How about Global Thermonuclear War. In the interest of keeping the world far away from the Global Depression/Global Thermonuclear War ledge, let's examine a couple peculiarities in the NBA this season. I can easily switch gears if Matthew Broderick decides to make an appearance on the blog, though.
Anyway, guess the player. All stats are per game averages.
Player A: 40.9 FG%, 83.6 FT%, 11.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 8.2 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.4 3PM
Player B: 51.2 FG%, 92.2 FT%, 15.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, 8.1 assists, .5 steals, 1.5 3PM
The percentages give up Steve Nash as Player B in this example pretty easily, but who is Player A? None other than Mike D'Antoni's new PG, Chris Duhon. Sure, that FG% is pretty terrible, but considering that Duhon only takes 8.6 shots per night right now, I think you can live with it. The D'Antoni offense is the NBA's equivalent of the Denver Broncos running game -- plug 'n play. I'm not going to attempt to defend Duhon as the better player, but as a fantasy PG, you could do a lot worse -- Duhon is the #5 PG on ESPN's player rater for the season.
Having just watched the Suns play the Mavericks on TNT, I'm going to go out on a limb and say Nash doesn't average double digit assists this year. That team looks totally lost in every phase of the game. Maybe I'm crazy, but if I'm Sun's coach Terry Porter, I'd be a little concerned about my job security. They've got very little offensive flow right now, there were a number of occurences tonight where Nash led Amare Stoudamire in a pick and roll right into the area that Shaquille O'Neal was occupying, cutting off the drive. Realistic goals for Nash this season are probably 16 PPG, 9 APG with 1.5 3PM and his usual stellar percentages. 9 assists per game will still rank Nash among the league leaders, but if I owned him and wasn't worried about 3 pointers and the positive percentages, moving him for Duhon and another piece might make a lot of sense. I'd try to move Nash on the value of his name and his history.
Player A: 42.5 FG%, 58.6 FT%, 10.9 points, 11.2 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.6 3PM, .8 steals, .5 blocks
Player B: 50.6 FG%, 75.5 FT%, 14.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, .9 3PM, .9 steals, .5 blocks
Again, huge discrepencies in the percentages. Would it help you out if I told you Player A takes fewer than 2 free throw attempts per game? You might have gleaned that these players are both PF, C eligible from the rebounding numbers. Player A is Troy Murphy. Player B is Mehmet Okur. Both of these players are awkward statistically -- they're perimeter big men. If you drafted them, you probably weren't saying, "Sweet, time to win the rebounding title!" Rather, you likely took these guys to bolster a stellar 3s squad by taking one of the few players that will get a meaningful number of 3PM with center eligibility. They also rebound at a decent clip, but both are usually out of the top 30 rebounders in the league.
Murphy is clearly overperforming in rebounding, averaging 3.2 rebounds per game more than his career average. He is able to do this because of an overall lack of rebounding on the Pacers -- Rasho Nesterovich is another center that generally stays 12-15 feet from the basket and he's also sharing time with Jeff Foster. With everyone else on Indiana apparently disinterested with rebounding, Murphy has a chance to put up his best season on the boards yet. The cool thing about Murphy is that he's shooting 4.4 3s per game, which is the highest number of his career. He's historically converted them at a 37.2% rate. This season he is making 36.5% of his 3s, which would lead you to believe his 1.6 3PM per game are here to stay, too.
The only interesting thing about Okur's numbers thus far, well, aside from being worse than Troy Murphy, is that his 3 point attemps are down from 4.4 per game last season to 2.5 per game this season. Hence the incredible leap in FG% (5% above career average) and drop in 3PM from the prior two seasons (1.6 to .9). Look for Okur's shooting percentage to go down in the near future. That or he'll just continue being worse than Troy Murphy in almost every facet of the game.
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
2010-2011 NBA Offseason: The Summer of LeBron
If you didn't know, LeBron James will be a free agent after the 2009-2010 NBA season. The big buzz in the NBA media these days largely revolves around where LeBron and several other incredible free agents, such as Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudamire, will end up signing. Right now, the media is dreaming up possibilities in reaction to the lastest trades made by the Knicks, which free up enough cap space to potentially sign two players to max (or near max) contracts.
So, assuming enough cap space and no problems pulling franchise players from the franchises they've played with their entire NBA careers, which free agents should a team like the Knicks build around? A few of the players in this Free Agent class are certainly injury risks, but for my purposes, I'll ignore injury history. And, just so we're absolutely clear, the Knicks would be playing Mike D'Antoni basketball, trending as much toward the "7 second or less" style made famous early in D'Antoni's tenure with the Suns.
First of all, what does the D'Antoni system require?
1. An aggressive, mistake-free point guard who is also a credible offensive threat. Must be able to play at Nashian levels or at least resemble the decision making ability.
2. Shooters capable of knocking down open threes.
3. Athletic big men that can step out and shoot for mismatch purposes as needed. They must also be able to finish effectively.
4. Because of the athletic requirements of the big men (running the court at break-neck speeds, etc.), they, in general, must also be able to defend bigger players/play out of position. Shawn Marion exemplified this as he's a 3 that had to match up against 4s or even sometimes 5s as needed.
5. Movement without the ball is key, both to generate finishes at the rim/open jumpers and steals/blocks on the defensive end. For example, Amare Stoudamire is an absolutely terrible one-on-one defender, but generates a fair number of turnovers because he's an opportunistic help defender (though, it should also be pointed out that he's pretty bad at help defense, too. When he does help, it does seem to end up in a block or steal a fair amount of the time).
6. High percentage shooters. Yes, the number of wide-open looks the D'Antoni offense generates vastly increases the FG% of the offense. But bad shooters don't make 40+% of their 3s (Nash) or 61% of their FGs (Stoudamire).
This is roughly what the D'Antoni system entails. It does not work as well with poor shooters because those poor shooters squander the extra possessions the offense generates, which ultimately negates the advantage of playing so quickly.
Here is a snapshot of the 2010 Free Agent class, with comments on how they could fit in the system:
Joe Johnson -- Excellent 3 point shooter that has developed into one of the better scorers in the NBA, it might be tough for Mike D to pass Johnson up again after seeing him leave Phoenix after Sarver refused to pay him.
Ray Allen -- One of the best shooters in the league, too old for what the Knicks want to do unless he's considerably cheaper than he is now.
Manu Ginobili -- Another blossoming scorer with divergent skills. Could be an interesting choice at the 3 in spite of being 6'6", though I doubt he's capable of matching up with even the smallest 4s in the league.
Shaquille O'Neal -- Isn't killing D'Antoni basketball once enough?
Stephen Jackson -- Probably too old, but already plays the style in Golden State.
Amare Stoudamire -- Amare is the most efficient scorer in the league. He used to do it with dunks, now he can do it with 15-19 footers. And apparently he's added the 3 ball to his repetoire, or at least he thinks he has.
LeBron James -- The amazing thing about LeBron is that he could defend the 5 and run the point on a Mike D'Antoni team. The Knicks definitely want to build around LeBron +.
Dwayne Wade -- Maybe the best non-Nash guard and best non-LeBron player for the system. The scary thing to remember about Wade is how effective he is off the ball -- something he hasn't been able to do for a few years in Miami.
Chris Bosh -- I'm going to go ahead and say he's the best non-Amare big man for this system. And he might be a little bit better, since he can actually defend the 4 or 5 competently.
Dirk Nowitzki -- Inside-outside game is intriguing, a little old at 32 in 2010.
Tyson Chandler -- Imagine what the offensive numbers would be if Chris Paul ran that alley-oop play more than 3 times per game to Chandler. He's a 5 that might work well in the system because he finishes so well and can defend. D'Antoni 4s and 5s can be monsters without any offensive game beyond five feet from the basket.
Steve Nash -- While he isn't the guy to give a max contract to at his age, wouldn't it be awe-inspiring to see two superstars and a cheap, older Nash run this offense for one or two seasons?
Chris Paul -- He would be an unlikely FA, but he would be dreamy in the system.
Memo Okur -- Probably too old, like Dirk. But he might be a better fit than Dirk because he'll defend the 5.
Mixing and matching these guys, here are some likely combinations:
1. LeBron, Bosh/Amare: Credible inside presence, LeBron good enough passer to make up for lack of super-stud PG. Hell, maybe just run him at point forward. Bosh gives better defense, Amare better offense.
2. LeBron, Wade: Undersized but breathtaking. Both can pass allowing each to work off-ball at times to great effect. Extremely good defenders at their positions.
3. LeBron, Joe Johnson: Johnson can defend 1s, 2s, or 3s, moving LeBron up to a 4. Best 3 point shooter available in the class.
4. Wade, Bosh/Amare: Would invoke the Wade-Shaq days with more athleticism and less defense.
A LeBron/Wade lineup is so tantalizing that it is almost impossible to pass up. However, the most effective combo might be the Johnson/LeBron combo -- especially if Nash were to take a paycut and end up on the Knicks. Johnson is one of the absolute best outside shooters in the league and you know a team with Nash and LeBron on it would be able to hit him with a pass when open every single time. The safest play is to probably go Bosh/LeBron or Bosh/Wade, because size and defense do ultimately matter in the playoffs -- it's not about being a great defensive team overall in the D'Antoni mode, it is about getting stops when you need them, which a Bosh and Wade/LeBron pairing could do.
So, assuming enough cap space and no problems pulling franchise players from the franchises they've played with their entire NBA careers, which free agents should a team like the Knicks build around? A few of the players in this Free Agent class are certainly injury risks, but for my purposes, I'll ignore injury history. And, just so we're absolutely clear, the Knicks would be playing Mike D'Antoni basketball, trending as much toward the "7 second or less" style made famous early in D'Antoni's tenure with the Suns.
First of all, what does the D'Antoni system require?
1. An aggressive, mistake-free point guard who is also a credible offensive threat. Must be able to play at Nashian levels or at least resemble the decision making ability.
2. Shooters capable of knocking down open threes.
3. Athletic big men that can step out and shoot for mismatch purposes as needed. They must also be able to finish effectively.
4. Because of the athletic requirements of the big men (running the court at break-neck speeds, etc.), they, in general, must also be able to defend bigger players/play out of position. Shawn Marion exemplified this as he's a 3 that had to match up against 4s or even sometimes 5s as needed.
5. Movement without the ball is key, both to generate finishes at the rim/open jumpers and steals/blocks on the defensive end. For example, Amare Stoudamire is an absolutely terrible one-on-one defender, but generates a fair number of turnovers because he's an opportunistic help defender (though, it should also be pointed out that he's pretty bad at help defense, too. When he does help, it does seem to end up in a block or steal a fair amount of the time).
6. High percentage shooters. Yes, the number of wide-open looks the D'Antoni offense generates vastly increases the FG% of the offense. But bad shooters don't make 40+% of their 3s (Nash) or 61% of their FGs (Stoudamire).
This is roughly what the D'Antoni system entails. It does not work as well with poor shooters because those poor shooters squander the extra possessions the offense generates, which ultimately negates the advantage of playing so quickly.
Here is a snapshot of the 2010 Free Agent class, with comments on how they could fit in the system:
Joe Johnson -- Excellent 3 point shooter that has developed into one of the better scorers in the NBA, it might be tough for Mike D to pass Johnson up again after seeing him leave Phoenix after Sarver refused to pay him.
Ray Allen -- One of the best shooters in the league, too old for what the Knicks want to do unless he's considerably cheaper than he is now.
Manu Ginobili -- Another blossoming scorer with divergent skills. Could be an interesting choice at the 3 in spite of being 6'6", though I doubt he's capable of matching up with even the smallest 4s in the league.
Shaquille O'Neal -- Isn't killing D'Antoni basketball once enough?
Stephen Jackson -- Probably too old, but already plays the style in Golden State.
Amare Stoudamire -- Amare is the most efficient scorer in the league. He used to do it with dunks, now he can do it with 15-19 footers. And apparently he's added the 3 ball to his repetoire, or at least he thinks he has.
LeBron James -- The amazing thing about LeBron is that he could defend the 5 and run the point on a Mike D'Antoni team. The Knicks definitely want to build around LeBron +.
Dwayne Wade -- Maybe the best non-Nash guard and best non-LeBron player for the system. The scary thing to remember about Wade is how effective he is off the ball -- something he hasn't been able to do for a few years in Miami.
Chris Bosh -- I'm going to go ahead and say he's the best non-Amare big man for this system. And he might be a little bit better, since he can actually defend the 4 or 5 competently.
Dirk Nowitzki -- Inside-outside game is intriguing, a little old at 32 in 2010.
Tyson Chandler -- Imagine what the offensive numbers would be if Chris Paul ran that alley-oop play more than 3 times per game to Chandler. He's a 5 that might work well in the system because he finishes so well and can defend. D'Antoni 4s and 5s can be monsters without any offensive game beyond five feet from the basket.
Steve Nash -- While he isn't the guy to give a max contract to at his age, wouldn't it be awe-inspiring to see two superstars and a cheap, older Nash run this offense for one or two seasons?
Chris Paul -- He would be an unlikely FA, but he would be dreamy in the system.
Memo Okur -- Probably too old, like Dirk. But he might be a better fit than Dirk because he'll defend the 5.
Mixing and matching these guys, here are some likely combinations:
1. LeBron, Bosh/Amare: Credible inside presence, LeBron good enough passer to make up for lack of super-stud PG. Hell, maybe just run him at point forward. Bosh gives better defense, Amare better offense.
2. LeBron, Wade: Undersized but breathtaking. Both can pass allowing each to work off-ball at times to great effect. Extremely good defenders at their positions.
3. LeBron, Joe Johnson: Johnson can defend 1s, 2s, or 3s, moving LeBron up to a 4. Best 3 point shooter available in the class.
4. Wade, Bosh/Amare: Would invoke the Wade-Shaq days with more athleticism and less defense.
A LeBron/Wade lineup is so tantalizing that it is almost impossible to pass up. However, the most effective combo might be the Johnson/LeBron combo -- especially if Nash were to take a paycut and end up on the Knicks. Johnson is one of the absolute best outside shooters in the league and you know a team with Nash and LeBron on it would be able to hit him with a pass when open every single time. The safest play is to probably go Bosh/LeBron or Bosh/Wade, because size and defense do ultimately matter in the playoffs -- it's not about being a great defensive team overall in the D'Antoni mode, it is about getting stops when you need them, which a Bosh and Wade/LeBron pairing could do.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Week 12 Picks: In My Day, The SAT Was Out Of 1600
With highlights yet again!
ATLANTA FALCONS (6-4) -1.5 Carolina Panthers (8-2)
You know, the NFC South is a pretty sexy division. This game is intriguing, not just because of the playoff implications. Just go with me here for a second. The Falcons are like that girl in high school/college/work/church that everyone sort of wrote off and ended up looking good after a summer of eating right, sunbathing (with sunscreen for the anti-cancerous tan), and culturing up a bit. Yeah, we unassuming males are a little turned on by these developments. But are we really going to give up on the known commodity, Carolina, who still looks great, still does that thing with her tongue and still watches sports? These Falcons still have a few things to figure out about love.
CLEVELAND BROWNS (4-6) -3.5 Houston Texans (3-7)
Just think; combining these two expansion (Sorry, Cleveland) franchises would result in one viable team.
DALLAS COWBOYS (6-4) -10.5 San Francisco 49ers (3-7)
Schwartz nearly choked while saying “How ‘bout them Cowboys?”
Give me Frank Gore, Mike Martz, Shaun “Real backups don’t wear helmets” Hill and the points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) -8.5 DETROIT LIONS (0-10)
Has the plight of a sports team ever embodied the plight of the people in its region so closely? The Lions need an Obama-esque GM for change they can believe in. GM and Ford could use Obama-esque GMs, too.
TENNESSEE TITANS (10-0) -5.5 New York Jets (7-3)
Brett Favre has 12 INTs and 8 fumbles on the season. The Tennessee defense has 15 INT and 5 fumble recoveries on the season. Favre vs. that defense isn’t the real matchup, though. The Tennessee running game against the Jets front seven will be where the game is won or lost. Also, obligatory mention of Tennessee not being good enough to go undefeated this year, yadda, yadda, yadda.
Buffalo Bills (5-5) -3.5 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (1-9)
Chiefs: NFL :: Crazy, Alcoholic, Unemployed Step-Uncle: Your family’s Thanksgiving meal
Bills: NFL :: Sober, Rather Be Fishin’, Teacher Uncle: Your family’s Thanksgiving meal
Chicago Bears (5-5) -7.5 ST. LOUIS RAMS (2-8)
The Bears might make the playoffs this season thanks to an incredibly easy schedule. Having watched all of their games, this doesn’t make sense to me. Statistically they may look like a playoff team, but their numbers are propped up by some lopsided games early in the season. I will give the Bears this: you know exactly what you are getting from them every single game.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (6-4) -1.5 New England Patriots (6-4)
It’s pretty shocking that these teams have the same record. Last time these teams met, the Dolphins invoked the Wildcat offense to get around the fact that Bill Belichick owns Chad Pennington. What’ll that crazy Miami staff come up with this time? Excuses postgame?
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (4-6) -2.5 Minnesota Vikings (5-5)
Adrian Peterson >*
BALTIMORE RAVENS (6-4) -1.5 Philadelphia Eagles (5-4)
Let’s break the Eagles down SAT style:
LaDanian Tomlinson (985 YFS, 6 TD, 36 Rec.) : Brian Westbrook (726 YFS, 8 TD, 32 Rec.)
Phil Rivers (2518 YDS, 21 TD, 10 INT) : Donovan McNabb (2711 YDS, 14 TD, 8 INT)
San Diego : AFC Playoffs:: Philadelphia : NFC Playoffs
Philadelphia will henceforth be known as “San Diego Chargers: East Coast Edition.” Anyway, SDC:ECE at least has a viable defense. Against the Ravens their lack of a running game (of late) probably won’t matter at all. SDC:ECE needs this game to stay playoff relevant.
DENVER BRONCOS (6-4) -9.5 Oakland Raiders (2-8)
The line seems high a little big until you realize that Oakland’s point total last week (15) nearly matched their point total for the three games prior (19). Also, Mike Shanahan hates the Raiders/Al Davis – expect another 20+ point shellacking.
New York Giants (9-1) -3.5 ARIZONA CARDINALS (7-3)
Giant homerism continues. Game of the week, with easy.
Also, continuing this theme: Edge James: Shawn Marion::Cardinals: Suns. I mean, would he rather be “the guy” on a team like the Lions and get his 900 to 1100 yards or be a potential backup on the Cardinals and have a chance at a ring?
Washington Redskins (6-4) -3.5 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (2-8)
Second consecutive -3.5 line for a team facing the Seahawks that is vastly better than the Seahawks in every phase of the game.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-6) -2.5 Indianapolis Colts (6-4)
Who was expecting the combined record of these teams to be .500 at the beginning of the season? If your hand is raised right now you are a filthy liar. Wait, are you saying being a filthy liar is everything it’s cracked up to be? Whoa, hold on. You get an hour recess each day AND full health benefits at the filthy liar factory? Where do I sign up? Oh, right next to that giant, flesh-eating zombie dog? I’m there!
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (5-5) -2.5 Green Bay Packers (5-5)
Aaron Rodgers has the same number of combined (pass + rush) TDs as Favre, more combined yards, and 6 INTs vs. 12 for Favre. The Packers really gave up so much by letting Brett go in the offseason! Never mind that the defense is the reason why the Packers are 5-5 instead of 7-3 or better. Nope. Record is only determined by QB (when the QB is named Favre and isn’t responsible for any of the Jets wins).
Friday, November 21, 2008
NHL Update by Bobby Gottfried
OK, so here we are, just over a month into the NHL season. What do we know? First of all, the top two picks in almost every draft aren't even the top guys on their own teams. Yes, Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin are being surpassed by teammates Evgeni Malkin and Alexander Semin, respectively. Malkin and Semin are currently in a race for the points lead, with Malkin ahead since Semin was injured last week (although he could return as soon as tomorrow). Semin is also tied with Thomas Vanek for the league lead in goals. Meanwhile both Ovie and Crosby struggled out of the gate, but seem to be getting back on track now.
Speaking of Ovechkin and Semin, if you're in need of help in +/-, try to trade for someone on the Capitals 1st line. Ovechkin, Semin, and linemate Nicklas Backstrom are all in the top 5 of +/- so far this season, and defenseman Mike Green, who is often on the ice with the other 3, is also in the top 5 (for those doing the math, that's 4 Capitals in the top 5). The line puts up points and doesn't surrender many goals, making them +/- machines.
Final thought on my Capitals homerism before moving on. If you're a Jose Theodore owner, then Brent Johnson has become the must-have goalie handcuff. Even if you don't have Theodore, you may want to look into picking up Johnny. In 8 games this season he's 5-1-2 with a 2.15 GAA and a .931 SV%, both much better than Theodore. He started 5 consecutive games for the Caps, winning the final 4 and going 4-0-1 overall. He also has not allowed an even-strength goal in his last 3 starts. It seemed that Johnny was on his way to stealing the starting gig from Theodore before getting hurt against Carolina. He was healthy enough to back up Theodore the past 2 games, but Johnson says he's 100% again, and coach Bruce Boudreau has not committed to a starter tomorrow at Anaheim. But it seems there will be a timeshare in Washington, so if you own Theodore, you should do everything you can to get your hands on Johnson.
Sticking with goalie handcuffs, another guy who's been performing great is Brian Boucher, filling in for the injured Evgeni Nabokov. Boucher posted shutouts in each of his first two starts this season, and since has continued to look solid as he's started 6 straight games for San Jose, with a GAA under 2, even with one bad performance where he gave up 5 goals. Nabokov is coming back soon, and has shown that he can shoulder the load and stay relatively healthy in his career. But he looked tired in the playoffs last year, and the Sharks have said they want to rest him more. He won't play 94% of the games from here on out like he did last season. Boucher has also earned more playing time, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him spell Nabokov more often, especially in back-to-back games and while he's getting back to 100%. If you're a Nabokov owner and you have room on your roster, Boucher could be a good pickup in case Nabby reinjures himself.
If you need some forward help, see if Milan Lucic is available in your league. He has posted a modest 11 points (5 G, 6 A) through 18 games, and that pace may be about right, or even a little high. But what he doesn't get you in points he gets you elsewhere. He has 43 PIMs through those 18 games. He's also a healthy +7, tied for 23rd overall in the league. So if you need help in either of those categories, he's a solid pickup who will get you a fair number of points on the side.
On defense, take a look at recent Blackhawks callup Cam Barker. In just 8 games this season he's posted 9 points (3 G, 6 A), 6 of them on the power play. He's also hovering around and above 20 minutes on the ice a game, plenty of time to be productive. Trade rumors are swirling around him as the Blackhawks may look to free up cap space, but he's worth a flyer, and it's also worth it to see where he may land if the rumors prove true.Tuesday, November 18, 2008
NFL Week 12 Thursday: Be Glad This Game Isn't Nationally Televised
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
NFL Network, I loathe you. But this coming Thursday, 11/20, I will loathe you slightly less. I'm happy to say that I won't be watching this game, even if I were paying Comcast whatever NFL Network costs.
The 1-8-1 Bengals, fresh off of tying (yes, tying) the Philadelphia Eagles, get treated to the other Pennsylvania team in the NFL: 7-3 Pittsburgh.
Now, I could talk about Willie Parker/Mewelde Moore. Or Big (Bad) Ben. Or maybe even T.J. "Throw me the damn ball" Houshmandzadeh. These guys, as well as Hines Ward's militant corpse and Santonio Holmes would be the natural fantasy plays here. I have to talk about them. This is a fantasy sports venue, how could I not talk about fantasy sports?
Well, instead I think we should examine some of the lessons Ryan Fitzpatrick, Harvard graduate, has learned as QB of the Bengals this season (semester). As explained through the Harvard course catalogue.
Science A-36: Observing the Sun and Stars.
Astronomy. Say it aloud. Feels good, doesn't it? Man has often looked to the stars for meaning, or, in the case of numerous early sky-gazers, persecution. James Harrision and Lamar Woodley of the Steelers are definitely going to be roleplaying as Catholics during this game. Mr. Fitzpatrick should get several chances to see the beauty of the night sky at Heinz Field on Thursday.
Economics 980j. Europe and the US: Comparative Economic Analysis
Sometimes I wonder what happened to NFL Europe. Mr. Fitzpatrick sometimes catches himself saying, "The defensive backs in Rotterdam bit on those pump-fakes all of the time. Where the hell did Polamalu come from on that play, I double-clutched!" After taking this course, Mr. Fitzpatrick should have a pretty firm handle on the difference between real NFL players and the squad he sees each week in practice.
Applied Physics 341,342. Nano-Lasers and Single-Photon Sources
Had Mr. Fitzpatrick studied harder in this class, laser-clad mechanized offensive linemen might have done the trick to keeping Carson Palmer on the field and Mr. Fitzpatrick firmly on the bench, books in tow.
Government 2321. American Politics: Power, Structure, Behavior
Although he's taking it pass-fail, Mr. Fitzpatrick thought it might provide some insight into the massive failure of his franchise. If he doesn't drop it before Thanksgiving.
NFL Network, I loathe you. But this coming Thursday, 11/20, I will loathe you slightly less. I'm happy to say that I won't be watching this game, even if I were paying Comcast whatever NFL Network costs.
The 1-8-1 Bengals, fresh off of tying (yes, tying) the Philadelphia Eagles, get treated to the other Pennsylvania team in the NFL: 7-3 Pittsburgh.
Now, I could talk about Willie Parker/Mewelde Moore. Or Big (Bad) Ben. Or maybe even T.J. "Throw me the damn ball" Houshmandzadeh. These guys, as well as Hines Ward's militant corpse and Santonio Holmes would be the natural fantasy plays here. I have to talk about them. This is a fantasy sports venue, how could I not talk about fantasy sports?
Well, instead I think we should examine some of the lessons Ryan Fitzpatrick, Harvard graduate, has learned as QB of the Bengals this season (semester). As explained through the Harvard course catalogue.
Science A-36: Observing the Sun and Stars.
Astronomy. Say it aloud. Feels good, doesn't it? Man has often looked to the stars for meaning, or, in the case of numerous early sky-gazers, persecution. James Harrision and Lamar Woodley of the Steelers are definitely going to be roleplaying as Catholics during this game. Mr. Fitzpatrick should get several chances to see the beauty of the night sky at Heinz Field on Thursday.
Economics 980j. Europe and the US: Comparative Economic Analysis
Sometimes I wonder what happened to NFL Europe. Mr. Fitzpatrick sometimes catches himself saying, "The defensive backs in Rotterdam bit on those pump-fakes all of the time. Where the hell did Polamalu come from on that play, I double-clutched!" After taking this course, Mr. Fitzpatrick should have a pretty firm handle on the difference between real NFL players and the squad he sees each week in practice.
Applied Physics 341,342. Nano-Lasers and Single-Photon Sources
Had Mr. Fitzpatrick studied harder in this class, laser-clad mechanized offensive linemen might have done the trick to keeping Carson Palmer on the field and Mr. Fitzpatrick firmly on the bench, books in tow.
Government 2321. American Politics: Power, Structure, Behavior
Although he's taking it pass-fail, Mr. Fitzpatrick thought it might provide some insight into the massive failure of his franchise. If he doesn't drop it before Thanksgiving.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Week 11 Picks: Hissing Favorites, Are You The Destroyer?
The NFL season is well over the half-way point, past the fantasy nightmares of bye weeks and injuries are piling up across the board. In Week 11, we've got a pretty good handle on all of these teams and what they're capable of. Knowledge is power, hopefully it'll help out our spread picks. MLTS Picks are highlighted in this edition, Schwartz and I did diverge on one game and that will be explained.
ATLANTA FALCONS (6-3) -5.5 Denver Broncos (5-4)
We know the Atlanta story well by now: Matt Ryan looks like the best rookie quarterback of the last decade, Roddy White has emerged as a top 6ish WR, Michael Turner is being heralded as a great Free Agent signing and one of the top backs in the NFL (in spite of being shut down by every legit defense in the NFL). This team plays well at home and gets rather inspired defense play at times, especially from the pass rush. Atlanta is a legit NFL team right now, maybe not a playoff team in loaded NFC South, but light years ahead of last year.
Denver still possesses the same explosive offense, albiet a little different than it was early in the year. Running-back less (Sorry, I'm not going to dignify Tatum Bell and Peyton Hillis as "Running Backs") but marching on with Cutler/Marshall/Royal/Scheffler/Stokley. Denver will be able to move the ball but eventually the Atlanta pass rush will connect a few times, forcing mistakes. There's also the minor problem of Denver having no discernable defense, staffed almost entirely by backup linebackers and defensive backs.
Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) -9.5 CINCINNATI BENGALS (1-8)
Bill Simmons has the Eagles figured out for gambling purposes: Take them against bad teams and pick against them against good teams. The Bengals are a bad team.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (4-5) -5.5 Chicago Bears (5-4)
Here it is, the great point of contention for the week. Schwartz is taking the Packers (and I don't blame him), where as I am taking the Bears (mostly for the points).
Green Bay throws the ball extremely well and, while their offensive line has not been as good as it was last year, will surely look adequate against the Bears pass rush. In spite of the assumed talent level in the defensive secodary of the Bears, zero QB pressure and virtually no blitzing from the scheme means easy completions. The Packers should put up plenty of points in this game, with a turnover-fest really the only way for the Bears to stop them.
Chicago runs the ball well, maybe not AP well, but well enough to aggrevate the center of the Packers defense. LB Nick Barnett was lost for the season last week, making that Pack run defense even worse than it was. The wildcard here is that Rex "Everytime I spike the ball, I'm intending to flip off every Bears fan in the country" Grossman vs. the Green Bay secondary. As a Bears fan, I'm doing all I can to hold off fear induced convulsions during every Bears passing play. Frightened as I may be, I'll take the points because the running game should keep the Bears close.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (5-4) -8.5 Houston Texans (3-6)
I will make arguments for the Colts in four word sentences (or less!):
Sage Rosenfels. Peyton Manning. Coming off Steelers victory. Colts defense forces turnovers. Rosenfels 4-INT Week 10. Sage Rosenfels. Sage. Rosenfels. Rumors of demise. Greatly exaggerated.
Hopefully that is non-sensical enough for you. Steve Slaton should have a bounce back game against the Colts, assuming the Texans don't fall so far behind that they have to throw the ball every down from the 8 minute mark in the 1st quarter.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (5-4) -10.5 Oakland Raiders (2-7)
Congrats Miami on the great turnaround. No, Jammin' JaMarcus and Run-DMC (Darren McFadden, you really need to earn that nickname against a team not named the Chiefs. Thanks.) won't make a difference. Sit Ted Ginn vs Nnamdi "Where pass plays go to die" Asomugha.
NEW YORK GIANTS (8-1) -6.5 Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
The Giants homerism continues. The Ravens are a great defense and this will surely be a test for the Giants. However, if there is one thing the Giants do well it is wear down defenses with their offensive line. B-Jac and Derrick Ward will be running for 6-7 yard gains by the end of this. Also, Joe Flacco vs. that pass rush.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (6-3) -3.5 Minnesota Vikings (5-4)
Tampa can theoretically stop AP, meaning this game will force Brad Childress' playcalling and Gus Frerotte's quarterbacking to win the Vikings a game against a good defense. This is very unlikely. The Minnesota defense should keep this close for a while, but give Tampa the home and coaching edge.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (2-7) -3.5 St. Louis Rams (2-7)
Putrid vs. Decomposing. This game would be more entertaining if one team was entirely replaced by mutant zombies that, instead of tackling, attempted to bring down ball carriers by eating brains. Let's see Frank Gore put up 200 total yards against that defense!
Arizona Cardinals (6-3) -3.5 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (2-7)
I am not encouraged by the return of Matt "The Hass" Hasselbeck. Best passing offense in the NFL vs. one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL. Good luck, Seattle.
ATLANTA FALCONS (6-3) -5.5 Denver Broncos (5-4)
We know the Atlanta story well by now: Matt Ryan looks like the best rookie quarterback of the last decade, Roddy White has emerged as a top 6ish WR, Michael Turner is being heralded as a great Free Agent signing and one of the top backs in the NFL (in spite of being shut down by every legit defense in the NFL). This team plays well at home and gets rather inspired defense play at times, especially from the pass rush. Atlanta is a legit NFL team right now, maybe not a playoff team in loaded NFC South, but light years ahead of last year.
Denver still possesses the same explosive offense, albiet a little different than it was early in the year. Running-back less (Sorry, I'm not going to dignify Tatum Bell and Peyton Hillis as "Running Backs") but marching on with Cutler/Marshall/Royal/Scheffler/Stokley. Denver will be able to move the ball but eventually the Atlanta pass rush will connect a few times, forcing mistakes. There's also the minor problem of Denver having no discernable defense, staffed almost entirely by backup linebackers and defensive backs.
Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) -9.5 CINCINNATI BENGALS (1-8)
Bill Simmons has the Eagles figured out for gambling purposes: Take them against bad teams and pick against them against good teams. The Bengals are a bad team.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (4-5) -5.5 Chicago Bears (5-4)
Here it is, the great point of contention for the week. Schwartz is taking the Packers (and I don't blame him), where as I am taking the Bears (mostly for the points).
Green Bay throws the ball extremely well and, while their offensive line has not been as good as it was last year, will surely look adequate against the Bears pass rush. In spite of the assumed talent level in the defensive secodary of the Bears, zero QB pressure and virtually no blitzing from the scheme means easy completions. The Packers should put up plenty of points in this game, with a turnover-fest really the only way for the Bears to stop them.
Chicago runs the ball well, maybe not AP well, but well enough to aggrevate the center of the Packers defense. LB Nick Barnett was lost for the season last week, making that Pack run defense even worse than it was. The wildcard here is that Rex "Everytime I spike the ball, I'm intending to flip off every Bears fan in the country" Grossman vs. the Green Bay secondary. As a Bears fan, I'm doing all I can to hold off fear induced convulsions during every Bears passing play. Frightened as I may be, I'll take the points because the running game should keep the Bears close.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (5-4) -8.5 Houston Texans (3-6)
I will make arguments for the Colts in four word sentences (or less!):
Sage Rosenfels. Peyton Manning. Coming off Steelers victory. Colts defense forces turnovers. Rosenfels 4-INT Week 10. Sage Rosenfels. Sage. Rosenfels. Rumors of demise. Greatly exaggerated.
Hopefully that is non-sensical enough for you. Steve Slaton should have a bounce back game against the Colts, assuming the Texans don't fall so far behind that they have to throw the ball every down from the 8 minute mark in the 1st quarter.
New Orleans Saints (4-5) -4.5 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (1-8)
MIAMI DOLPHINS (5-4) -10.5 Oakland Raiders (2-7)
Congrats Miami on the great turnaround. No, Jammin' JaMarcus and Run-DMC (Darren McFadden, you really need to earn that nickname against a team not named the Chiefs. Thanks.) won't make a difference. Sit Ted Ginn vs Nnamdi "Where pass plays go to die" Asomugha.
NEW YORK GIANTS (8-1) -6.5 Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
The Giants homerism continues. The Ravens are a great defense and this will surely be a test for the Giants. However, if there is one thing the Giants do well it is wear down defenses with their offensive line. B-Jac and Derrick Ward will be running for 6-7 yard gains by the end of this. Also, Joe Flacco vs. that pass rush.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (6-3) -3.5 Minnesota Vikings (5-4)
Tampa can theoretically stop AP, meaning this game will force Brad Childress' playcalling and Gus Frerotte's quarterbacking to win the Vikings a game against a good defense. This is very unlikely. The Minnesota defense should keep this close for a while, but give Tampa the home and coaching edge.
CAROLINA PANTHERS (7-2) -14.5 Detroit Lions (0-9)
Petitioning for the Detroit Lions to be named the "Detroit Play all of your fantasy players against us." For public awareness.
Tennessee Titans (9-0) -2.5 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (4-5)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (2-7) -3.5 St. Louis Rams (2-7)
Putrid vs. Decomposing. This game would be more entertaining if one team was entirely replaced by mutant zombies that, instead of tackling, attempted to bring down ball carriers by eating brains. Let's see Frank Gore put up 200 total yards against that defense!
Arizona Cardinals (6-3) -3.5 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (2-7)
I am not encouraged by the return of Matt "The Hass" Hasselbeck. Best passing offense in the NFL vs. one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL. Good luck, Seattle.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (6-3) -4.5 San Diego Chargers (4-5)
2008 will be known as the year LT went from 1st pick to late 2nd-rounder.
Dallas Cowboys (5-4) -1.5 WASHINGTON REDSKINS (6-3)
Dear Clinton Portis' MCL,
Thanks for forcing us to take the Cowboys.
Irreverently,
MLTS Fantasy
BUFFALO BILLS (5-4) -4.5 Cleveland Browns (3-6)
Worst game in Monday Night Football History? Look for more of the Browns offense that showed up last week -- lots of Kellen Winslow, Jr. and Jamal Lewis. The training wheels will still be on for B-Quinn.
Trent Edwards, Lee Evans and Marshawn Lynch were doing their best to look like small market "Big Three" early in the season. Now they just look small.
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