Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Fantasy Basketball 2008: Let's do this.

Points per game is a useless stat. You heard me right.

Fantasy NBA usually revolves around 8 or 9 categories. The major difference between leagues is whether or not a turnover metric is included. FG%, FT%, 3-Pointers Made, PPG, RPG, APG, SPG, BPG are the 8 categories that owners should concern themselves with. Even if your league uses turnovers as a 9th category, ignore the stat (future article). This article is going to discuss why you should largely ignore PPG as a stat when building a successful fantasy basketball team.

Every NBA game has a final score that is based on points scored. Players that receive the most media attention in the league are largely excellent scorers (Kobe, LeBron, DWade, etc). Because of this, undo attention is placed on points scored by fantasy owners. Why? 1/8 (or 1/9th) of your team's success is a function of how many points it scores. Blocks, steals, assists, rebounds and 3 pointers all carry the same weight as total points scored.

The reason why points scored is largely irrelevant compared to those other stat compiling categories (I'll explore FG% and FT% in later articles) is because of the relative rarity of blocks, steals, assists, etc., compared to points. Lets look at this from a perspective of points and blocks, taking a look at the 2007-2008 league leader in each category and then looking at the number of players who registered 1/3 of their output in the category.

LeBron James: 30.0 PPG
Marcus Camby: 3.6 BPG

# of players with 10.0 PPG: 131
# of player with 1.2 BPG: 36

Pretty striking difference, don't you think? Almost 4 times as many players have 10 ppg as opposed to 1.2 bpg.

Consider this: 12 of the 36 players averaging 1.2 bpg don't average 10 ppg. 12 players who are below 131 other players in points per game in the NBA acquire blocks, the rarest stat in fantasy basketball, at a higher rate than virtually the entire league.

Everyone in the NBA can score. Not everyone can block shots, steal the ball, get an assist or rebound. The key to finding value in fantasy basketball is to realize there are a select few stats, BPG and SPG in particular, that are incredibly rare on a per-game basis. The players who are ultimately extremely valuable, are ones that can get the common stats (PPG, RPG, APG) while acquiring blocks and steals at a high rate.

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