carrying this offense. A combination of turnovers and great field positions should allow the Eagles to control this game early and put some points on the board.
MLTS: Philadelphia, Over

St. Louis (+13.5) @ Washington o/u 44
Are the Rams this bad? Are the Redskins an elite team? We won't get a definitive answer to these questions this week, but if the Redskins want to continue to be the "it" team of the NFL, a double digit win is an absolute must.
MLTS: Washington, Over

New England (+6) @ San Diego o/u 44.5
Can someone explain to me what is going on with the Patriot offense? I know that Tom Brady is out, but Cassell looks like a competent sub-in, and Welker and Moss are still playmakers. Weren't we supposed to start seeing a re-dedication to the run game after Brady went down? Isn't Maroney the best running back on this team? I have so many questions about this squad, and there is no better time to answer these questions than now, against a reeling Chargers defense. We think the Patriots could win this one outright, and with their defense finally showing its age, we expect the Chargers to put up some points in the loss.
MLTS: New England, Over

New York Giants (-8) @ Cleveland o/u 43.5
That sound you heard that sounded like a cross between a riot and a hayride was everyone jumping on the Giants bandwagon. This could very easily be a trap game, but in order to lose a trap game, the team you're playing has to have the ability to catch the football. Winslow is allegedly missing this game due to swelling of the testes, which takes away one of Cleveland's biggest weapons. We think Hixon's performance at WR last week lights a major fire under Burress, and we expect him to again be the focal point of the Giants aerial attack.
MLTS: New York Giants, Over