Last night I drafted my ninth and final Fantasy NBA team for 2008-2009. All of the leagues were auction based, eight of them had ESPN Standard scoring. There was a mix of Head to Head and Rotisserie formats. The league that drafted last night, the most important one in my mind, was composed of quite a few guys I play all of the fantasy formats with and a few new faces. This was a deeper league -- 12 teams, 16 roster spots per team -- and a keeper league. Each team I've drafted this year have had varying motifs and strategies. Some isolate certain stats, some isolate certain player-types, some were extremely speculative.
My strategy going into the draft was to execute a team style Schwartz and I came up with a few seasons ago: Bums who Rebound. This strategy works very well in Head-to-Head (our format) because you, almost by default, win FG%, Rebounds and Blocks every week. This league is an 8 cat league, in 9 cat leagues you can generally count turnovers in the win column every week. The wild card stats you go for are Points and Steals -- those two stats generally depend on the quality of your big men and quality of your guards, respectively.
Additionally, because this was a keeper league, I wanted to make sure to get a few of the stars of tomorrow, even if I slightly overpaid for them. In my baseball and football keeper leagues, cheap, young talent is grossly overvalued in trades. Trading should be a part of every owner's arsenal -- it is extremely rare that you are able to leave a draft with a complete team, especially in an auction. There are always tweaks to be made.
Here were the players I was targeting in the vacuum, before the draft. I knew I wasn't going to get all of them due to price, but felt that if I got a majority of this roster, things would be looking up for me. I'll give a brief line about the player if it is unclear why I would target them.
PG-- Rajon Rondo. Breakout candidate. Great fg%, reb for a PG. Steals machine.
SG-- Kevin Durant. Breakout candidate. Steal, Block per game. Scoring machine. So-So FG%
G -- Derrick Rose. Beautiful young talent. Steals machine. The Bulls are my team.
SF-- Gerald Wallace. Steal/Block per game. Boards well for a SF.
PF -- Tim Duncan.
F -- Al Jefferson.
C -- Amare Stoudamire.
C -- Dwight Howard. These last four guys are the core. They win FG%, Blocks, Boards each week on their own.
UTIL x3 -- Al Horford, Andris Biedrins, David West. Strong mix of scoring, boards, fg%, youth.
Bench x5 -- David Lee, Joakim Noah, Ronnie Brewer, Rudy Fernandez, Fransisco Garcia -- steals from the guards, youth, value, etc.
Obviously, I went a little overboard with my expectations of salaries -- Duncan, Jefferson, Stoudamire and Howard ended up going for a combined $198, we had $200 to fill our team. With that in mind, here is how I ended up and why I took the player if they weren't on my list prior to the draft.
PG -- Derrick Rose, $7.
SG -- Luol Deng, $12. Value was too good to pass up. High FG%, good rebounding from SG. SF eligible as well. Deng has been working out with the guy that turned Kevin Martin into Kevin Martin this summer, as a Bulls fan I really like where he's headed with the new look Bulls. Also grabs a steal and half a block per game.
SF -- Gerald Wallace, $16.
PF -- Michael Beasley, $21. I overpaid for Beasley here, but he should score a lot, rebounds well and is projected for a steal and block per game. He was one of the transcendent talents in college last year and is ultimately extremely valueable in a trade, even if he doesn't quite do what I want. I see him near 18-8-2-1-1 on 46% shooting.
C -- Amare Stoudamire, $65. Spent a little too much, but I'm happy with this.
C -- Greg Oden, $22. Injury risk, as we've already seen. Youth, breakout potential, statline fits my overall theme.
G -- Monta Ellis, $10. Love, love, love his game in this system. Steals, high FG%, scoring/assists should rise, 4.o rpg from PG. I'm mildly worried about the injury but I think he's a great long term pick. Works well because this strat doesn't really need great guard play to succeed, so I can hold him for a while.
F -- David Lee, $17. Overpaid slightly. He's going to be worth it in the D'Antoni system.
UTIL-- Anthony Parker, $5. This was an autodraft snafu by me, but he steals/shoots well at SG.
UTIL -- Andris Biedrins, $13.
UTIL -- Kenyon Martin, $4. He's looked decent in pre-season. Someone has to fill the rebounding void left by Camby in Denver. Also steals/blocks well.
BENCH -- Amir Johnson $1, Jason Maxiell, $1. Athletic, young rebounders and shot blockers that will have increased minutes in Detriot this year. I hedged my bets on which one ultimately gets the lionshare of the minutes.
Rudy Fernandez, $1. Replay some footage from the Olympics to understand this one.
Travis Outlaw, $1. This is a guy I've liked for a long time, he just needed a minutes increase to be really useful. Should see some moderate scoring and divergent skills (3s, steals, blocks) from this swingman.
Kalenna Azubuike, $3. Shorthanded at guard for now with Ellis out, Azubuike figures to see increased playing time. He showed signs of a breakout year in 2007-2008 early in the season when the Warriors were dealing with a few injuries.
As you can see, I didn't really come away with that many players on my initial list. I was only able to grab Stoudamire, Wallace, Lee, Beidrins, Rose and Fernandez. What I did come away with was some exciting young talent that I can trade to fill some holes eventually. The flow of the draft was one that saw a lot of guys that I saw as useful get driven up to prices I wasn't willing to pay. My solution was to draft guys that are more speculative but would be highly sought after because of the keeper-nature of the league as a way to, in a sense, redraft some of my team via trade.
Strengths of this draft:
1. Youth
2. FG%, Boards, Blocks in adequate quantity.
3. Solid Value Picking in the late-middle rounds: Deng and Wallace being the primary examples.
Weaknesses of this draft:
1. Overpaid for a couple young guys, primary culprit being Beasley going for more than Pau Gasol ($21 vs $20).
2. Concerned about my blocks with this roster, not quite as dominant as I wanted.
3. Missed a couple guards that make the strat work -- didn't have enough money left over for Ronnie Brewer and Rajon Rondo, guys who I viewed as absolutely essential in the long run.
4. Very speculative on the points front -- I need Beasley, Deng, Rose, Fernandez and Outlaw to average about 70-75 ppg as a group.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Week 8 Picks
Home team in caps, as always.
EAGLES -8.5 Falcons, 46.5
Welcome back, old friend. It’s a week of comebacks in Philly with the return of Kevin Curtis, Brian Westbrook to the Linc and the Phillies to the World Series. Unfortunately for the Falcons, the storybook season might come to an end this week. Or at least be temporarily derailed. The Eagles sport an excellent rushing defense and one of the better pass defenses in the league. They’ll get after the rookie Matt Ryan and make his life miserable for most of the game. The only limit on fantasy potential for the Eagles this week is Westbrook’s health – Andy Reid is never shy about pulling his big stars from blowout games.
MLTS Pick: Eagles, under
JETS -13 Chiefs, 38
The Jets looked pretty terrible on the road against the Raiders last week. Fortunately for them, they get the woeful Chiefs at home. To quote Herm Edwards, “We’re not a strong offense; we’re not a strong defense. We don’t have any strengths right now.” Ouch. Thomas Jones has been on a roll for the last few weeks, posting a career high in rushing yardage last week against the Raiders. Look for Brett Favre to work on his timing this week in spite of potentially missing Coles and Cotchery.
MLTS Pick: Jets, under
PANTHERS -4.5 Cardinals, 43.5
I just want to go on record here saying that I think the Cardinals are a pretty good football team. Schwartz thinks they’re a decent to above-average club. Getting Anquan Boldin back will be huge for this team. However, as good as I think the Cardinals may be, they’re not a very good road team – especially when coming West to East for a 1 PM EST game. That is partially tempered by the Cardinals coming off bye, but I digress. The Panthers shouldn’t have many problems on offense. While Arizona’s defense is coming along, they’re still not very good against the pass. Ultimately, the Panthers will be able to pressure the QB and frustrate the Arizona offense enough to win.
MLTS Pick: Panthers, over
Bills -1.5 DOLPHINS, 42
At 5-1, the Bills need to be taken seriously (if they weren’t being taken seriously already). They’ve got a solid defense and an offense that excels at ball control. While Marshawn Lynch hasn’t necessarily done what he’s been expected to do from a fantasy perspective, Lee Evans and Trent Edwards have been excellent value for fantasy owners this season. Teams are starting to figure out how to play against the Wildcat – Ronnie Brown et al haven’t been very good as of late. Chad Pennington has done a great job this season for the Dolphins, Football Outsiders has the Dolphins ranked #3 in passing offense (!) in spite of no discernible WR talent. Pennington can’t win games on his own, though. The Fins will need a heroic effort from their defense or better play from their RBs to beat the Bills.
MLTS Pick: Bills, over
JAGS -6.5 Browns, 41
Braylon Edwards has caught 20 passes on 49 targets this season. He has 10 total drops in 2008. There are two questions left to ask about this Browns team: Was that Giants game a complete fluke (and Derek Anderson, Edwards' 2007 campaigns)? Is Braylon Edwards the worst starting player in the NFL? Both players need to show some kind of consistency to ease fantasy owners' minds. On the other side of the ball, Jacksonville has gotten a little healthier and it shows. Losing offensive linemen the way that they did at the start of the season creates a huge trickle down effect that diminishes every aspect of your team. Expect the Jags to be able to run the ball well this week, MJD should follow up on his great performance before the bye. With Matt Jones potentially missing some time in the future due to violation of league policy, Jerry Porter might finally do something this season.
MLTS Pick: Jags, under
STEELERS -2.5 Giants, 42
Game of the week, with easy. The Giants have a better offense and defense than the Steelers. While it may be close on the defensive side of the ball, the Giants are a team that is built to eat mediocre offensive lines. Look for Roethlisberger to continue to take obscene punishment. Both teams figure to be taken out of their offensive rhythm for this game. From a fantasy perspective, the game might be a little bleak. From a general storyline and football perspective, it doesn’t get any better than this.
MLTS Pick: Giants, under
RAVENS -7 Raiders, 37
Tom Cable referred to the Raiders as a 1-0 football team after beating the Jets last week. This is the kind of delusional perspective you attain when your record as a head coach is 12-35. The only good news about this game is that we’ll be treated to Cable’s post-game news conference in which he attempts to explain how the Raiders fell to 1-1.
MLTS Pick: Ravens, under
Chargers -3.5 SAINTS, 47
London is calling, NFL. They’re saying they don’t want to watch two 3-4 teams play fake football. Both of these teams are potentially explosive and potentially abysmal. MLTS would really like the Saints in this game if Reggie Bush were playing. Alas, we’ll have to settle for the return of Marques Colston to fantasy relevance.
MLTS Pick: Saints, under
49ERS -4.5 Seahawks, 42.5
Mike Nolan out, Mike Singletary in. Look for Singletary to fire this team up against Seattle and come away with a victory. When these teams met earlier in the season, Julius Jones, Matt Hasselbeck, Frank Gore and JT O’Sullivan all had great days. Unfortunately for Seattle, the role of Hasselbeck will be played by Seneca Wallace in the rematch. Seattle has all the makings of Bizzaro 2007 Boston – Instead of 3 championships, Seattle lost their NBA franchise, the Mariners were one of the worst teams in baseball, and their perennial playoff contending football team.
MLTS Pick: 49ers, under
PATRIOTS -7 Rams, 43.5
2001 Super Bowl Remix. Only this time the slightly frisky Rams are bad. Remember that defense that looked like they may or may not be worse than most elite college defenses at the beginning of the season? Yeah, they should be making their grand re-entrance any week now.
MLTS Pick: Pats, over
COWBOYS -1.5 Buccaneers, 40.5
The Cowboys should stick to reality TV. They were at least above average at that. Tampa is a really good football team.
MLTS Pick: Bucs, over
Redskins -7.5 LIONS, 42
Hand it to the Lions, they’ve covered a couple of spreads in the last two weeks. They won’t cover against the Redskins, who should be looking to play a complete game if they’re going to be viewed as a legit contender in the NFC. Since this game is blacked out in the Detriot media market, the 12 people watching this game are guaranteed to be Redskins fans.
MLTS Pick: Redskins, under
TEXANS -10 Bengals, 44.5
The Texans are the best 2-4 team in the NFL. They’re also absolutely terrible at covering spreads and closing out games. This one could be pretty exciting since you’ll get to see the best WR in the NFL, Andre Johnson (check out our articles from September telling you this! Also, ignore that tirade about John Kitna in the archives) and you’ll see the guaranteed implosion of the Texans defense in the waning minutes!
MLTS Pick; Bengals, over
TITANS -4 Colts, 40.5
Our heads tell us to take the Titans – there are plenty of compelling reasons to do so. While the Colts may be one of the better teams to face the Titans so far this season, they really have no business beating them in Nashville. However, every Monday Night game this season has been completely and totally random and irrational (see Saints defense holding AP to 32 yards, Browns over Giants, etc.). Thus, we’ll take a sputtering and slightly beat up Colts offense over the best defense in the NFL.
MLTS Pick: Colts, over
EAGLES -8.5 Falcons, 46.5
Welcome back, old friend. It’s a week of comebacks in Philly with the return of Kevin Curtis, Brian Westbrook to the Linc and the Phillies to the World Series. Unfortunately for the Falcons, the storybook season might come to an end this week. Or at least be temporarily derailed. The Eagles sport an excellent rushing defense and one of the better pass defenses in the league. They’ll get after the rookie Matt Ryan and make his life miserable for most of the game. The only limit on fantasy potential for the Eagles this week is Westbrook’s health – Andy Reid is never shy about pulling his big stars from blowout games.
MLTS Pick: Eagles, under
JETS -13 Chiefs, 38
The Jets looked pretty terrible on the road against the Raiders last week. Fortunately for them, they get the woeful Chiefs at home. To quote Herm Edwards, “We’re not a strong offense; we’re not a strong defense. We don’t have any strengths right now.” Ouch. Thomas Jones has been on a roll for the last few weeks, posting a career high in rushing yardage last week against the Raiders. Look for Brett Favre to work on his timing this week in spite of potentially missing Coles and Cotchery.
MLTS Pick: Jets, under
PANTHERS -4.5 Cardinals, 43.5
I just want to go on record here saying that I think the Cardinals are a pretty good football team. Schwartz thinks they’re a decent to above-average club. Getting Anquan Boldin back will be huge for this team. However, as good as I think the Cardinals may be, they’re not a very good road team – especially when coming West to East for a 1 PM EST game. That is partially tempered by the Cardinals coming off bye, but I digress. The Panthers shouldn’t have many problems on offense. While Arizona’s defense is coming along, they’re still not very good against the pass. Ultimately, the Panthers will be able to pressure the QB and frustrate the Arizona offense enough to win.
MLTS Pick: Panthers, over
Bills -1.5 DOLPHINS, 42
At 5-1, the Bills need to be taken seriously (if they weren’t being taken seriously already). They’ve got a solid defense and an offense that excels at ball control. While Marshawn Lynch hasn’t necessarily done what he’s been expected to do from a fantasy perspective, Lee Evans and Trent Edwards have been excellent value for fantasy owners this season. Teams are starting to figure out how to play against the Wildcat – Ronnie Brown et al haven’t been very good as of late. Chad Pennington has done a great job this season for the Dolphins, Football Outsiders has the Dolphins ranked #3 in passing offense (!) in spite of no discernible WR talent. Pennington can’t win games on his own, though. The Fins will need a heroic effort from their defense or better play from their RBs to beat the Bills.
MLTS Pick: Bills, over
JAGS -6.5 Browns, 41
Braylon Edwards has caught 20 passes on 49 targets this season. He has 10 total drops in 2008. There are two questions left to ask about this Browns team: Was that Giants game a complete fluke (and Derek Anderson, Edwards' 2007 campaigns)? Is Braylon Edwards the worst starting player in the NFL? Both players need to show some kind of consistency to ease fantasy owners' minds. On the other side of the ball, Jacksonville has gotten a little healthier and it shows. Losing offensive linemen the way that they did at the start of the season creates a huge trickle down effect that diminishes every aspect of your team. Expect the Jags to be able to run the ball well this week, MJD should follow up on his great performance before the bye. With Matt Jones potentially missing some time in the future due to violation of league policy, Jerry Porter might finally do something this season.
MLTS Pick: Jags, under
STEELERS -2.5 Giants, 42
Game of the week, with easy. The Giants have a better offense and defense than the Steelers. While it may be close on the defensive side of the ball, the Giants are a team that is built to eat mediocre offensive lines. Look for Roethlisberger to continue to take obscene punishment. Both teams figure to be taken out of their offensive rhythm for this game. From a fantasy perspective, the game might be a little bleak. From a general storyline and football perspective, it doesn’t get any better than this.
MLTS Pick: Giants, under
RAVENS -7 Raiders, 37
Tom Cable referred to the Raiders as a 1-0 football team after beating the Jets last week. This is the kind of delusional perspective you attain when your record as a head coach is 12-35. The only good news about this game is that we’ll be treated to Cable’s post-game news conference in which he attempts to explain how the Raiders fell to 1-1.
MLTS Pick: Ravens, under
Chargers -3.5 SAINTS, 47
London is calling, NFL. They’re saying they don’t want to watch two 3-4 teams play fake football. Both of these teams are potentially explosive and potentially abysmal. MLTS would really like the Saints in this game if Reggie Bush were playing. Alas, we’ll have to settle for the return of Marques Colston to fantasy relevance.
MLTS Pick: Saints, under
49ERS -4.5 Seahawks, 42.5
Mike Nolan out, Mike Singletary in. Look for Singletary to fire this team up against Seattle and come away with a victory. When these teams met earlier in the season, Julius Jones, Matt Hasselbeck, Frank Gore and JT O’Sullivan all had great days. Unfortunately for Seattle, the role of Hasselbeck will be played by Seneca Wallace in the rematch. Seattle has all the makings of Bizzaro 2007 Boston – Instead of 3 championships, Seattle lost their NBA franchise, the Mariners were one of the worst teams in baseball, and their perennial playoff contending football team.
MLTS Pick: 49ers, under
PATRIOTS -7 Rams, 43.5
2001 Super Bowl Remix. Only this time the slightly frisky Rams are bad. Remember that defense that looked like they may or may not be worse than most elite college defenses at the beginning of the season? Yeah, they should be making their grand re-entrance any week now.
MLTS Pick: Pats, over
COWBOYS -1.5 Buccaneers, 40.5
The Cowboys should stick to reality TV. They were at least above average at that. Tampa is a really good football team.
MLTS Pick: Bucs, over
Redskins -7.5 LIONS, 42
Hand it to the Lions, they’ve covered a couple of spreads in the last two weeks. They won’t cover against the Redskins, who should be looking to play a complete game if they’re going to be viewed as a legit contender in the NFC. Since this game is blacked out in the Detriot media market, the 12 people watching this game are guaranteed to be Redskins fans.
MLTS Pick: Redskins, under
TEXANS -10 Bengals, 44.5
The Texans are the best 2-4 team in the NFL. They’re also absolutely terrible at covering spreads and closing out games. This one could be pretty exciting since you’ll get to see the best WR in the NFL, Andre Johnson (check out our articles from September telling you this! Also, ignore that tirade about John Kitna in the archives) and you’ll see the guaranteed implosion of the Texans defense in the waning minutes!
MLTS Pick; Bengals, over
TITANS -4 Colts, 40.5
Our heads tell us to take the Titans – there are plenty of compelling reasons to do so. While the Colts may be one of the better teams to face the Titans so far this season, they really have no business beating them in Nashville. However, every Monday Night game this season has been completely and totally random and irrational (see Saints defense holding AP to 32 yards, Browns over Giants, etc.). Thus, we’ll take a sputtering and slightly beat up Colts offense over the best defense in the NFL.
MLTS Pick: Colts, over
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Week 7 Picks
Sorry for the terrible picks this week, quite a lot going on for Schwartz and me this week.
MIAMI -3 Baltimore, o/u 36.5
Baltimore, under.
SKINS -7.5 Cleveland, o/u 42.5
Cleveland, under
Dallas -7 RAMS, o/u 44
Dallas, over
TEXANS -9 Detroit, o/u 48
Texans, under
Indy -1 GB, o/u 47
Indy, under
BEARS -3 Vikings, o/u 38
Vikings, over
CAROLINA -3 New Orleans, o/u 44
New Orleans, over
Jets -3 RAIDERS, 42.5
Raiders, over.
Steelers -9.5 BENGALS o/u 37
Steelers, under.
Chargers -1 BILLS, 46.5
ANS: SD, under
DB: Buffalo, under
GIANTS -10.5 49ers, 45
Giants, over
Titans -8 KC, 35.5
Titans, over.
TB -11 Seattle, 39
Tampa, under.
NE -3 Denver, 46.5
Denver, under.
MIAMI -3 Baltimore, o/u 36.5
Baltimore, under.
SKINS -7.5 Cleveland, o/u 42.5
Cleveland, under
Dallas -7 RAMS, o/u 44
Dallas, over
TEXANS -9 Detroit, o/u 48
Texans, under
Indy -1 GB, o/u 47
Indy, under
BEARS -3 Vikings, o/u 38
Vikings, over
CAROLINA -3 New Orleans, o/u 44
New Orleans, over
Jets -3 RAIDERS, 42.5
Raiders, over.
Steelers -9.5 BENGALS o/u 37
Steelers, under.
Chargers -1 BILLS, 46.5
ANS: SD, under
DB: Buffalo, under
GIANTS -10.5 49ers, 45
Giants, over
Titans -8 KC, 35.5
Titans, over.
TB -11 Seattle, 39
Tampa, under.
NE -3 Denver, 46.5
Denver, under.
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Week 6 NFL Picks
For all of those who wished me a happy half birthday, your sentiments were much appreciated. The Deeb is busy getting busy with his girlfriend, so this round of NFL picks will be brought to you by yours truly. On to the Week 6 picks.
JAX (+3.5) @ Den o/u 48
Jacksonville is a good football team. Their defense isn't as good as it's been for the past few years, but with their offensive line finally starting to get back some of the guys they were missing at the outside, Jacksonville is becoming the efficient offense they were expected to be. Denver cannot win this game unless they figure out a way to stop the run - Fred Taylor and MJD have been running all over opponents for the past few weeks. This game feels like a toss-up, so I'll take the points.
ANS: Jacksonville, Over
DB: Denver, Under
Baltimore (+4.5) @ Indianapolis o/u 39
Everyone is talking about Baltimore's defense in this one, but I'm just waiting for Peyton Manning to explode. After the New York Football Giants win the Superbowl, the Manning vs. Manning debates started again. Then, his safety valve at Wide Receiver decided to (allegedly) assault someone with a deadly weapon. Then, his offensive line fell apart. Expect Manning to finally put together the Hall of Fame-caliber game against an elite defense as he takes his first step towards regaining the mantle of "Greatest Manning."
ANS: Indy, Over
DB: Bal, Over
Carolina (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay o/u 36.5
Is this the game where Jeff Garcia finally gets his job back? Don't bet on it. Carolina is a good team, and with Delhomme behind the helm of this offense, their offense isn't putting their defense in bad situations. The Stewart/Williams combination is devastating, and as stifling as the TB defense has been all season, the offense will stall without Griese and Galloway.
MLTS: Car, Over
Chicago (-2.5) @ Atlanta o/u 43.5
Don't look now, but Matt Forte's numbers have been declining steadily every week. People are jumping on the Kyle Orton bandwagon, but if the Bears have any trouble generating a legitimate running attack, those 8-in-the-box defensive sets might start morphing into serious pass coverage. Michael Turner has been the big story in Atlanta, but he faces a legitimate defense this week, and we expect Atlanta to have difficulty moving the ball with any regularity.
MLTS: Chicago, Over
Cincinnati (+6) @ New York Jets o/u 45
The Bengals have actually held their own against two of the NFC's elite (NYG and DAL). Without Carson Palmer at the helm, though, this team does not have much going for the offensively. The Jets defense has been an above average unit, and their combination of a potentially explosive air attack and a move-the-chains running game should keep the Bengals defensive unit on the field. Expect the Jets to win this one handily, but don't expect another 6 TD day from Favre.
MLTS: NYJ, under
Dallas (-5) @ Arizona o/u 50
Say what you will about Tony Romo's propensity to mail it in in big games, but the guy chews up opponents in games no one cares about. Well, guess what? No one cares about Arizona. Dallas will roll, and depending on the penetration of the Dallas defense, Kurt Warner may not finish the game.
ANS: Dallas, Over
DB: Arizona, Under
Detroit (+13.5) @ Minnesota o/u 47
What if instead of "Jews for Jesus," there was a religion called "Jews for Adrian Peterson?". Seriously, this guy is the second coming of Barry Sanders. We should all recognize this. Someone must spread the gospel. Detroit is not good at football. Jon Kitna is not playing. Minnesota has an elite defense. The factors are all there for Peterson to put up a monstrosity of a day. 200 yards and 3 scores seems like the lower end of expectations. Minnesota's defense may add 3 scores of their own.
ANS: Minnesota, Under
DB: Detroit, Under
Green Bay (+2.5) @ Seattle o/u 46.5
No Hasselbeck, no Branch, no real decision to be made here. Green Bay is going to score points, so the 46.5 over shouldn't be a problem.
MLTS: Green Bay, Over
Miami (+3) @ Houston o/u 45
Ronnie Brown has answered all the doubts about his reconstructed knee, but the NFL is going to adjust to the Wildcat formation that has resulted in so many yards and scores for him the past few weeks. Though Miami has beaten both the Patriots and the Chargers, the Texans have something that neither of those two teams have: Andre Johnson. Avid readers of the blog know that this is a player who we think very highly of, and expect him to have a great day. Schaub will prove that he is the alpha dog of the Quarterback carousel in Houston, and Houston will get their first victory of the season.
MLTS: Houston, Over
Oakland (+7.5) @ New Orleans o/u 47.5
The Saints are coming off a short week after a Monday night game, but it was a Monday night game when the world finally saw exactly how dynamic Reggie Bush can be in the NFL. Sean Payton has done an amazing job integrating him in the offense/special teams, and his ability to break off big plays is astounding. Everyone knows how terrible the Saints defense is, but they just stepped up against the best running back in the NFL, so we at MLTS think they can do the same thing versus a lesser stable of backs.
MLTS: New Orleans, Under
Philadelphia (-5) @ San Fransisco o/u 43
If there's a recipe for injury in the NFL, it's putting a blitzing defense against a pass-happy offense that doesn't believe in protecting the QB. The Eagles don't have their best player in Brian Westbrook, but Donovan McNabb has put the team's future success on his shoulders, and I don't see anyone on the 49ers defense with the ability to prevent him from carrying this offense. A combination of turnovers and great field positions should allow the Eagles to control this game early and put some points on the board.
MLTS: Philadelphia, Over
St. Louis (+13.5) @ Washington o/u 44
Are the Rams this bad? Are the Redskins an elite team? We won't get a definitive answer to these questions this week, but if the Redskins want to continue to be the "it" team of the NFL, a double digit win is an absolute must.
MLTS: Washington, Over
New England (+6) @ San Diego o/u 44.5
Can someone explain to me what is going on with the Patriot offense? I know that Tom Brady is out, but Cassell looks like a competent sub-in, and Welker and Moss are still playmakers. Weren't we supposed to start seeing a re-dedication to the run game after Brady went down? Isn't Maroney the best running back on this team? I have so many questions about this squad, and there is no better time to answer these questions than now, against a reeling Chargers defense. We think the Patriots could win this one outright, and with their defense finally showing its age, we expect the Chargers to put up some points in the loss.
MLTS: New England, Over
New York Giants (-8) @ Cleveland o/u 43.5
That sound you heard that sounded like a cross between a riot and a hayride was everyone jumping on the Giants bandwagon. This could very easily be a trap game, but in order to lose a trap game, the team you're playing has to have the ability to catch the football. Winslow is allegedly missing this game due to swelling of the testes, which takes away one of Cleveland's biggest weapons. We think Hixon's performance at WR last week lights a major fire under Burress, and we expect him to again be the focal point of the Giants aerial attack.
MLTS: New York Giants, Over
JAX (+3.5) @ Den o/u 48
Jacksonville is a good football team. Their defense isn't as good as it's been for the past few years, but with their offensive line finally starting to get back some of the guys they were missing at the outside, Jacksonville is becoming the efficient offense they were expected to be. Denver cannot win this game unless they figure out a way to stop the run - Fred Taylor and MJD have been running all over opponents for the past few weeks. This game feels like a toss-up, so I'll take the points.
ANS: Jacksonville, Over
DB: Denver, Under
Baltimore (+4.5) @ Indianapolis o/u 39
Everyone is talking about Baltimore's defense in this one, but I'm just waiting for Peyton Manning to explode. After the New York Football Giants win the Superbowl, the Manning vs. Manning debates started again. Then, his safety valve at Wide Receiver decided to (allegedly) assault someone with a deadly weapon. Then, his offensive line fell apart. Expect Manning to finally put together the Hall of Fame-caliber game against an elite defense as he takes his first step towards regaining the mantle of "Greatest Manning."
ANS: Indy, Over
DB: Bal, Over
Carolina (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay o/u 36.5
Is this the game where Jeff Garcia finally gets his job back? Don't bet on it. Carolina is a good team, and with Delhomme behind the helm of this offense, their offense isn't putting their defense in bad situations. The Stewart/Williams combination is devastating, and as stifling as the TB defense has been all season, the offense will stall without Griese and Galloway.
MLTS: Car, Over
Chicago (-2.5) @ Atlanta o/u 43.5
Don't look now, but Matt Forte's numbers have been declining steadily every week. People are jumping on the Kyle Orton bandwagon, but if the Bears have any trouble generating a legitimate running attack, those 8-in-the-box defensive sets might start morphing into serious pass coverage. Michael Turner has been the big story in Atlanta, but he faces a legitimate defense this week, and we expect Atlanta to have difficulty moving the ball with any regularity.
MLTS: Chicago, Over
Cincinnati (+6) @ New York Jets o/u 45
The Bengals have actually held their own against two of the NFC's elite (NYG and DAL). Without Carson Palmer at the helm, though, this team does not have much going for the offensively. The Jets defense has been an above average unit, and their combination of a potentially explosive air attack and a move-the-chains running game should keep the Bengals defensive unit on the field. Expect the Jets to win this one handily, but don't expect another 6 TD day from Favre.
MLTS: NYJ, under
Dallas (-5) @ Arizona o/u 50
Say what you will about Tony Romo's propensity to mail it in in big games, but the guy chews up opponents in games no one cares about. Well, guess what? No one cares about Arizona. Dallas will roll, and depending on the penetration of the Dallas defense, Kurt Warner may not finish the game.
ANS: Dallas, Over
DB: Arizona, Under
Detroit (+13.5) @ Minnesota o/u 47
What if instead of "Jews for Jesus," there was a religion called "Jews for Adrian Peterson?". Seriously, this guy is the second coming of Barry Sanders. We should all recognize this. Someone must spread the gospel. Detroit is not good at football. Jon Kitna is not playing. Minnesota has an elite defense. The factors are all there for Peterson to put up a monstrosity of a day. 200 yards and 3 scores seems like the lower end of expectations. Minnesota's defense may add 3 scores of their own.
ANS: Minnesota, Under
DB: Detroit, Under
Green Bay (+2.5) @ Seattle o/u 46.5
No Hasselbeck, no Branch, no real decision to be made here. Green Bay is going to score points, so the 46.5 over shouldn't be a problem.
MLTS: Green Bay, Over
Miami (+3) @ Houston o/u 45
Ronnie Brown has answered all the doubts about his reconstructed knee, but the NFL is going to adjust to the Wildcat formation that has resulted in so many yards and scores for him the past few weeks. Though Miami has beaten both the Patriots and the Chargers, the Texans have something that neither of those two teams have: Andre Johnson. Avid readers of the blog know that this is a player who we think very highly of, and expect him to have a great day. Schaub will prove that he is the alpha dog of the Quarterback carousel in Houston, and Houston will get their first victory of the season.
MLTS: Houston, Over
Oakland (+7.5) @ New Orleans o/u 47.5
The Saints are coming off a short week after a Monday night game, but it was a Monday night game when the world finally saw exactly how dynamic Reggie Bush can be in the NFL. Sean Payton has done an amazing job integrating him in the offense/special teams, and his ability to break off big plays is astounding. Everyone knows how terrible the Saints defense is, but they just stepped up against the best running back in the NFL, so we at MLTS think they can do the same thing versus a lesser stable of backs.
MLTS: New Orleans, Under
Philadelphia (-5) @ San Fransisco o/u 43
If there's a recipe for injury in the NFL, it's putting a blitzing defense against a pass-happy offense that doesn't believe in protecting the QB. The Eagles don't have their best player in Brian Westbrook, but Donovan McNabb has put the team's future success on his shoulders, and I don't see anyone on the 49ers defense with the ability to prevent him from carrying this offense. A combination of turnovers and great field positions should allow the Eagles to control this game early and put some points on the board.
MLTS: Philadelphia, Over
St. Louis (+13.5) @ Washington o/u 44
Are the Rams this bad? Are the Redskins an elite team? We won't get a definitive answer to these questions this week, but if the Redskins want to continue to be the "it" team of the NFL, a double digit win is an absolute must.
MLTS: Washington, Over
New England (+6) @ San Diego o/u 44.5
Can someone explain to me what is going on with the Patriot offense? I know that Tom Brady is out, but Cassell looks like a competent sub-in, and Welker and Moss are still playmakers. Weren't we supposed to start seeing a re-dedication to the run game after Brady went down? Isn't Maroney the best running back on this team? I have so many questions about this squad, and there is no better time to answer these questions than now, against a reeling Chargers defense. We think the Patriots could win this one outright, and with their defense finally showing its age, we expect the Chargers to put up some points in the loss.
MLTS: New England, Over
New York Giants (-8) @ Cleveland o/u 43.5
That sound you heard that sounded like a cross between a riot and a hayride was everyone jumping on the Giants bandwagon. This could very easily be a trap game, but in order to lose a trap game, the team you're playing has to have the ability to catch the football. Winslow is allegedly missing this game due to swelling of the testes, which takes away one of Cleveland's biggest weapons. We think Hixon's performance at WR last week lights a major fire under Burress, and we expect him to again be the focal point of the Giants aerial attack.
MLTS: New York Giants, Over
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Fantasy NHL: Thoughts from Europe and Sleepers by Bobby Gottfried
Thanks for the contribution, Bobby.
So here we are. Opening NHL weekend (for most of the league). Time for me to go through some thoughts from preseason, the Europe games, and since I didn’t pick my sleepers before most drafts, I figured I’d also give you the names of some guys who are probably still available in your league who would be worth picking up.
First, lets start with the opening games in Europe. If you read any other fantasy websites you’ve probably already heard about Tyler Kennedy and Filip Kuba. If you haven’t, go pick them up right now. Injuries on the Penguins allowed Kennedy to play on a line with rising superstar Evgeni Malkin, and he took advantage. All he did was score two goals in the first game, including the overtime winner just seconds before the game went to a shootout. After two games he’s a healthy +2 and has 5 shots on goal. And if your league counts game winning goals, as mine does, he’s already shown he’s capable in that category.
Kuba looks like he’s going to be a beast on the blue line. He played over 25 minutes in both games overseas (close to 30 in one) and ran the point on what could turn into a solid power play. In 2 games he picked up 3 assists, 2 on the power play, so if your league counts power play points that’s a big plus. He only took 1 shot in the 2 games, but that won’t be the norm. He’s taken more than 100 shots in 6 of the last 7 seasons (2005-06), so he will shoot the puck. I don’t think his 3 points or his ice time were a fluke, and you should drop your worst defenseman for him right away.
I know I didn’t get a post in on my sleepers before most of you drafted, so here are some guys I’m high on this season that may still be available in your league.
R.J. Umberger – C – Blue Jackets
He had 50 points with the flyers last season, and now moves over to Columbus to center Rick Nash’s line. As long as he can hold his spot on that 1st line (and I don’t see him having too much competition there), he’ll put up numbers. Nash is ready to have a monster season and so you want anyone on the ice at the same time as he is. The only caveat with Umberger is that if he gets knocked off Nash’s line, get rid of him. The wing depth on the Blue Jackets is lacking, so he will have a lot more trouble contributing if he’s not on the ice with Nash.
Chris Clark – RW - Capitals
The Capitals captain was coming off a 30 goal season last year only to succumb to injury. First he nearly had his ear torn off by a puck, and if that wasn’t enough he injured his groin and was limited to 18 games last season. But he’s back healthy and ready to contribute again. Clark starts the season on the Caps 3rd line, where will play alongside veteran Michael Nylander and Tomas Fleischmann. He’ll also play on the Caps 2nd power play line with Ovechkin (who’s on both PP lines) and Mike Green. As long as someone wins a faceoff, the Caps 2nd PP line is as good as most teams’ 1st. Keep an eye on Clark to have a big year, and he gets penalty minutes too (43 of them in 18 games last season). Finally, if Viktor Kozlov gets hurt (he comes into the season with a nagging groin injury), Clark would take his place on the Caps top line playing alongside Ovechkin.
Alex Goligoski – D – Penguins
Here’s a guy who was 2nd in scoring in the Calder Cup playoffs in the AHL last season (2nd overall, not among defensemen). Now he’s on the big club, and could have a big impact to start the year. He’ll be running the point on one line of a dangerous Penguins power play while Sergei Gonchar is out with the injury. The Pens power play actually looked to be in trouble until Goligoski scoring the only goal of the Penguins 2nd game with just 2 seconds left in the 3rd period with the man advantage. He has all the tools to pick up points from the blue line until Gonchar comes back. If he plays like he’s capable, he could also make a real statement towards running point on the 2nd power play line even when Gonchar comes back.
Eric Fehr – RW – Capitals
**Deep Leagues Only**
Fehr is a talented forward who’s succumbed to injuries the past few seasons. Unfortunately he got caught up in a numbers game this season with the Caps and will likely be a healthy scratch early in the season. Keep an eye on the team though, because if a forward goes down Fehr would likely take their spot and then would be worth a pickup. He has all the tools to put together solid numbers this season if given the chance to skate as a top 6 forward.
Fantasy Basketball 2008: FG%, FT%
Great players will carry you in Fantasy NBA more than any other fantasy format. Why?
This article will explore FG% and FT%, two stats that can and will ultimately be determined by the player on your team who takes the most shots.
Here are the top 10 players in field goal and free throw attempts per game last year:
FG Attempts/Game
1. LeBron James, 21.9
2. Kobe Bryant, 20.6
3. Tracy McGrady, 19.8
4. Carmelo Anthony, 19.2
5. Allen Iverson, 19.0
6. Baron Davis, 18.6
7. Dwayne Wade, 18.4
8. Joe Johnson, 18.3
9(t). Richard Jefferson, Jason Richardson, 17.9
FT Attempts/Game
1. Dwight Howard, 10.9
2. LeBron James, 10.3
3(t). Corey Maggette, Allen Iverson, 9.7
5. Kevin Martin, 9.5
6. Dwayne Wade, 9.2
7. Kobe Bryant, 9.0
8. Amare Stoudamire, 8.7
9(t). Chris Bosh, Richard Jefferson, 8.3
Shot and Free Throw Attempts per game ultimately end up being the reason why your player who takes the most shots (who, hopefully, is your best player) will end up being the major determinant of your team FG and FT%. Unlike baseball, where most everyday players will end up with between 550-650 ABs during the season, not all NBA players will take the same total amount of shots. Dwayne Wade, at 9.2 FTA per game, will take more foul shots during one game than 350 NBA players take in one standard (3 game) week -- and no, not all of those 350 guys are the 10th-12th men in rotations.
How should you exploit this to your benefit? Whichever star player you end up building around needs to be surrounded with complimentary talent to reinforce or negate their shooting tendencies. If you have someone like Dwight Howard (~60% FG% on 12 attempts per game, 59% FT% on 11 attempts per game), you need to surround him with guys who, at the very least, are going to match his total number of FT attempts in a week (or year) and shoot ridiculously well while doing so. And you're going to need several of these guys to balance out that FT%. Also you'll need to look for guys that don't shoot too many field goals per game, unless you want to diminish one of D-Ho's greatest strengths (FG%).
If you do this successfully, you can essentially let one player carry you in either percentage (or 1/8-1/4 of the standard fantasy NBA categories).
This article will explore FG% and FT%, two stats that can and will ultimately be determined by the player on your team who takes the most shots.
Here are the top 10 players in field goal and free throw attempts per game last year:
FG Attempts/Game
1. LeBron James, 21.9
2. Kobe Bryant, 20.6
3. Tracy McGrady, 19.8
4. Carmelo Anthony, 19.2
5. Allen Iverson, 19.0
6. Baron Davis, 18.6
7. Dwayne Wade, 18.4
8. Joe Johnson, 18.3
9(t). Richard Jefferson, Jason Richardson, 17.9
FT Attempts/Game
1. Dwight Howard, 10.9
2. LeBron James, 10.3
3(t). Corey Maggette, Allen Iverson, 9.7
5. Kevin Martin, 9.5
6. Dwayne Wade, 9.2
7. Kobe Bryant, 9.0
8. Amare Stoudamire, 8.7
9(t). Chris Bosh, Richard Jefferson, 8.3
Shot and Free Throw Attempts per game ultimately end up being the reason why your player who takes the most shots (who, hopefully, is your best player) will end up being the major determinant of your team FG and FT%. Unlike baseball, where most everyday players will end up with between 550-650 ABs during the season, not all NBA players will take the same total amount of shots. Dwayne Wade, at 9.2 FTA per game, will take more foul shots during one game than 350 NBA players take in one standard (3 game) week -- and no, not all of those 350 guys are the 10th-12th men in rotations.
How should you exploit this to your benefit? Whichever star player you end up building around needs to be surrounded with complimentary talent to reinforce or negate their shooting tendencies. If you have someone like Dwight Howard (~60% FG% on 12 attempts per game, 59% FT% on 11 attempts per game), you need to surround him with guys who, at the very least, are going to match his total number of FT attempts in a week (or year) and shoot ridiculously well while doing so. And you're going to need several of these guys to balance out that FT%. Also you'll need to look for guys that don't shoot too many field goals per game, unless you want to diminish one of D-Ho's greatest strengths (FG%).
If you do this successfully, you can essentially let one player carry you in either percentage (or 1/8-1/4 of the standard fantasy NBA categories).
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Fantasy Basketball 2008: Turnovers
Turnovers are generally represented in NBA fantasy leagues as a negative stat -- you want the fewest number of turnovers per week in a head-to-head format or fewest turnovers on the season for rotisserie. For leagues that include Turnovers, most just treat it as a standard stat compiling category. Turnovers are bad, players that turn the ball over a lot are bad is the thinking behind that category, I suppose. The other way to represent TO is to use Assist/Turnover ratio, which at the very least is interesting because it measures successful plays against unsuccessful plays.
There are two main reasons why MLTS hates Turnovers as a stat in Fantasy NBA:
1. Players who turn the ball over a lot tend to be players that touch the ball a lot. As the number of touches a player gets increase (which at least represents confidence on the part of the team that this player can do well with the ball in his hands), the number of chances to turn the ball over increase. There are players that are adept at not turning the ball over, one of the best in the league being Chris Paul, but, in general, turnovers are a tax on being good at basketball. Since we're really only concerned with using good players on our fantasy teams, this is an unnecessary limit on value.
2. As turnovers are a stat that is often represented as something you want the fewest of, it naturally favors owners who aren't very active or totally inactive. In a competitive league, it is frustrating and detrimental to the overall competition to have someone benefit from inactivity.
So what should fantasy owners do to combat this? Ignore the stat. Players that have possession of the ball can generate the following outcomes: A made shot (points, FG%, FT%), a rebound (of their own miss), an assist or a turnover. Five potentially beneficial things vs. one bad thing. Players who don't have possession of the ball can rebound, block, steal or not turn the ball over. 3 beneficial things and one non-action.
There are two main reasons why MLTS hates Turnovers as a stat in Fantasy NBA:
1. Players who turn the ball over a lot tend to be players that touch the ball a lot. As the number of touches a player gets increase (which at least represents confidence on the part of the team that this player can do well with the ball in his hands), the number of chances to turn the ball over increase. There are players that are adept at not turning the ball over, one of the best in the league being Chris Paul, but, in general, turnovers are a tax on being good at basketball. Since we're really only concerned with using good players on our fantasy teams, this is an unnecessary limit on value.
2. As turnovers are a stat that is often represented as something you want the fewest of, it naturally favors owners who aren't very active or totally inactive. In a competitive league, it is frustrating and detrimental to the overall competition to have someone benefit from inactivity.
So what should fantasy owners do to combat this? Ignore the stat. Players that have possession of the ball can generate the following outcomes: A made shot (points, FG%, FT%), a rebound (of their own miss), an assist or a turnover. Five potentially beneficial things vs. one bad thing. Players who don't have possession of the ball can rebound, block, steal or not turn the ball over. 3 beneficial things and one non-action.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Fantasy Basketball 2008: Let's do this.
Points per game is a useless stat. You heard me right.
Fantasy NBA usually revolves around 8 or 9 categories. The major difference between leagues is whether or not a turnover metric is included. FG%, FT%, 3-Pointers Made, PPG, RPG, APG, SPG, BPG are the 8 categories that owners should concern themselves with. Even if your league uses turnovers as a 9th category, ignore the stat (future article). This article is going to discuss why you should largely ignore PPG as a stat when building a successful fantasy basketball team.
Every NBA game has a final score that is based on points scored. Players that receive the most media attention in the league are largely excellent scorers (Kobe, LeBron, DWade, etc). Because of this, undo attention is placed on points scored by fantasy owners. Why? 1/8 (or 1/9th) of your team's success is a function of how many points it scores. Blocks, steals, assists, rebounds and 3 pointers all carry the same weight as total points scored.
The reason why points scored is largely irrelevant compared to those other stat compiling categories (I'll explore FG% and FT% in later articles) is because of the relative rarity of blocks, steals, assists, etc., compared to points. Lets look at this from a perspective of points and blocks, taking a look at the 2007-2008 league leader in each category and then looking at the number of players who registered 1/3 of their output in the category.
LeBron James: 30.0 PPG
Marcus Camby: 3.6 BPG
# of players with 10.0 PPG: 131
# of player with 1.2 BPG: 36
Pretty striking difference, don't you think? Almost 4 times as many players have 10 ppg as opposed to 1.2 bpg.
Consider this: 12 of the 36 players averaging 1.2 bpg don't average 10 ppg. 12 players who are below 131 other players in points per game in the NBA acquire blocks, the rarest stat in fantasy basketball, at a higher rate than virtually the entire league.
Everyone in the NBA can score. Not everyone can block shots, steal the ball, get an assist or rebound. The key to finding value in fantasy basketball is to realize there are a select few stats, BPG and SPG in particular, that are incredibly rare on a per-game basis. The players who are ultimately extremely valuable, are ones that can get the common stats (PPG, RPG, APG) while acquiring blocks and steals at a high rate.
Fantasy NBA usually revolves around 8 or 9 categories. The major difference between leagues is whether or not a turnover metric is included. FG%, FT%, 3-Pointers Made, PPG, RPG, APG, SPG, BPG are the 8 categories that owners should concern themselves with. Even if your league uses turnovers as a 9th category, ignore the stat (future article). This article is going to discuss why you should largely ignore PPG as a stat when building a successful fantasy basketball team.
Every NBA game has a final score that is based on points scored. Players that receive the most media attention in the league are largely excellent scorers (Kobe, LeBron, DWade, etc). Because of this, undo attention is placed on points scored by fantasy owners. Why? 1/8 (or 1/9th) of your team's success is a function of how many points it scores. Blocks, steals, assists, rebounds and 3 pointers all carry the same weight as total points scored.
The reason why points scored is largely irrelevant compared to those other stat compiling categories (I'll explore FG% and FT% in later articles) is because of the relative rarity of blocks, steals, assists, etc., compared to points. Lets look at this from a perspective of points and blocks, taking a look at the 2007-2008 league leader in each category and then looking at the number of players who registered 1/3 of their output in the category.
LeBron James: 30.0 PPG
Marcus Camby: 3.6 BPG
# of players with 10.0 PPG: 131
# of player with 1.2 BPG: 36
Pretty striking difference, don't you think? Almost 4 times as many players have 10 ppg as opposed to 1.2 bpg.
Consider this: 12 of the 36 players averaging 1.2 bpg don't average 10 ppg. 12 players who are below 131 other players in points per game in the NBA acquire blocks, the rarest stat in fantasy basketball, at a higher rate than virtually the entire league.
Everyone in the NBA can score. Not everyone can block shots, steal the ball, get an assist or rebound. The key to finding value in fantasy basketball is to realize there are a select few stats, BPG and SPG in particular, that are incredibly rare on a per-game basis. The players who are ultimately extremely valuable, are ones that can get the common stats (PPG, RPG, APG) while acquiring blocks and steals at a high rate.
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Week 5 Picks
Week 5 - STL, NYJ, OAK, CLE on bye.
ARIZONA -1 Buffalo, O/U 44.5
The Cardinals will be without Anquan Boldin who is recovering from the vicious hit he took against the Jets in Week 4. Boldin-less, MLTS likes Larry Fitzgerald a ton in this game and figures that the Cardinals might try to run the ball a bit more. Expect WR Lee Evans to have a huge game for the Bills against an
MLTS Pick: Buffalo, under.
Start:
Sit:
CAROLINA -9.5 Kansas City, O/U 38.5
Fresh off of stifling Michael Turner, expect the
MLTS Pick:
Start:
Sit: Larry Johnson (The hate train keeps on rolling), The Kansas City Quarterback.
Chicago -3.5 DETROIT, O/U 44.5
Don’t worry
MLTS Pick: Bears, over.
Start: All offensive players except Lions RBs. Chi Defense.
Sit: Lions RBs.
-17 is a monster spread. Reports indicate that Carson Palmer will be out against
MLTS Pick:
Start:
Sit: The artist formerly known as Chad Johnson.
DENVER -3 Tampa Bay, O/U 48
MLTS Pick:
Start: Bucs O,
Sit:
This game looked a lot better for Green Bay before they lost Al Harris and half of their D-Line to injury. Green Bay comes into this game beat up on offense, too. Their success hinges on Aaron Rodgers being healthy – it seems he will be available for this game. Upgrade Michael Turner a little bit in this game, though he shouldn’t post the gaudy numbers he put up in week 1 and 3. Matt Ryan and Roddy White might have decent games against the GB secondary but I’m not really liking their chances since they’re on the road, away from the Dome they play so well in. So much of this game hinges on who Green Bay has available though, it is hard to say how it will turn out.
MLTS Pick: Green Bay
Start: GB Offense (downgrade Driver and Jennings if Rodgers isn’t going), Turner.
Sit: Norwood, Ryan, White.
Peyton Manning coming off of bye vs Matt Schaub at home. Schaub obviously reads MLTS and was infuriated by seeing us air his terrible road stats last week.
MLTS Pick: Indy, over.
Start: Every offensive player. Try to convince your non-Texans to join the Texans this week for fantasy purposes.
Sit: uh…
Game of the week candidate? Last time these teams met, the Jags knocked the Steelers out of the playoffs. Unfortunately for the Steelers, they’re coming into this game beat up from their Monday night game with the Ravens – Mewelde Moore is going to be their starting running back. Yes, he was #4 on the depth chart before this week. He should be a solid fantasy play, expect the Steelers to use him in the passing game a fair amount.
MLTS Pick: Jacksonville, over.
Start: MJD.
Sit:
New England -3
Who shows up for this game: Randy Moss, the malcontent or Randy Moss, the best WR in the NFL? You have to think that the Pats will try to get their passing game rolling early and often vs
MLTS Pick: NE, over.
Start: Frank Gore. NE WR.
Sit: O’Sullivan. SF WR.
GIANTS -7 Seattle, O/U 43.5
Yes,
Schwartz pick: Seattle, under.
DB pick: Giants, under.
Start: Giants RBs and Defense, Julius Jones, Bobby Engram.
Sit: Both QBs, Giants WR.
PHILADELPHIA -6 Washington, O/U 42.5
NFC East rock-paper-scissors game continues. Washington is fresh off of a great win against the Cowboys whereas Philly is left scratching their heads over their loss to the Bears. Reports are positive about the health of Brian Westbrook, I’m really hoping that he’ll be available for this game. If he is available, I’d expect Philly to test the Washington run defense, which held up against Marion Barber and the Cowboys in limited action. Like most NFC East games we’ll see this season, this game is going to come down to turnovers and field position.
MLTS Pick: Eagles, over.
Start: Philly O, Redskins passing offense.
Sit: Portis (Philly has one of the best Run defenses in the league).
San Diego -6.5 MIAMI, O/U 45
The good news? San Diego has given up a TD to every tight end they’ve faced so far this season. Congrats Anthony Fasano! Miami should be able to move the ball through the air if Brown or Pennington is throwing it. The bad news? San Diego has had adequate run defense and has a tendency to make you pass the ball by putting up a lot of points quickly. The Miami secondary is a pretty big mismatch for Phil Rivers, et al. This game is going to come down to the Miami offensive line opening big enough running lanes for Brown/Williams, something they should probably be able to do. Expect some more offensive trickery from Miami, since they’re coming off of bye.
MLTS Pick: San Diego, over.
Start: San Diego. Fasano, Brown, Williams.
Sit: Pennington.
Tennessee -3 BALTIMORE, O/U 33.5
The two best defenses in the NFL face off this week. MLTS is giving a slight edge to Tennessee because Baltimore is coming off of a short week (against a Pittsburgh team that left them pretty banged up) and TEN RBs are healthy. Flacco looked good against the Steelers last week and the Ravens gave him an effective game-plan. This week will be different, the TEN defensive line is incredible and their secondary is tops in the NFL. Kerry Collins hasn’t made any major gaffes yet for the Titans – expect that to change unless he exercises extreme caution against a dangerous Ravens secondary. Big defensive plays should lead to some interesting short field opportunities for each team’s running game.
Schwartz Pick: Baltimore, over.
DB Pick: Tennessee, over.
Start: Both Defenses, TEN RBs, McGahee, Ray Rice.
Sit: Both QBs, all WR.
NEW ORLEANS -3 Minnesota, O/U 46.5
New Orleans can win this game one way and one way only. They’re going to have to attack the Vikings through the air. As such, look for more Reggie Bush, NO Wideouts and less Duece McAllister. On the other side of the ball, the Vikings come into this game needing to win in a big way. Gus Frerotte shouldn’t handicap them too much this game, as the NO defense is terribad. Adrian Peterson should have his best game of the season so far, anything less than 150 yards and 2 scores should be a disappointment.
MLTS Pick: Minnesota, under.
Start: AP, NO passing game.
Sit: McAllister, Frerotte, MIN WR.
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