Fantasy Basketball 2008: Turnovers

Turnovers are generally represented in NBA fantasy leagues as a negative stat -- you want the fewest number of turnovers per week in a head-to-head format or fewest turnovers on the season for rotisserie. For leagues that include Turnovers, most just treat it as a standard stat compiling category. Turnovers are bad, players that turn the ball over a lot are bad is the thinking behind that category, I suppose. The other way to represent TO is to use Assist/Turnover ratio, which at the very least is interesting because it measures successful plays against unsuccessful plays.

There are two main reasons why MLTS hates Turnovers as a stat in Fantasy NBA:

1. Players who turn the ball over a lot tend to be players that touch the ball a lot. As the number of touches a player gets increase (which at least represents confidence on the part of the team that this player can do well with the ball in his hands), the number of chances to turn the ball over increase. There are players that are adept at not turning the ball over, one of the best in the league being Chris Paul, but, in general, turnovers are a tax on being good at basketball. Since we're really only concerned with using good players on our fantasy teams, this is an unnecessary limit on value.

2. As turnovers are a stat that is often represented as something you want the fewest of, it naturally favors owners who aren't very active or totally inactive. In a competitive league, it is frustrating and detrimental to the overall competition to have someone benefit from inactivity.


So what should fantasy owners do to combat this? Ignore the stat. Players that have possession of the ball can generate the following outcomes: A made shot (points, FG%, FT%), a rebound (of their own miss), an assist or a turnover. Five potentially beneficial things vs. one bad thing. Players who don't have possession of the ball can rebound, block, steal or not turn the ball over. 3 beneficial things and one non-action.