Week 4 Picks

Just a note about the start/sit: A lot of fantasy matchups this week are pretty terrible. However, due to 6 teams being on bye this week, a large number of the people I’m recommending to sit will need to be in lineups this week, unless it is an ultra-shallow format (Sup ESPN Standard League). Expect fantasy scoring to be pretty low in most games.

Home team in caps.

Buffalo (-8) ST. LOUIS, O/U 41.5

The soft schedule for the 3-0 Bills continues this week. Expect big days from everyone on the Bills, they should be able to move the ball at will. Newly promoted Trent Green is going to spend most of the day on his back, if you own any Rams, don’t expect them to do much in this one. Reports around the St. Louis locker room indicate that the team has pretty much given up on Linehan, in light of the Bulger demotion.

MLTS Pick: Buffalo, over.

Start: Every Bills player, including Fred Jackson if your league is deep enough (garbage time after the 2^nd quarter). Steven Jackson is the only Ram I would feel comfortable starting, but you may want to consider other options.

Sit: Holt, Green. Unless your league is really deep and you don’t have any other options, I would sit these guys. I’m expecting no more than 13 points out of the Rams this week.

CAROLINA (-7) Atlanta, O/U 39.5

Remember that 14 rush, 42 yards performance from Michael Turner in Week 2? I’m expecting something very similar in Week 4 from the NFL’s leading rusher. Trade him now if you can, as per my advice in the previous article. Carolina should be able to effectively take away the run and force Matt Ryan to beat them, a combination MLTS is not willing to endorse. The legitimacy of the Atlanta running game gets a major test this weekend. Expect Atlanta to try to take away the run from Carolina, but it won’t really make much of a difference. Smith, Muhammad, Hackett, Rosario and Delhomme should be able to do enough to win this game.

MLTS Pick: Carolina, under.

Start: Carolina passing game. Carolina defense.

Sit: Turner (you can’t really sit him, but I wouldn’t expect another 100 yard game from him for a while), Ryan, Roddy White.

CHICAGO (NL) Philadelphia

The Bears come into this game 1-2 when they could have easily been 3-0. The disappointment of giving up two 4^th quarter leads will inspire the defense to be dominant, as they were in the first week and first halves of week 2 and 3. Lots of questions about this game, though. Will the Bears be able to move the ball at all? The Philly defense has taken away the running game all season and gotten after the QB. Bears WR and QB are at a complete disadvantage against the Philadelphia DBs. On Philly’s side of the ball, will they be able to move the ball well if Westbrook isn’t playing? Reports are mixed on whether or not he goes this week. If he does play, will he get 30+ touches?

MLTS Pick: Philly

Start: McNabb, DeSean Jackson, LJ Smith.

Sit: Forte, Westbrook/Buckhalter (unless you don’t have a better option).

CINCINNATI (-3) Cleveland, O/U 44.5

The good news: Some once delicious fantasy offenses will most likely light it up this week. The bad news: One of these teams will get their first win. The All-Ohio Bowl aka The Toilet Bowl comes at a great time for both of these teams, they really need to get their offenses into rhythm and on track for the rest of the season if they plan to be a factor at all. We’re expecting a lot of points in this one, but think that both teams will try to establish the run first; something neither has been able to do in the first three weeks.

MLTS Pick: Cincy, under.

Start: Every offensive player, even Chad Johnson and Derek Anderson.

Sit: You shouldn’t own the defenses, so don’t worry about sitting them.

DALLAS (-11) Washington, O/U 46

We were confused by this line. Yes, Dallas appears to have all of the ingredients of a great team. No, Washington doesn’t look to be all that great, especially compared to 2/3 teams that Dallas has defeated. Yes, it is an NFC East game, games that historically are close and not very high scoring (though maybe Dallas/Philly threw that out the window). Jason Taylor isn’t playing for the Redskins, expect the pass rush to be lacking against an excellent Dallas O-Line.

MLTS Pick: Redskins, over.

Start: All of the offensive players, including Dallas #3 WR Miles Austin if you are in a deep league. The Dallas defense is pretty good, but we’re banking on the Redskins being able to put up 18-20 points.

Sit: Redskins defense.

Denver (-9) KANSAS CITY, O/U 46.5

This is another line we were really confused by – Denver looks like they have the ability to score 45 on anyone and the Chiefs are one of the worst defenses in the NFL. This one could get ugly quick; our only concern for the betting line is that Denver will go into kill the clock mode midway through the second quarter. The KC offensive players should be able to do ok from a fantasy perspective, except that they won’t be touching the ball for most of the game.

MLTS Pick: Denver, over.

Start: All your Broncos. Dwayne Bowe, Tony Gonzalez.

Sit: Larry Johnson (in case you haven’t figured it out, I hate this guy. And I was accurate on my call last week until LJ inexplicably remembered what NFL running backs are paid to do and ran for 70 yard TD). Huard (I guess he’s the starter again).

JACKSONVILLE (-7.5) Houston, O/U 42

Jacksonville isn’t that great. They’re alright, I could see them turning their season around pretty quickly and making a playoff run of it, but my reason for taking the Jags this week is not because they’re good, it is because Matt Schaub is so bad on the road. 8 TD, 15 INT on the road in his career. He’s got a QB rating of 62 (it’s not a great stat, but it’ll work for my purposes) against the AFC South in his career. I’m not expecting anything out of the Houston passing game in this one.

MLTS Pick: Jags, under.

Start: MJD, Gerrard, Taylor. Andre Johnson, Slaton.

Sit: Schaub.

NEW ORLEANS (-5.5) San Francisco O/U 48

Everyone wants to be playing N.O. in fantasy. And everyone wants their players to be in the Mike Martz offense. Two pretty good offenses meet up in this one, but you have to give an edge to the SF defense, surprisingly. N.O. is really banged up, expect to see a lot of Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas in this one. On the other side of the ball, O’Sullivan, Gore and Bryant Johnson figure to be strong plays this week. Bush vs. Gore. 2000 election, ho! Too bad we can’t go back in time to change the results of that one.

MLTS Pick: In Gore we trust, over.

Start: Every healthy offensive player. Expect Pierre Thomas to be especially useful in this one for the Saints.

Sit: Once again, why do you own these defenses?

NY JETS (-1.5) Arizona O/U 45

Alex and I were completely flabbergasted by this matchup. The Jets are having some major communication issues offensively, holding back an offense that should end up being pretty good. Favre threw 2 INT last week but let’s be fair – they weren’t typical Favre INTs: Cromartie made a great play on the first and his WR ran the wrong way on the other one. Arizona wasn’t quite as high flying as I thought they would be last week, but if Phillip Rivers’ game (19/25, 250 yds, 3 TD) against the Jets was any indication of what is to come, expect another huge day from the Arizona passing game. Favre and the Jets might be grounded by the unusual schemes Arizona likes to use.

MLTS Pick: Arizona, over.

Start: Arizona passing game. If NT Kris Jenkins doesn’t play for the Jets, I like Hightower and Edge. You have to think that Favre and the Jets will have an offensive explosion one of these days, right?

Sit: Jets defense.

San Diego (-7.5) OAKLAND O/U 45

SD looked great on MNF, no ifs, ands, or buts about it. They should be 3-0 and they’ll be 2-2 after this game. Oakland has played better than expected, particularly QB JaMarcus Russell, but if McFadden is limited by turf toe (reporters following the team say he’s at 75% speed) and Fargas is out, there isn’t much to like about their offense. Look for SD to cover a large amount of the over/under themselves. Oakland will score, though. The SD defense is really hurt.

MLTS Pick: SD, over.

Start: SD. Maybe Michael Bush/McFadden

Sit: Oakland.

TAMPA BAY (-1) Green Bay O/U 42.5

Which Bay will prove to be the better? Tampa is getting a home bounce with this line, I suppose. Schwartz and I don’t really think Tampa can hold a candle to Green Bay on offense, but their defense should keep them in the game. Brian Griese isn’t going to throw 67 times this week (I think) so expect a little more out of the TB running backs, but not much. Ryan Grant needs to get healthy in a hurry for GB to emerge as one of the top 4 teams in the NFC.

MLTS Pick: Green Bay, over (we’re lovers of points this week).

Start: GB passing game (remember, Kyle Orton had a good day against TB last week).

Sit: TB offense (expecting them to score, but not often). GB ground game.

TENNESSEE (-3) Minnesota O/U 36

Game of the week. And, like those DirecTV ads, you likely won’t see it on cable! Tennessee has all of the making of an elite defense. Minnesota is still starting Gus Frerotte. Not expecting much out of anyone in this game from a fantasy perspective, except for the defenses. Chris Johnson’s production is still going to be limited by big, fat LenDale White.

MLTS Pick: Tennessee, under.

Start: Both defenses. Chris Johnson. Adrian Peterson.

Sit: Everyone else.

PITTSBURGH (NL) Baltimore

At the time of writing this, there wasn’t a line available for this game. Pittsburgh comes into this game pretty beat up – Big Ben is recovering from the beating the Eagles gave him, Parker is out. Rashard Mendenhall gets the pleasure of facing one of the elite defenses in the NFL for his first start. Good luck and welcome to the NFL. Expect this to be a pretty low scoring affair; both defenses should be excellent plays this week.

MLTS Pick: Baltimore

Start: Both defenses. Baltimore RBs have looked pretty good thus far, they’re going to get a major test this week. McGahee should be a decent start and McClain will be an ok start in deep leagues.

Sit: Pittsburgh offense, especially Mendenhall. I feel best about Heath Miller, Hines Ward in this matchup. If you have other options at QB and WR, sit Big Ben and Holmes.

Buy Low, Sell High

Scheduled NFL bye weeks are upon us in Weeks 4 through 10. Week 4 will be the most difficult week of the season to handle, with 6 teams on bye. Having seen the first 3 weeks shake out, there are several concrete trends that fantasy owners will need/want to address for their teams to become successful or more successful. Aside from striking gold on the waiver wire, trades are the method which affect fantasy fortunes the most.

Before I outline some guys who I would move or trade for, I want to build off of what Schwartz mentioned in his last post by giving a general outline of how I think fantasy trades should work. Remember, when you make a move, major or minor, you want to be able to say that you definitively improved as a team. Even it is not entirely clear at the time, think about how the move works out in the long run. More often than not, you want to make sure you are getting the best player in a trade.

Balanced Deals:

Trades that move equal numbers of players are going to be categorized as balanced. Your objective here is to ideally move a 'Sell High' guy for a 'Buy Low' guy, especially if you can jump up talent tiers in the process. Additionally, if you have some glaring hole on one part of your team and are sufficiently deep in another area, you could use a balanced trade to fill a hole. In my experience it is difficult to pull off a 1 for 1 like this because people generally recognize the relative value of their players, thus...

Unbalanced Deals:

2 for 1, 3 for 2, 3 for 1, 4 for 2 trades, etc. You're giving up more than you are getting back. If you have sufficient depth to pull off this trade, you should more often than not try to complete an unbalanced deal. If you are the player getting the fewest numbers of players back in this trade it is very likely that you are getting the best player(s) in the trade. This is a very good thing. Improving the overall talent level of your team (provided sufficient depth) is the most effective way to get better, quickly. Remember, in fantasy we're looking for the players who are most likely to achieve favorable outcomes. Now, if you aren't a deep team (thinking of 12 team leagues, or leagues that start 3-4 WR/RB instead of, say, the ESPN standard format), one of the best ways for you to improve your team is to trade away superior talent for multiple copies of a slightly lower talent level.

Anyway here are some guys I'm buying and selling, with what I would be looking for in return:

Buy Low

Trent Edwards, QB, Bills: Very quietly, Edwards has put together a nice season so far. 733 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT. The Bills have an excellent running game and adequate talent at WR. Edwards has proved that he is able to make pressure plays (not that we're worried about it in fantasy, but it sure does help). The Bills have a soft schedule (NFC West, AFC West, 2x vs Miami). Don't be surprised if he puts up 3400 yards, 20 TD, 10 INT. His value is going to be limited by his running game -- the Bills are definitely not a pass-first team. Guys I would try to trade for him, John Kitna and Brian Greise (both of whom are Sell Highs). Both of these QBs have put up better numbers per game than Edwards, but both face significant hurdles for the rest of the season. Kitna has a pretty terrible schedule post-bye, Griese will remember that he's Griese and Tampa won't throw 67 times per game.

Selvin Young, RB, Broncos: 179 yards, 1 TD, 2 catches, 15 yards. MLTS loves every Bronco except for Andre Hall, who really got shafted fantasy-wise in the RB committee, but is putting up solid real football stats. Selvin Young is averaging 6.9 yards per carry so far, yet has only gotten 26 rushing attempts. As the Broncos offense continues to burn secondaries, expect even bigger running lanes to open up for Young and Co. His value will be limited because he doesn't get as many goal line touches, but he's going to rack up yardage and will likely end up with 6-8 TDs at year end. I would move someone like LenDale White (who's value is totally skewed by the TD and will diminish because he's fat and bad), Larry Johnson (see White, LenDale), Jamal Lewis (see Browns schedule and lack of passing game) or, if you could trick someone into taking him, Jerious Norwood (186 yds, 1 TD) for Mr. Young's services.

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans: He's played 2 games so far this season. Against Pittsburgh he caught 10 catches for 112 yards. Against Tenessee, 2 catches, 29 yards. The Texans have another game on the road this week, where they will be handicapped by Schaub (8 TD, 15 INT in his career on the road). If there is a week to go get one of the priemere talents in the game, it is this one. The Texans will have 8 of their final 13 games at home, where they have been good historically. If you could move Calvin Johnson (see Detroit schedule), Chris Chambers (value heavily inflated by TDs right now) or pretty much any WR that is playing over their head for Johnson, I would do it in a heartbeat.

Sell High

Eli Manning, QB, Giants: If there is one person that should always been in this category, it is Eli Manning. He is a superb player for the first 8 weeks of the season. This may be the year he finally puts it all together, but you don't want to be the owner taking that chance. His schedule doesn't have Saint Louis and Cincinnati on it for the rest of the season, either. If I'm moving Manning the Younger, I would look to acquire Matt Hasselbeck (he's getting his receivers back and has a ground game again) or Manning the Elder (as much as I hate him, he's an excellent NFL QB and the Colts aren't this bad).

Michael Turner, RB, Falcons: He is the very definition of this term. Michael Turner has put up two incredible games against defenses that have a chance to be historically bad. He put up a very mediocre game (14 carries, 42 yards) against Tampa Bay. He doesn't get to face the Lions and Chiefs again this season, Carolina, GB, Chicago and Philly are his next four opponents. Get the best player possible for him right now, ask for a top 10 WR, underperforming RB (Ryan Grant, Joe Addai) or QB.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs: Kansas City really isn't good at all. I like Bowe's skillset but the Chiefs lack of running game, the presence of Tony Gonzalez and terrible options at QB are going to limit Bowe's value in the long run. 15 catches, 182 yards and 2 scores is very appealing on the trading market, however. I would try to move Bowe for Desean Jackson, Donald Driver or Jerrico Cotchery.

"Ovie vs Crosby" by Bobby Gottfried

Taking a step back from fantasy football, here is an article written by our good friend Bobby Gottfried, who knows more about hockey than Schwartz and me combined. Thanks for the contribution, Bobalew.

Over the last few seasons fantasy hockey has steadily, if slowly, grown in popularity. For those of you who do play, your drafts are probably coming up soon, and there’s one big question raging among fantasy hockey buffs. No, not how to fit the phrase “5 hole” into your team name now that you can’t use Jagr Bombs anymore, but rather who the 1^st overall pick should be: Alex Ovechkin or Sidney Crosby.

I will preface this by stating that I am a Capitals fan, and so I am slightly biased. If I have the 1^st pick, I’m taking Ovechkin, no questions asked. So to take the bias out of this, I will use numbers to prove my point, which is that Ovechkin is the smart pick at number 1.

Last season in 82 games Ovechkin put up 65 goals and 47 assists, a total of 112 points. In 53 games Crosby had 24 goals, 48 assists for a total of 72 points. Yeah, Crosby was hurt and missed time last season, but I’m not worried about it this year. Both guys get you 1.4 points per game. Points are a wash. But here’s where the decision starts to shift to Ovechkin. Only one player can score a goal, but two can get assists each time the puck goes into the net. Assists are easier to find. Draft right and you can get a lot of assist help from your defensemen, while with a few exceptions, your goals will come from forwards. There aren’t as many scorers in the league as playmakers. Last season, 20 players had 50+ assists. Only 10 players scored 40 goals, 3 scored 50, and no one came within 13 tallies of Ovie’s 65. Alex the Great was also the leader in game winning goals (11) if your league uses them.

People wonder if Ovechkin can keep up his pace from last season. While I can’t, for obvious reasons, claim to know for sure, all signs point to yes. His problem in his first two seasons was that he lacked consistent center play on his line. He has that now with one of the best young centers in the league, Nicklas Backstrom. In addition, he’ll play with right winger Chris Clark, who missed most of last season with a groin injury. Clark is known for parking himself in front of the net to set screens and clean up rebounds. Screens will help Ovechkin continue to score, and the rebound play will gain Ovechkin a few more assists, since he sends the puck at the net so often (for those who don’t know, you do get an assist if your shot rebounds and is put back in). Finally, on power plays, Ovechkin will likely be working with a future hall of fame center in Sergei Fedorov, who certainly knows how to dish out the puck.

Next, center is a deeper position than left wing. Again, there’s only one Crosby, but there are more players close to him at center than there are players at left wing that will sniff Ovechkin’s numbers. In addition, Ovechkin took nearly 100 more shots than anyone else in the league last season. No question, Ovechkin is going to lead the league in shots. If your league counts them as a category, there will be weeks where The Great 8 wins it for you by himself. Also, after an abysmal -19 campaign in 2006-07, Ovechkin came back with a +28 season last year. Crosby has been +10 and +18 the last 2 seasons. But the Caps defense will improve this year, and Ovechkin will most likely end up with the better +/- this year as the team gets older and improves around him.

Sid the Kid will beat Ovechkin in some places. He’ll have more penalty minutes (but let’s face it, you’re not drafting these guys to sit in the box). He’ll probably have more power play points if your league uses them. He’ll have more shorthanded points, since under Boudreau last season Ovechkin rarely killed penalties. In fact, when the Caps took bench minors, more often than not it was Ovechkin sitting in the box for the team. So Ovie won’t help you there. But overall, at a shallower position, he’s going to do more for your team overall than Crosby. So if you have the 2^nd pick this year, be happy. Sit back, relax, and take who falls to you. But if you have the 1^st pick, the numbers tell you to grab the reigning Hart Trophy, Pearson Award, Ross Trophy, and Rocket Richard Trophy winner. Unless you’re in my league. Then go ahead and take Crosby.

Trading and the Waiver Wire

Our recent posts have contained a lot of pretty detailed analysis, so I wanted to take a step back and do one of my favorite things - write about the overarching strategy behind one of my favorite things to do in fantasy sports - trading.

Week 3 is as good a time as any to start this conversation. We've seen enough games to figure out which teams/players are significantly better/worse than we expected. We have our first set of bye-weeks, which means that roster depth becomes as important a part of the discussion as having stud starters, and as a team owner, you are probably beginning to have a grasp on whether or not your team is any good.

Trading in fantasy is like trading in the stock market - obviously, you want to buy low and sell high - but this is much easier said than done (in both places). But the concept of buying low and selling high is a little different in fantasy sports - if an athlete is performing at a level completely unexpected at the beginning of the season, is he simply getting unlucky, or is there something beneath the surface of his performance which can clarify the spike or collapse in his value?

When answering this question, a list of potential targets shouldn't be too difficult to muster - indeed, I think The Deeb is going to be discussing a few of them in his next post. What I do want to spend more time on is figuring out the best way to get the players you want.

When making trades, you need to consider the value of the roster spot and your team's depth. For instance, even though bye weeks are coming up and having an extra productive WR is nice, trades in which you give up an extra player are almost always ideal if you trust your ability to find salvageable talent on the waiver wire. In one instance I faced after Week 2, I had my eye on Bobby Engram, a receiver drafted for $1 and subsequently dropped into the trash heap. Engram is returning to the WR-starved Seahawks in Week 5, and he caught 94 balls for 1147 yards in 2007. To me, the level of production I was going to get out of Engram equaled the level of production of some of the WRs on my team. If I could somehow figure out a way to pickup Engram and use my team's depth to upgrade a starting spot, a trade would be a resounding success.

The end result was a trade in which I gave up Muhsin Muhammad, Eddie Royal, and Anthony Gonzalez for Calvin Johnson and Chris Chambers. While this trade might not appear like a clear victory for my squad, when you factor in the potential production that Bobby Engram will provide in Weeks 5-17, I felt the benefits outweighed the costs, and I went through with the deal.

For this reason, when analyzing the trade I made, I viewed it as a win. Though Gonzalez and Royal are great young players in the NFL, by moving them and picking up a free roster spot in the process, I was able to upgrade the overall talent level of my team without missing a beat.

So, yes, you should be looking to move guys who you think might not maintain their present level of performance. You should certainly be looking to acquire guys who are underperforming what your expectations are, but in the end, what you really need to be doing is improving the future performance of your team. So, The Deeb will probably write about guys like Braylon Edwards and Joseph Addai, or Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood, but what you need to realize is that compiling your list of possible trade targets is sometimes secondary to figuring out if there are players on waivers who can help your team, and if so, how you can best utilize free talent.

As an aside, we've really enjoyed posting on the blog so far. We're extremely thankful that some people are actually reading some of our deeper insights into the realm of fantasy. As you can see, below this post is our first guest post by Michael Gottfried. Part of providing fantasy advise is listening to fantasy advice, and we really appreciate any contributions that anyone is willing to make in making this blog a more complete compendium of fantasy knowledge. We look forward to hearing from you.

Week 4 Preliminary: Chansi Stuckey and a heads up

Just as a heads up to the readers at home -- we're going to up the post volume as much as humanly possible over the next few weeks. Schwartz and I will continue to do our Week X Picks columns every week, complete with start/sit advice from here until Week 17. Additionally, we're going to make a post on general NFL trending each week, sort of what you've seen from me before but a little more thorough. MLTS is also going to have a few guest authors posting in the coming weeks. And if you're really interested in fantasy and would like to hear more, I've got a radio program once per week that is streamed from www.wesn.org from 2-4PM CST on Fridays.

Anyway, Chansi Stuckey. His name sounds like the love child of Detroit Pistons' point guards Chauncy Billups and Rodney Stuckey, but my infatuation with those players isn't why I'm devoting an entire post to him. Chansi Stuckey is a guy that is emerging into a very nice third WR on the Jets and is a WR that definitely merits starting in a deeper league, especially PPR.

So far this season, Stuckey has put up great numbers with limited opportunities: 12 catches, 15 targets, 122 yards, 3 TD. When I say great, I'm not necessarily meaning "hey go drop TO for this guy," but rather "hey, this guy has a chance to be one of the top 40-45 WR this season." As I said earlier, he isn't going to be a useful guy in shallow leagues, fantasy-wise. If you're looking for a 4th or 5th WR in a 12-14 team league, Stuckey should definitely be in the conversation (if he isn't owned already).

What to like about Chansi Stuckey:

He's gotten consistent targets all three weeks. He doesn't get many opportunites, but he doesn't really make mistakes. Defenses don't pay him much respect because when he is on the field, almost everyone else is a priority for a defense to defend -- Cotchery, Coles, Jones and Washington all merit attention. Brett Favre, so far, has recognized that. Stuckey is a guy Favre has looked to in the end zone several times already this season (3 TDs) and is a guy that Favre targetted 3 consecutive times on the Jets final drive versus the Chargers on MNF. Looking at the Jets schedule, all but 3 of their games moving forward are going to be favorable to the Jets passing game.

What not to like about Chansi Stuckey:

He's not very likely to have a huge, breakout game. He's the 5th option on the field most of the time and that isn't going to change soon barring major injury to Coles or Cotchery. His value thusfar, outside of PPR, has totally been related to catching TD passes -- he isn't going to catch 16 of those. Eventually, the more talented WR on the Jets are going to start getting open in the red zone.

Where I think Stuckey will end up:

61 catches, 640 yards, 5 TD. He's going to be a solid bye week starter, and maybe a spot starter late in the season when the Jets get gifts like KC, Denver, Miami on the schedule.

"Week Three: Early Season Surprises" By Michael Gottfried

One of our good friends and readers Michael Gottfried has agreed to post some of his musings on the first few weeks of the season. While The Deeb and I don't necessarily agree with all of his positions, we appreciate any perspective that any of our readers can provide. If anyone else would like to see their name in the bright lights of "Most Likely to Succeed," please feel free to pass along your thoughts on anything fantasy. Michael, thanks for your contribution. We look forward to reading more in the future:

Week Three: Early Season Surprises

As the shape of the league begins to reveal itself for 2008, there are a number of headlines that even the best of analysts could never have predicted. While some stories, like Dallas leading the early season charge, could have been seen months ago by Mr. Magoo, others, like the emergence of the Denver Broncos offensive dominance, would have been a dangerous prediction just a few weeks ago. As we head into week 4 of an already puzzling NFL season, we take a deeper look at a few of the surprises, particularly pertaining to fantasy.

Surprise #1 – The Denver Broncos have an insane offense.

In all likelihood, preseason predictions would have pitted New England, Indianapolis, San Diego and any team not named the Ravens atop the divisional standings. However, with a disappointing 1-2 start for the Bolts, the offensive fireworks from Denver have landed them the top spot in the AFC West and an optimistic outlook for years to come.

The Broncos sit atop the AFC with an average of 432 yards per game, and have been led by their young diabetic’s star performance (his alma mater (and mine) is also 4-0, 2-0 in the SEC). Quite simply, Mike Shanahan has reworked his ageless scheme into a spectacle that makes scoring 30 points seem commonplace. Selvin Young and Andre Hall are averaging 6.9 and 5.1 yards per carry respectively, and with the deep threat of Brandon Marshall and Shanahan’s track record, we can only assume that this production is sustainable. Additionally, the Broncos have added a legitimate weapon in Eddie Royal, and suddenly, Jay Cutler : Tony Scheffler :: Tony Romo : Jason Witten (Scheffler is averaging a thumping 15.3 yards per catch). The issue for the Broncos, however, remains the defense. Other than Champ Bailey, the Broncos secondary has no one to speak of, especially with the departure of John Lynch. However, with a little luck (Ed Hochulli) and the continued production of the Offense, the Broncos should look ahead with much optimism.

Surprise #2 – Reggie Bush is finally being utilized properly.

It took three weeks into year 3 for Sean Payton to realize how to feature Reggie Bush as an every down back, but Bush is starting to deliver some familiar highlight worthy footage that he used to crank out weekly at USC. After an impressive rookie campaign spelling Deuce McAllister, last season’s injury to McAllister left Bush as the every down back, and Payton cranked Bush up the middle to the tune of 3.7 yards per carry. His 6 TDs in 2007 left fantasy owners wary at draft time in 2008, and some were going as far as calling the Heisman standout an NFL bust. Defenses knew that Bush probably wasn’t going to break the big one up the middle, so they simply guarded against the screen and draw game, knowing that was how Bush can kill you when lined up behind the Quarterback.

2008 has proved to be a bit different however, and Lightning is back. While Bush’s rushing production still grabs only about 3.6 yards per carry and 1 TD so far, Payton has gone back to lining Bush up all over the field, yielding an impressive 9.6 yards per catch, 83.3 receiving yards per game and 2 receiving scores. Add a punt return TD against the Redskins and Bush is suddenly averaging more than 1 trip to the end zone per game. Bush got an unlucky start in the NFL because he was drafted as a “running back.” In reality, Bush’s game defies conventional position play, and as long as Sean Payton continues to recognize that Bush is utterly ineffective when lining up behind Brees on every down, his production should continue to earn those precious fantasy points we all expected early in his career.

Surprise #3 – Eli is the best player in the NFL named Manning.

We all knew that Eli would someday eclipse his brother as the better QB in the Manning family, but most thought it would be because Peyton would just retire first. Eli and the Giants made an improbable run through the postseason last year, but skeptics claimed that when the dust settled and the new season began, Eli would probably return to his somewhat shaky form. Not so. Eli’s passer rating of 91.1 leads Peyton by nearly 20 points, and if it wasn’t for two late-game passing fiestas from the Colts in weeks 2 and 3, Eli would have his brother beaten in 2008 passing yards by nearly 100. Eli to Burress has become a tandem the likes of Peyton to Harrison early in their Colts careers, but with the age of the Colts’ offense and the eerie inability for Peyton to get his timing down, Eli has looked like the stronger brother thus far. While Eli is attempting 5 fewer passing attempts per game the brothers are separated by a mere 10 yards passing showing the efficiency of the younger Manning’ game. Additionally, Eli’s TD-INT ratio is 4-1, while Peyton, Mr. Reliable, sports a 3-4. I might add that the Giants are still perfect at 3-0 while the Colts have struggled to a 1-2 spot, with their only win coming in a 4^th quarter miracle over the struggling Vikings. While it is noted that Eli has feasted on the likes of the lowly Rams and Bengals and Peyton has been hit with three of the best defenses in the league in Chicago, Minnesota and Jacksonville, the road does not get much easier for elder brother. With two upcoming dates with the Titans, the yearly clash with the Patriots, another date with the Jaguars, and Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Green Bay and San Diego sprinkled in, the Colts have a gauntlet of defenses that would leave any QB weak in the stomach (and arm). Additionally, Joseph Addai has proved a non-factor thus far, leaving a bucket of pressure on Peyton to win games by himself. So while it is still early and Eli has historically proven that he can choke with the best of them, Eli has, for now, passed big bro atop the family depth chart.

Week 3 Picks

We’re going to move to unified MLTS picks this week. Any major differences/disagreements we had will still be treated individually. Our overall record is still pretty sad:

Schwartz: 9-11-11

DB: 10-14-5

Atlanta -5.5 KC o/u 36.5

KC can’t really move the ball, o/u is low, Matt Ryan should play better, opening up Turner/Norwood in the running game – maybe Roddy White puts together a nice game since KC will likely be stacking the box and asking Ryan to beat them. KC is also starting 2 rookie CB. Offensively this game should look similar to Week 1 for Atl. KC is starting Tyler Thigpen at QB, Larry Johnson has been abysmal so far (and moved out of the goal line package) and even Tony Gonzalez hasn’t looked the same. Dwayne Bowe is the only person on KC playing at an acceptable level for fantasy right now.

MLTS Pick: ATL, over.

Start/Sit

Start: Michael Turner (100 yfs+, 1 TD+), Roddy White (75 yds+, 0-1 TD), Dwayne Bowe (100 yds+, 1 TD), Tony Gonzalez (But I’m not happy about it), Matt Ryan (deep leagues), Jerious Norwood (deep leagues)

Sit: Larry Johnson

BAL -2.5 Cleveland o/u 38.5

Baltimore is coming off of bye and gets to face a Cleveland team that has managed 16 points in the first two weeks. This isn’t a traditional bye, however, they didn’t have two weeks to exclusively prepare for the Browns. McGahee should be healthy for this one, expect to see him early and often. Baltimore’s defense appears, after one week of action, to be a complete mismatch for anyone they face – downgrade Browns players accordingly. Last season the Browns fantasy guys did manage a few decent outings against the Ravens. And by decent I mean Jamal Lewis had 90 yards. If I’m a Braylon Edwards owner, I’m worried about the shoulder and his matchup this week is brutal but he’s still a must start.

MLTS Pick: BAL, under.

Start/Sit

Start: Braylon Edwards (you have to, he did alright against the Ravens last year), Kellen Winslow (80+ yds, TD), McGahee (welcome sight for Ravens fans, 100+ yards and a score), Baltimore Defense.

Sit: Jamal Lewis (defensive matchup is too brutal), Derek Anderson (it is possible that he’s not in for the second half of this if it gets out of hand).

BUF -9.5 Oakland o/u 36.5

Shades of Oakland vs. Denver in Week 1? The Bills have proven so far this season that they can do everything they need to (run, pass, defend) when they need to. Oakland comes into this game completely overmatched – Fargas out, McFadden limited. Michael Bush of Oak will be getting most of the carries, JaMarcus can’t carry them yet. Buffalo can run a ton here. Oak secondary will probably contain the big play enough to keep the score low – it is still a very good unit in spite of getting thrashed by the Broncos.

MLTS Pick: BUF, under.

Start/Sit

Start: Marshawn Lynch (Don’t worry about the low YPC vs. JAC), Fred Jackson (Deep leagues), Michael Bush (if you lack a better RB option), McFadden (watch his status prior to kickoff), Trent Edwards (Deeper leagues), Buffalo Defense.

Sit: JaMarcus Russell (Buffalo can stack the box and make OAK try to win with the pass), Oakland WR (See Russell, JaMarcus), Lee Evans (Too much faith in Oakland secondary).

CHI -3 Tampa o/u 35.5

Two really great defenses, no one is going to do much of anything. Forte and Graham are must starts in this one, as are both defenses. Expect a lot of work from the field goal units on both sides; don’t expect a ton of points. Chicago is going to win but Tampa could easily cover this one since it will be something like 12-9, 16-14, etc.

MLTS Pick: Tampa, under.

Start/Sit

Start: Forte (looked solid against Carolina, really liking his game), Graham (eventually John Gruden is going to realize he’s giving half of his carries to Warrick Dunn), both defenses.

Sit: Everyone else.

Dallas -3 GB o/u 51.5

Football fans are given another premiere matchup this week, a possible NFC championship preview and two teams that could easily be bound for the Super Bowl. Everyone in this game is a must start from a fantasy perspective, it could easily turn into a Dallas-Philly all over again. Schwartz really likes the GB defense in this one (and GB in general), and doesn’t think too highly of Dallas on the road. He thought that Dallas being a road favorite in this one after narrowly escaping a team that could be worse than GB was pretty wack and dislikes Romo in this one. On the other hand, Romo has had a history of showing up for big road games (3-0 vs. Giants, Philly on the road), and I’m not really sure any defense can stop the Dallas offense. Can GB defense stop the Dallas O? That is the fundamental question of this one.

Schwartz: GB, under.

DB: Dallas, over.

Start/Sit

Start: Everyone, except perhaps the defensive units.

Sit: You. Watch this entire game, it’ll be compelling.

DEN -5.5 New Orleans o/u 51

The high flying Broncos get another great matchup and should easily reach 3-0. Marshall, Royal, Scheffler, whichever RB Shanahan wants to make into a star, and Cutler should all have monster games against a porous New Orleans defense. NO gave up 29 to the Redskins, a team that has the offensive talent of Marshall alone. On the other side of the ball, all of your NO players are worth starting this week, depending on the depth of your league. Pierre Thomas should have a nice game; it is becoming apparent with the absence of Deuce McAllister that Reggie Bush is incapable of carrying a running game alone. Bush should have a solid game, though; the Denver pass defense is pretty bad. Shockey has to emerge in one of these games, Brees is misses Colston a lot, but the guy will have a solid game.

MLTS Pick: Denver, over.

Start/Sit

Start: All of your Broncos, All of your Saints (Patten is the only questionable one, depending on depth of league).

Sit: The defenses (Why do you own them?).

INDY -5 Jacksonville o/u 41.5

Another Schwartz breakdown, a la NYJ vs. NE last week:

1) Jags defense is good on reputation alone.

2) Colts offense is good on reputation alone.

3) No one on Colts can stop the run.

4) Stoppable force vs. breakable object

MLTS Pick: Indy, over.

Start/Sit

Start: Wayne (another huge year), Anthony Gonzalez (See Welker, Wes circa 2007), Addai (this would be a nice time to bounce back for fantasy owners), MJD (See Colts Injury List).

Sit: Gerrard (Colts D-Line can rush the passer, Jags O-Line is too injured to stop them), Both Defenses.

MIN -3.5 Carolina o/u 37.5

Steve Smith’s glorious return. Also, Gus Ferrote. The Minnesota defense is a much stronger unit than the last time these teams met, when Steve Smith went for over 200 yards. However, Indianapolis exploited their Nickel Coverage last week by lining up Wayne in the slot. DJ Hackett figures to be lining up there for some of the game, perhaps he gets on track (I see him losing a lot of targets this week, he had been averaging 8 per game). By the end of this game, Smith is going to be lining up there if it is close at all. Schwartz and I disagreed on this one.

Schwartz: Carolina, over.

DB: Minnesota, under.

Start/Sit

Start: AP (you have to), Steve Smith (hopefully he won’t punch a teammate), Delhomme, Muhammad (he’s been solid thus far), Berrian (if Gus Ferrote doesn’t get sacked too much, he could catch a deep ball), Hackett (deep league if you feel lucky).

Sit: Ferrote, Carolina running backs (Minnesota is too good vs. the run).

NE -12.5 Miami o/u 35.5

The 2^nd Quarter could be Chad Henne time. We had trouble picking the over or under in this one, kind of depends on how lazy NE gets/wants to be after they go up 21-0.

MLTS Pick: New England, under.

Start/Sit

Start: All Patriots.

Sit: All Dolphins.

NYG -13.5 Cincinnati o/u 41.5

Are the Giants getting enough respect with these spreads? Cincinnati could be worse than the Rams.

MLTS Pick: Giants, over.

Start/Sit

Start: All your Giants.

Sit: Carson Palmer (look at his last 7 games), Chad Ocho Cinco (See Palmer, Carson), TJ Houshmandzadeh (See Palmer, Carson), Chris Perry (See Opponent).

PHI -3.5 Pittsburgh o/u 44.5

This is the hardest game of the week to pick. Pittsburgh has to find a way to contain Westbrook, and probably will contain his ground game. Expect Philly to go to him more in the passing game. The Philly defense looked really strong against the run for most of the Monday Night game, with Big Ben dinged up a little bit, Willie Parker is going to be expected to carry more of the offense – is he up to that? By all accounts Philadelphia is a much better defense than any other unit the Steelers have seen thus far. Santonio Holmes has to make his presence felt at some point, expect Pittsburgh to try and work the pass so that Jim Johnson can’t send a DB blitz on every down.

MLTS Pick: Philadelphia, over.

Start/Sit

Start: Everyone. Only concerned about Parker in this game and potentially the Steelers WR depending on how Big Ben looks.

Sit: You might want to sit the defenses.

SF -4 Detroit o/u 46.5

Fantasy Yahtzee of the week. Expect huge games from everyone involved in this one, maybe even Kevin Smith (the 49ers did give up quite a game to Julius Jones last week). The length of the game is the only limit to the score in this game.

MLTS Pick: SF, over.

Start/Sit

Start: Everyone. No exceptions (depending on league depth of course). Bryant Johnson should have a nice game, Frank Gore might score 50 fantasy points, etc, etc, etc.

Sit: Both Defenses (again, why do you own these clowns?)

SEA -9.5 St. Louis o/u 46.5

Call us crazy, but we kind of like the Rams in this one. Yes, they got destroyed by two of the top six teams in the NFC in the first two weeks of the season. Yes, Torry Holt isn’t the same player. Yes, the O-line isn’t what it used to be. Seattle looked pretty shaky against a very similar San Francisco team last week AND the Rams secondary is at the same talent level as the Seahawks WR. This game will be eerily similar to SF at SEA.

MLTS Pick: Rams, over.

Start/Sit

Start: SJax (has to get better sometime, catching a lot of balls this year, which we love), Torry Holt (Come on, old man), Bulger (please don’t get sacked 19 times), Julius Jones (Dallas would probably be pissed about your emergence as a serviceable back, but they have Felix Jones), Randy McMichael (surprisingly consistent first 2 weeks), John Carlson (Joins Scheffler and Fasano as the emergent TE of 2008).

Sit: Hasselbeck (Who is he throwing to? I don’t care how bad the Rams are).

TEN -5 Houston o/u 39

Schwartz loves the Texans (specifically Andre Johnson), I love the Titans (specifically the defense). Tennessee is looking to be one of the top 3 defensive units in the league this year. The Texans got lit up in Week 1 by a pretty dynamic Pittsburgh offense. Chris Johnson should have a monster game (he’s better than Willy Parker, okay), Andre Johnson might be able to reciprocate for the Texans. Potential for a lot of Johnson on Johnson action in this one.

Schwartz: Houston, over.

DB: Ten, under.

Start/Sit

Start: All your Johnsons. Kerry Collins (See Big Ben, Week 1), Justin Gage (See Hines Ward, Week 1).

Sit: LenDale White (he’s getting the goal line carries so you should probably start him if you don’t have a better option, but he’s fat and terrible and I hate things that are fat and terrible), Matt Schaub (see TEN DVOA against the pass at www.footballoutsiders.com)

SKINS -3 Arizona o/u 42

Kurt Warner is playing at the same level he played at from 1999-2001. In case you forgot, he was pretty good at football then. Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald are too much to handle for the Washington defensive secondary. Arizona’s defense has also looked pretty solid, Portis has a good history against them, though.

MLTS Pick: Arizona, over.

Start/Sit

Start: All your Cardinals. Portis. Arizona defense.

Sit: Campbell, Moss, Randel El. Arizona has been pretty strong against the pass thus far.

SD -9 Jets o/u 44

San Diego can’t stop the pass. NYJ haven’t really gotten to show off Favre yet. Expect that to change. The Jets need a big road win to keep everyone happy. Thomas Jones should have a nice day, San Diego has looked awful and lost without Merriman. Phillip Rivers is going to face the best defense he’s seen so far this season on Monday night, we’ll find out if he can keep up the pace. Does LT play? We like Sproles if he doesn’t.

MLTS Pick: Jets, over.

Start/Sit

Start: All your Jets. All your Chargers. Play Sproles if LT doesn’t play, sit him if LT does play.