1. Watch out Wilford Bremley, Jay Cutler is making a strong case for being the face of Di-uh-beetus advertising in the future. Denver's final 14 games work out to be pretty favorable, though he will face the defenses of New England, Buffalo, Jacksonville and Tampa Bay. Expect more of the same from Jay Cutler, he could very easily be a top 3 QB this year.
2. The Bengals aren't going to be much better than they are now. Carson Palmer isn't this bad (228 yards, 3 INT, 1 fumble) but his schedule isn't going to make it much easier on him. You can justify his poor performance by saying he hasn't had enough time to develop timing with his recievers, that he was playing in terrible weather conditions and that he's faced two of the best pass defenses in the NFL in the first two weeks of the season. Ultimately, does he return to form and end up a top ten QB? At NYG, vs CLE, at DAL, at NYJ, vs PIT, at HOU, vs JAC is what he has to face going into the bye week -- you could even argue that KC in Week 17 is the only favorable matchup for Palmer this season. Don't be surprised if several of their players opt to be imprisoned over that bye week instead of finishing out the season.
3. 2008 Anthony Gonzalez = 2007 Wes Welker. They're both white, they both line up in the slot, both catch (or caught) balls from Hall of Fame QBs and both are going to be great values in PPR leagues. Marvin Harrison looks terrible. Wayne : Moss :: Gonzalez : Welker.
4. Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson may be better fantasy options than previously thought. San Diego's defense has been anything but lights out so far this season. Expect them to give up a ton of points, especially in the passing game, and resort to throwing the ball a ton. If LT is out for any period of time, Chambers and Jackson are going to get more work.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Week 2 Picks
One week in the books. Schwartz and I both got killed in the first week, now that we have some actual results to examine for the 2008 NFL season, hopefully we'll do a little better.
For the purpose of overall records, if either one of us incorrectly chose the over/under but got the pick against the spread correct it will be counted as a tie. If we missed the pick against the spread but correctly picked the over/under, it will be counted as a loss.
Records through Week 1:
Schwartz: 4-7-5
DB: 5-9-2
BENGALS (-1.5) vs. Titans. O/U 37.5
Big questions on both sides of the ball here. Kerry Collins is starting for the Titans. Carson Palmer looked brutal against the Ravens. Can the Tennessee defense be as dominant as it was in Week 1? This game comes down to Chris Johnson. Baltimore running backs played very well against a weak Bengals run defense. Since the Titans aren't going to be able to field a QB that requires a QB spy, the Bengals might look a little better against the run, however.
Schwartz: Titans, under.
DB: Titans, under.
REDSKINS (-.5) vs. Saints. O/U 42
Earnest Graham put up 9 yards per carry against the Saints last week. Schwartz and I really like Clinton Portis in this one, but don't think very highly of the rest of the Redskins. Look for increased production from Jeremy Shockey and David Patten in the passing game. Brees shouldn't have all day to throw in the pocket because the Redskins do get after the passer, but he'll be able to make them pay with checkdowns to his two possession guys. Reggie Bush is probably poised for another big day, especially if you play PPR. Saints roll.
Schwartz: NO, over.
DB: NO, over.
PANTHERS (-2.5) vs. Bears. O/U 37
Don't expect a ton out of Matt Forte this week. Don't expect a ton out of anyone on Carolina, either. Two solid defenses face off here for a brutal game of football. Devin Hester is supposedly going to see more looks in the passing game, according to the Chicago offensive coordinator. Just about every single matchup in this game is lopsided in favor of the defense, fantasy players beware.
Schwartz: Bears, under
DB: Bears, under.
JAGUARS (-6.5) vs. Bills. O/U 37
This line doesn't really give the Bills credit for anything that happened in Week 1, does it? The Jags offensive line is beat up, devaluing Gerrard and Co., but we're both skeptical of every offensive player on the Bills outside of Marshawn Lynch. Maybe they go on the road and win, inducing panic in Jacksonville and hope in Buffalo?
Schwartz: Bills, over.
DB: Bills, under.
Packers (-2.5) vs. LIONS. O/U 45.
Ryan Grant may be dinged up and see limited action, but I'll remind you that Michael Turner had roughly 150 yards and 2 scores in his first 10 carries last week against the Lions defense. Aaron Rodgers on the road is worth mentioning, perhaps he doesn't look as poised as he did on Monday night. Kitna and those wideouts are going to have solid days once again, provided Kitna doesn't cough up the ball much. Detriot will be chasing from the opening kickoff.
Schwartz: Packers, under.
DB: Packers, under.
CHIEFS (-3.5) vs. Raiders. O/U 36.
Huard to Bowe was, at one point, a nice surprise for fantasy owners. Count on that again. Larry Johnson ran hard against New England last week, a significantly better defense than what Oakland is going to trot out in Week 2. Expect a lot of running in this game on both sides. Neither of us like JaMarcus in what projects to be a pretty close game just yet.
Schwartz: KC, over.
DB: KC, over.
Giants (-8.5) vs. RAMS. O/U 42.
Defending Super Bowl Champions against what is projecting out to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Rams might make it closer than they did against Philly, but this one won't be close. SJax, Bulger and Holt really need to rebound this week for St. Louis to avoid being laughed off the field in their home opener.
Schwartz: NYG, over.
DB: NYG, over.
Colts (-1.5) vs. VIKINGS. O/U 43.5
Schwartz loves the Colts in this one, describing the pick as "EASY, EASY, EASY!" I'm skeptical of the Colts if Clark is going to be out and Addai is banged up. Expect a MONSTER day from Adrian Peterson against a terrible Colts run defense. The only thing that gives me momentary pause in picking the Vikes, is Tom Moore's description of his playcalling, as told on SNF, "I don't call plays, I give him [Manning] concepts." Conceptually, I can get behind Tom Moore being my grandpa.
Schwartz: Colts, over.
DB: Vikings, over.
SEAHAWKS (-8.5) vs. Niners. O/U 38.5
Neither of us were especially worried about Seattle needing to beat the Niners by 9, we were worried that Seattle would be unable to score 9. Courtney Taylor is getting a start at WR for the Seahawks this week. I'm pretty sure that was a semi-attractive (at the time) girl from my high school (his other recievers are Jordan Kent and Logan Payne, by the way). None of this inspires confidence.
Schwartz: SF, under.
DB: SF, under.
BUCCANEERS (-8.5) vs. Falcons. O/U 37.5
Brian Griese is starting for Tampa. GO CRAZY BUCS FANS! Michael Turner should have a decent day against the Bucs, but it keep in mind that he's played his best game of the season already. We'll find out if the Falcons offense is capable of replicating what they did in Week 1 against a defense that is actually filled with NFL caliber players.
Schwartz: TB, over.
DB: TB, over.
CARDINALS (-6.5) vs. Dolphins. O/U 39.
Chad Pennington is going to be able to lead the Dolphins to two scores in this one, but that's about it. The Dolphins face better WR than they did last week, look for them to get shredded.
Schwartz: Arizona, over.
DB: Arizona, over.
JETS (-2.5) vs. Pats. O/U 37.
MLTS wishes Matt Cassel all the best in his first start since his senior year of high school. He was, by all accounts, an excellent high school player. If you play well, supermodels and cameos galore, pal. Schwartz summed this one up nicely:
1) pats hate the jets
For the purpose of overall records, if either one of us incorrectly chose the over/under but got the pick against the spread correct it will be counted as a tie. If we missed the pick against the spread but correctly picked the over/under, it will be counted as a loss.
Records through Week 1:
Schwartz: 4-7-5
DB: 5-9-2
BENGALS (-1.5) vs. Titans. O/U 37.5
Big questions on both sides of the ball here. Kerry Collins is starting for the Titans. Carson Palmer looked brutal against the Ravens. Can the Tennessee defense be as dominant as it was in Week 1? This game comes down to Chris Johnson. Baltimore running backs played very well against a weak Bengals run defense. Since the Titans aren't going to be able to field a QB that requires a QB spy, the Bengals might look a little better against the run, however.
Schwartz: Titans, under.
DB: Titans, under.
REDSKINS (-.5) vs. Saints. O/U 42
Earnest Graham put up 9 yards per carry against the Saints last week. Schwartz and I really like Clinton Portis in this one, but don't think very highly of the rest of the Redskins. Look for increased production from Jeremy Shockey and David Patten in the passing game. Brees shouldn't have all day to throw in the pocket because the Redskins do get after the passer, but he'll be able to make them pay with checkdowns to his two possession guys. Reggie Bush is probably poised for another big day, especially if you play PPR. Saints roll.
Schwartz: NO, over.
DB: NO, over.
PANTHERS (-2.5) vs. Bears. O/U 37
Don't expect a ton out of Matt Forte this week. Don't expect a ton out of anyone on Carolina, either. Two solid defenses face off here for a brutal game of football. Devin Hester is supposedly going to see more looks in the passing game, according to the Chicago offensive coordinator. Just about every single matchup in this game is lopsided in favor of the defense, fantasy players beware.
Schwartz: Bears, under
DB: Bears, under.
JAGUARS (-6.5) vs. Bills. O/U 37
This line doesn't really give the Bills credit for anything that happened in Week 1, does it? The Jags offensive line is beat up, devaluing Gerrard and Co., but we're both skeptical of every offensive player on the Bills outside of Marshawn Lynch. Maybe they go on the road and win, inducing panic in Jacksonville and hope in Buffalo?
Schwartz: Bills, over.
DB: Bills, under.
Packers (-2.5) vs. LIONS. O/U 45.
Ryan Grant may be dinged up and see limited action, but I'll remind you that Michael Turner had roughly 150 yards and 2 scores in his first 10 carries last week against the Lions defense. Aaron Rodgers on the road is worth mentioning, perhaps he doesn't look as poised as he did on Monday night. Kitna and those wideouts are going to have solid days once again, provided Kitna doesn't cough up the ball much. Detriot will be chasing from the opening kickoff.
Schwartz: Packers, under.
DB: Packers, under.
CHIEFS (-3.5) vs. Raiders. O/U 36.
Huard to Bowe was, at one point, a nice surprise for fantasy owners. Count on that again. Larry Johnson ran hard against New England last week, a significantly better defense than what Oakland is going to trot out in Week 2. Expect a lot of running in this game on both sides. Neither of us like JaMarcus in what projects to be a pretty close game just yet.
Schwartz: KC, over.
DB: KC, over.
Giants (-8.5) vs. RAMS. O/U 42.
Defending Super Bowl Champions against what is projecting out to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Rams might make it closer than they did against Philly, but this one won't be close. SJax, Bulger and Holt really need to rebound this week for St. Louis to avoid being laughed off the field in their home opener.
Schwartz: NYG, over.
DB: NYG, over.
Colts (-1.5) vs. VIKINGS. O/U 43.5
Schwartz loves the Colts in this one, describing the pick as "EASY, EASY, EASY!" I'm skeptical of the Colts if Clark is going to be out and Addai is banged up. Expect a MONSTER day from Adrian Peterson against a terrible Colts run defense. The only thing that gives me momentary pause in picking the Vikes, is Tom Moore's description of his playcalling, as told on SNF, "I don't call plays, I give him [Manning] concepts." Conceptually, I can get behind Tom Moore being my grandpa.
Schwartz: Colts, over.
DB: Vikings, over.
SEAHAWKS (-8.5) vs. Niners. O/U 38.5
Neither of us were especially worried about Seattle needing to beat the Niners by 9, we were worried that Seattle would be unable to score 9. Courtney Taylor is getting a start at WR for the Seahawks this week. I'm pretty sure that was a semi-attractive (at the time) girl from my high school (his other recievers are Jordan Kent and Logan Payne, by the way). None of this inspires confidence.
Schwartz: SF, under.
DB: SF, under.
BUCCANEERS (-8.5) vs. Falcons. O/U 37.5
Brian Griese is starting for Tampa. GO CRAZY BUCS FANS! Michael Turner should have a decent day against the Bucs, but it keep in mind that he's played his best game of the season already. We'll find out if the Falcons offense is capable of replicating what they did in Week 1 against a defense that is actually filled with NFL caliber players.
Schwartz: TB, over.
DB: TB, over.
CARDINALS (-6.5) vs. Dolphins. O/U 39.
Chad Pennington is going to be able to lead the Dolphins to two scores in this one, but that's about it. The Dolphins face better WR than they did last week, look for them to get shredded.
Schwartz: Arizona, over.
DB: Arizona, over.
JETS (-2.5) vs. Pats. O/U 37.
MLTS wishes Matt Cassel all the best in his first start since his senior year of high school. He was, by all accounts, an excellent high school player. If you play well, supermodels and cameos galore, pal. Schwartz summed this one up nicely:
1) pats hate the jets
2) cassel has 1 week of planning to start
3) pats hate the jets
4) bill beeeeeeeeeeeeelicheck is still the coach of the pats
5) cassel already knows to throw to moss 100 times a game
Schwartz: Pats, over.
DB: Pats, over.
TEXANS (-4.5) vs. Ravens. O/U 37.5
Both of us were confused by this game. The Ravens have a legit defense, the Texans are supposedly good and get the boon of playing against the Ravens offense. This one will be close throughout and could go either way.
Schwartz: Baltimore, under.
DB: Baltimore, under.
Chargers (-2.5) vs. BRONCOS. O/U 45.5.
Broncos passing game looked great, San Diego pass defense looked bad. Broncos run defense looked bad, San Diego starts a guy named LaDanian Tomlinson weekly. Expect this one to be high scoring. Eddie Royal will not catch 9 balls for 146 yards this week.
Schwartz: Broncos, over.
DB: Broncos, over.
Steelers (-5.5) vs. BROWNS. O/U 44.5
Huge fantasy implications in this game. Everyone is a go, except maybe Jamal Lewis (if you have a better alternative), who hasn't been very good against an excellent Pittsburgh run defense.
Schwartz: Steelers, over.
DB: Steelers, over.
COWBOYS (-6.5) vs. Eagles. O/U 47.
Easily the game of the week. The two teams that looked the best in Week 1 face off. The spread feels way too big not to take the Eagles in this one.
Schwartz: Eagles, over.
DB: Eagles, under.
Schwartz: Pats, over.
DB: Pats, over.
TEXANS (-4.5) vs. Ravens. O/U 37.5
Both of us were confused by this game. The Ravens have a legit defense, the Texans are supposedly good and get the boon of playing against the Ravens offense. This one will be close throughout and could go either way.
Schwartz: Baltimore, under.
DB: Baltimore, under.
Chargers (-2.5) vs. BRONCOS. O/U 45.5.
Broncos passing game looked great, San Diego pass defense looked bad. Broncos run defense looked bad, San Diego starts a guy named LaDanian Tomlinson weekly. Expect this one to be high scoring. Eddie Royal will not catch 9 balls for 146 yards this week.
Schwartz: Broncos, over.
DB: Broncos, over.
Steelers (-5.5) vs. BROWNS. O/U 44.5
Huge fantasy implications in this game. Everyone is a go, except maybe Jamal Lewis (if you have a better alternative), who hasn't been very good against an excellent Pittsburgh run defense.
Schwartz: Steelers, over.
DB: Steelers, over.
COWBOYS (-6.5) vs. Eagles. O/U 47.
Easily the game of the week. The two teams that looked the best in Week 1 face off. The spread feels way too big not to take the Eagles in this one.
Schwartz: Eagles, over.
DB: Eagles, under.
NFL Week 2: Finding Trends
The highly anticipated first week of NFL action came and went Thursday-Monday. There was a great disturbance in the fantasy football force, as if thousands of Tom Brady owners cried out at once and were then silenced. Eddie Royal and Michael Turner were both traded for vastly superior talent. Aaron Rodgers made some of the Green Bay faithful into believers (the MLTS crew were already believers).
Quite a few expectations in Week 1 were fulfilled, and, naturally, there were some surprising developments. Here are some things that could turn into trends this season, in no particular order.
1. Carson Palmer may not be a top 10 fantasy quarterback. He looked abysmal against an excellent Ravens defense, one that he'll have to play again. Expect Houshmandzadeh and Chad Ocho Cinco (Housh and COC for the rest of this article) to suffer accordingly. Cincinnatti's run game is lousy, their line is lousy and Palmer/COC haven't had the cleanest injury histories. The flip side of this is that the Ravens are an excellent defense and Palmer/COC/Housh didn't really take many preseason snaps. CIN's game vs. TEN this week is going to be a big one. Palmer should get better protection than Gerrard did because his O-Line is technically on the field, unlike Gerrards.
2. The Rams might not have any viable fantasy players. Or at least they won't get you the return you were expecting. They were, without a doubt, the worst looking team in the NFL last week. Holt didn't get separation, Jackson couldn't find any holes, Bulger held on to the ball forever and got knocked around. The Giants are a good defense, but not on the same level as the Eagles in my estimation. If the Rams don't put up 14-17 points in this game I'm going to be very worried about owning all of the aforementioned players. The silver lining here is that the Rams will have 6 of their last 14 games against the terrible NFC West, so anything can happen from a fantasy perspective.
3. Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall may be the only sure things on Denver from a fantasy perspective. I'm really high on Tony Scheffler (1 reception, 72 yards. 1 drop in the end zone (THAT HIT HIM RIGHT ON THE NUMBERS! CHRIST, YOU HAVE TO CATCH THAT!)) but Mike Shanahan didn't look at Scheffler after he dropped the TD pass, he wasn't even on the field much. Their RB situation is still a mess from a fantasy perspective, it's really too bad they don't have just one back -- 142 yards and 3 TDs would be a monster day. Eddie Royal looked incredible on Monday, but Shanahan might decide he's better than every other coach out there and go with a 7 WR, 3 TE, 3 RB committee everywhere. Really loving Cutler, though.
4. Matt Forte is not as good as he was on Sunday. The Colts have a terrible run defense and have had a terrible run defense for the last... well, always. I really liked what Forte did in that game but as he gets into the tougher defenses in the NFL, starting with Carolina this week, look for him to fade. The good thing is that he gets 2 games against the Lions.
5. Anthony Fasano is going to lead the Dolphins in receptions and receiving yards. This one is sort of a microcosm of a larger trend this year in fantasy -- incredible TE depth. If you missed out on Witten and Winslow, you may be able to match their production playing matchups off of waivers (in shallow leagues). Not kidding.
6. Steelers wideouts are going to be tremendous this year. I know that might not be the expected angle to take after such a superlative day from Willie Parker, but if teams are going to have to stack the box to prevent future outbreaks like that, watch out for Big Ben, Holmes and Ward. 25 yard post patterns for TDs galore.
Quite a few expectations in Week 1 were fulfilled, and, naturally, there were some surprising developments. Here are some things that could turn into trends this season, in no particular order.
1. Carson Palmer may not be a top 10 fantasy quarterback. He looked abysmal against an excellent Ravens defense, one that he'll have to play again. Expect Houshmandzadeh and Chad Ocho Cinco (Housh and COC for the rest of this article) to suffer accordingly. Cincinnatti's run game is lousy, their line is lousy and Palmer/COC haven't had the cleanest injury histories. The flip side of this is that the Ravens are an excellent defense and Palmer/COC/Housh didn't really take many preseason snaps. CIN's game vs. TEN this week is going to be a big one. Palmer should get better protection than Gerrard did because his O-Line is technically on the field, unlike Gerrards.
2. The Rams might not have any viable fantasy players. Or at least they won't get you the return you were expecting. They were, without a doubt, the worst looking team in the NFL last week. Holt didn't get separation, Jackson couldn't find any holes, Bulger held on to the ball forever and got knocked around. The Giants are a good defense, but not on the same level as the Eagles in my estimation. If the Rams don't put up 14-17 points in this game I'm going to be very worried about owning all of the aforementioned players. The silver lining here is that the Rams will have 6 of their last 14 games against the terrible NFC West, so anything can happen from a fantasy perspective.
3. Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall may be the only sure things on Denver from a fantasy perspective. I'm really high on Tony Scheffler (1 reception, 72 yards. 1 drop in the end zone (THAT HIT HIM RIGHT ON THE NUMBERS! CHRIST, YOU HAVE TO CATCH THAT!)) but Mike Shanahan didn't look at Scheffler after he dropped the TD pass, he wasn't even on the field much. Their RB situation is still a mess from a fantasy perspective, it's really too bad they don't have just one back -- 142 yards and 3 TDs would be a monster day. Eddie Royal looked incredible on Monday, but Shanahan might decide he's better than every other coach out there and go with a 7 WR, 3 TE, 3 RB committee everywhere. Really loving Cutler, though.
4. Matt Forte is not as good as he was on Sunday. The Colts have a terrible run defense and have had a terrible run defense for the last... well, always. I really liked what Forte did in that game but as he gets into the tougher defenses in the NFL, starting with Carolina this week, look for him to fade. The good thing is that he gets 2 games against the Lions.
5. Anthony Fasano is going to lead the Dolphins in receptions and receiving yards. This one is sort of a microcosm of a larger trend this year in fantasy -- incredible TE depth. If you missed out on Witten and Winslow, you may be able to match their production playing matchups off of waivers (in shallow leagues). Not kidding.
6. Steelers wideouts are going to be tremendous this year. I know that might not be the expected angle to take after such a superlative day from Willie Parker, but if teams are going to have to stack the box to prevent future outbreaks like that, watch out for Big Ben, Holmes and Ward. 25 yard post patterns for TDs galore.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Eddie Royal and the Emergence of a Fantasy Star
It has often been stated that predicting fantasy breakouts in football is less about a player making a big adjustment to his game and more about opportunity. I very much agree with this outlook, and so when I look at Week 1 performances, I don't want to see a guy who had two receptions for 70 yards and two scores, I want to see a guy who was featured prominently in the offense. With this in mind, lets look at the top surprise in the NFL in Week 1 - Eddie Royal.
Wow. Isn't DeAngelo Hall an elite NFL defensive back? Wasn't Gibril Wilson brought to OAK from the defending Superbowl Champion New York Giants to shore up a shoddy pass defense? There is a lot to love about Eddie Royal. Lets throw some numbers at you:
11 - The number of targets Eddie Royal received. Everyone has been talking about how a new sheriff is in town once Brandon Marshall returns, but the fact remains that Eddie Royal just put up the best week by a WR in the NFL. The Denver running game has lacked some of the explosiveness of yore, and Jay Cutler appears to be emerging as (at least) a viable top-10 NFL QB - if Denver does convert into a passing-style offense, Marshall's return may actually help Royal's stats. With his agility and crisp route-running, Royal can carve up most #2 cornerbacks in the league, and if Marshall is a vertical threat, Royal is at worst going to be a solid performer in a Wes Welker-esque mold of receiver.
7 - This is the number of first downs Royal registered. He caught 9 balls, and 7 of them moved the chains. If there is one thing that NFL coaches and QBs love, it's wide receivers who don't fall a yard in front of the first down marker. Royal's quickness forced Hall to play a few steps off him on man-to-man packages, and his route running allowed him to quickly find the seam in every zone the Raiders were putting out there. 2 of the 7 First Downs were recorded on 3rd down situations for DEN.
0 - This is the number of passes Royal caught inside the OAK 20 yard-line. Some of you may look at this as a bad number - and indeed, in many contexts it is - but it is also a really promising figure for one imporant reason - elite players (like Marshall) are the fixtures of Red Zone offenses. If Royal's Week 1 breakout were attributable to his being the number one option as Denver marched towards the goalposts, you could expect a large decline in his numbers. Instead, Royal was used to great effect as a catalyst to starting drives. This means that perhaps we can look to Royal more as a more consistent, possession-type WR than guys like Greg Jennings of GB whose value last year was enhanced greatly by an unsustainable TD rate.
5 - The number of non-reception touches Royal had on Monday night. Two punt returns, two rushes, and one passing attempt. If there's one thing that demonstrates a coach's knowledge that a player has a unique and dangerous skillset, it is the attempt to get the player touching the ball in as many different situations as possible. Clearly, Mike Shanahan did not overlook Royal as a potential gamebreaker in Week 1. As a smart fantasy owner, you should look at the stats a little more deeply and realize that this is the start of a legitimate breakout year.
Wow. Isn't DeAngelo Hall an elite NFL defensive back? Wasn't Gibril Wilson brought to OAK from the defending Superbowl Champion New York Giants to shore up a shoddy pass defense? There is a lot to love about Eddie Royal. Lets throw some numbers at you:
11 - The number of targets Eddie Royal received. Everyone has been talking about how a new sheriff is in town once Brandon Marshall returns, but the fact remains that Eddie Royal just put up the best week by a WR in the NFL. The Denver running game has lacked some of the explosiveness of yore, and Jay Cutler appears to be emerging as (at least) a viable top-10 NFL QB - if Denver does convert into a passing-style offense, Marshall's return may actually help Royal's stats. With his agility and crisp route-running, Royal can carve up most #2 cornerbacks in the league, and if Marshall is a vertical threat, Royal is at worst going to be a solid performer in a Wes Welker-esque mold of receiver.
7 - This is the number of first downs Royal registered. He caught 9 balls, and 7 of them moved the chains. If there is one thing that NFL coaches and QBs love, it's wide receivers who don't fall a yard in front of the first down marker. Royal's quickness forced Hall to play a few steps off him on man-to-man packages, and his route running allowed him to quickly find the seam in every zone the Raiders were putting out there. 2 of the 7 First Downs were recorded on 3rd down situations for DEN.
0 - This is the number of passes Royal caught inside the OAK 20 yard-line. Some of you may look at this as a bad number - and indeed, in many contexts it is - but it is also a really promising figure for one imporant reason - elite players (like Marshall) are the fixtures of Red Zone offenses. If Royal's Week 1 breakout were attributable to his being the number one option as Denver marched towards the goalposts, you could expect a large decline in his numbers. Instead, Royal was used to great effect as a catalyst to starting drives. This means that perhaps we can look to Royal more as a more consistent, possession-type WR than guys like Greg Jennings of GB whose value last year was enhanced greatly by an unsustainable TD rate.
5 - The number of non-reception touches Royal had on Monday night. Two punt returns, two rushes, and one passing attempt. If there's one thing that demonstrates a coach's knowledge that a player has a unique and dangerous skillset, it is the attempt to get the player touching the ball in as many different situations as possible. Clearly, Mike Shanahan did not overlook Royal as a potential gamebreaker in Week 1. As a smart fantasy owner, you should look at the stats a little more deeply and realize that this is the start of a legitimate breakout year.
Friday, September 5, 2008
The Offensive Line
Breakout seasons are the key to success in fantasy sports. I already talked about how hard it is to predict who is going to breakout, but that does not mean that it's impossible. While no one is going to be perfect in their ability to predict monster seasons, there is a very important rule that applies to fantasy football breakouts that you should be aware of:
The success of skill position players is more often than not attributable to the offensive line.
With the exception of perhaps the greatest running back in the history of the league (Barry Sanders), running backs cannot succeed without good blockers. Period. Offensive lines give QBs more time (sometimes this works the other way, where a really talented, quick releasing QB can make an offensive line look better than it is), and WRs can find time to get open if the QB isn't forced to throw without scanning the field.
So, with that said, here are three offensive lines I really like, and the skill position players that benefit the most:
Cleveland Browns - Joe Thomas is the best offensive lineman in the NFL. Eric Steinbach, the former Cincinnati LG that Cleveland signed last summer completes the best left side to an offensive line in the NFL. Unsurprisingly, fantasy castoffs Derek Anderson and Jamal Lewis had surprisingly productive seasons last year. This isn't rocket science. I expect that Derek Anderson and Jamal Lewis - who experienced a bounce from 3.6 YPC in 2006 with BAL to 4.4 YPC in 2007 - will hold their jobs for the entirety of this season and be very good players - this will also benefit Braylon Edwards. If Anderson does have a rough start and Brady Quinn comes in, watch out - the ingredients are there for instant fantasy success.
New York Giants - Chris Snee, the best OL on the team, is married to the coach's daughter. They have a converted guard playing tackle. They have a history of false start penalties (prior to last year). But, at the end of the day, this line can run block. Whether it's Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, or Ahmad Bradshaw, the Giants are going to get extremely productive RB numbers. Expect inflated YPC, good goalline numbers, and a run-early run-often mentality. The unit as a whole is not as good versus the pass rush - yet - but if they continue to improve, Eli Manning, Plaxico Burress, and Steve Smith could have stronger years than expected.
Green Bay Packers - From 2004 to 2006, Brett Favre watched his completion percentage fall and his TD/Int ratio follow a dangerous trend:
Completion %, TD/Int Ratio by Year
2004: 64.1% 1.76 Ratio
2005: 61.3% .69 Ratio
2006: 56.0% 1.00 Ratio
Then, a funny thing happened in 2007:
2007: 66.5% 1.87 Ratio
Now, the media will have you believe that Favre rediscovered the fountain of youth, but the reality is that the Packers offensive line contributed immensely to Favre's success and Ryan Grant's emergence as a legitimate NFL running back. Expect surprisingly good numbers for Aaron Rodgers all year - a solid offensive line and 2 very good WRs in Donald Driver and Greg Jennings should be major factors in Rodgers emergence as a very good QB - and fantasy QB - in 2008 and beyond.
The success of skill position players is more often than not attributable to the offensive line.
With the exception of perhaps the greatest running back in the history of the league (Barry Sanders), running backs cannot succeed without good blockers. Period. Offensive lines give QBs more time (sometimes this works the other way, where a really talented, quick releasing QB can make an offensive line look better than it is), and WRs can find time to get open if the QB isn't forced to throw without scanning the field.
So, with that said, here are three offensive lines I really like, and the skill position players that benefit the most:
Cleveland Browns - Joe Thomas is the best offensive lineman in the NFL. Eric Steinbach, the former Cincinnati LG that Cleveland signed last summer completes the best left side to an offensive line in the NFL. Unsurprisingly, fantasy castoffs Derek Anderson and Jamal Lewis had surprisingly productive seasons last year. This isn't rocket science. I expect that Derek Anderson and Jamal Lewis - who experienced a bounce from 3.6 YPC in 2006 with BAL to 4.4 YPC in 2007 - will hold their jobs for the entirety of this season and be very good players - this will also benefit Braylon Edwards. If Anderson does have a rough start and Brady Quinn comes in, watch out - the ingredients are there for instant fantasy success.
New York Giants - Chris Snee, the best OL on the team, is married to the coach's daughter. They have a converted guard playing tackle. They have a history of false start penalties (prior to last year). But, at the end of the day, this line can run block. Whether it's Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, or Ahmad Bradshaw, the Giants are going to get extremely productive RB numbers. Expect inflated YPC, good goalline numbers, and a run-early run-often mentality. The unit as a whole is not as good versus the pass rush - yet - but if they continue to improve, Eli Manning, Plaxico Burress, and Steve Smith could have stronger years than expected.
Green Bay Packers - From 2004 to 2006, Brett Favre watched his completion percentage fall and his TD/Int ratio follow a dangerous trend:
Completion %, TD/Int Ratio by Year
2004: 64.1% 1.76 Ratio
2005: 61.3% .69 Ratio
2006: 56.0% 1.00 Ratio
Then, a funny thing happened in 2007:
2007: 66.5% 1.87 Ratio
Now, the media will have you believe that Favre rediscovered the fountain of youth, but the reality is that the Packers offensive line contributed immensely to Favre's success and Ryan Grant's emergence as a legitimate NFL running back. Expect surprisingly good numbers for Aaron Rodgers all year - a solid offensive line and 2 very good WRs in Donald Driver and Greg Jennings should be major factors in Rodgers emergence as a very good QB - and fantasy QB - in 2008 and beyond.
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