Week 11 Picks: Hissing Favorites, Are You The Destroyer?

The NFL season is well over the half-way point, past the fantasy nightmares of bye weeks and injuries are piling up across the board. In Week 11, we've got a pretty good handle on all of these teams and what they're capable of. Knowledge is power, hopefully it'll help out our spread picks. MLTS Picks are highlighted in this edition, Schwartz and I did diverge on one game and that will be explained.

ATLANTA FALCONS (6-3) -5.5 Denver Broncos (5-4)

We know the Atlanta story well by now: Matt Ryan looks like the best rookie quarterback of the last decade, Roddy White has emerged as a top 6ish WR, Michael Turner is being heralded as a great Free Agent signing and one of the top backs in the NFL (in spite of being shut down by every legit defense in the NFL). This team plays well at home and gets rather inspired defense play at times, especially from the pass rush. Atlanta is a legit NFL team right now, maybe not a playoff team in loaded NFC South, but light years ahead of last year.

Denver still possesses the same explosive offense, albiet a little different than it was early in the year. Running-back less (Sorry, I'm not going to dignify Tatum Bell and Peyton Hillis as "Running Backs") but marching on with Cutler/Marshall/Royal/Scheffler/Stokley. Denver will be able to move the ball but eventually the Atlanta pass rush will connect a few times, forcing mistakes. There's also the minor problem of Denver having no discernable defense, staffed almost entirely by backup linebackers and defensive backs.

Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) -9.5 CINCINNATI BENGALS (1-8)

Bill Simmons has the Eagles figured out for gambling purposes: Take them against bad teams and pick against them against good teams. The Bengals are a bad team.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (4-5) -5.5 Chicago Bears (5-4)

Here it is, the great point of contention for the week. Schwartz is taking the Packers (and I don't blame him), where as I am taking the Bears (mostly for the points).

Green Bay throws the ball extremely well and, while their offensive line has not been as good as it was last year, will surely look adequate against the Bears pass rush. In spite of the assumed talent level in the defensive secodary of the Bears, zero QB pressure and virtually no blitzing from the scheme means easy completions. The Packers should put up plenty of points in this game, with a turnover-fest really the only way for the Bears to stop them.

Chicago runs the ball well, maybe not AP well, but well enough to aggrevate the center of the Packers defense. LB Nick Barnett was lost for the season last week, making that Pack run defense even worse than it was. The wildcard here is that Rex "Everytime I spike the ball, I'm intending to flip off every Bears fan in the country" Grossman vs. the Green Bay secondary. As a Bears fan, I'm doing all I can to hold off fear induced convulsions during every Bears passing play. Frightened as I may be, I'll take the points because the running game should keep the Bears close.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (5-4) -8.5 Houston Texans (3-6)

I will make arguments for the Colts in four word sentences (or less!):

Sage Rosenfels. Peyton Manning. Coming off Steelers victory. Colts defense forces turnovers. Rosenfels 4-INT Week 10. Sage Rosenfels. Sage. Rosenfels. Rumors of demise. Greatly exaggerated.

Hopefully that is non-sensical enough for you. Steve Slaton should have a bounce back game against the Colts, assuming the Texans don't fall so far behind that they have to throw the ball every down from the 8 minute mark in the 1st quarter.

New Orleans Saints (4-5) -4.5 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (1-8)

No Reggie Bush might make this game interesting, but I doubt it. Tyler Thigpen has to remember he's Tyler Thigpen at some point.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (5-4) -10.5 Oakland Raiders (2-7)

Congrats Miami on the great turnaround. No, Jammin' JaMarcus and Run-DMC (Darren McFadden, you really need to earn that nickname against a team not named the Chiefs. Thanks.) won't make a difference. Sit Ted Ginn vs Nnamdi "Where pass plays go to die" Asomugha.

NEW YORK GIANTS (8-1) -6.5 Baltimore Ravens (6-3)

The Giants homerism continues. The Ravens are a great defense and this will surely be a test for the Giants. However, if there is one thing the Giants do well it is wear down defenses with their offensive line. B-Jac and Derrick Ward will be running for 6-7 yard gains by the end of this. Also, Joe Flacco vs. that pass rush.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (6-3) -3.5 Minnesota Vikings (5-4)

Tampa can theoretically stop AP, meaning this game will force Brad Childress' playcalling and Gus Frerotte's quarterbacking to win the Vikings a game against a good defense. This is very unlikely. The Minnesota defense should keep this close for a while, but give Tampa the home and coaching edge.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (7-2) -14.5 Detroit Lions (0-9)

Petitioning for the Detroit Lions to be named the "Detroit Play all of your fantasy players against us." For public awareness.

Tennessee Titans (9-0) -2.5 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (4-5)

The Titans are not unbeatable. Any team that scores early on them and has a better pass defense than the Bears can force the Titans into a game they can't play very well.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (2-7) -3.5 St. Louis Rams (2-7)

Putrid vs. Decomposing. This game would be more entertaining if one team was entirely replaced by mutant zombies that, instead of tackling, attempted to bring down ball carriers by eating brains. Let's see Frank Gore put up 200 total yards against that defense!

Arizona Cardinals (6-3) -3.5 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (2-7)

I am not encouraged by the return of Matt "The Hass" Hasselbeck. Best passing offense in the NFL vs. one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL. Good luck, Seattle.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (6-3) -4.5 San Diego Chargers (4-5)

2008 will be known as the year LT went from 1st pick to late 2nd-rounder.

Dallas Cowboys (5-4) -1.5 WASHINGTON REDSKINS (6-3)

Dear Clinton Portis' MCL,

Thanks for forcing us to take the Cowboys.

Irreverently,

MLTS Fantasy

BUFFALO BILLS (5-4) -4.5 Cleveland Browns (3-6)

Worst game in Monday Night Football History? Look for more of the Browns offense that showed up last week -- lots of Kellen Winslow, Jr. and Jamal Lewis. The training wheels will still be on for B-Quinn.
Trent Edwards, Lee Evans and Marshawn Lynch were doing their best to look like small market "Big Three" early in the season. Now they just look small.

Week 10 Picks

NFL previews continue. Home team in CAPS.

PATRIOTS -3.5 Bills

The New England backfield continues to be a fantasy mess, Kevin Faulk is worth starting in PPR leagues and Green-Ellis in deeper leagues. At the time of this writing, Sammy Morris is listed as Doubtful, hopefully he'll be back in Week 11 to provide some stability to the Pats. Cassel and Welker should be solid plays this week. Randy Moss is still a must start. On the Bills side of the ball, QB Trent Edwards and WR Lee Evans should also be decent plays against a beleaguered Patriots secondary. Marshawn Lynch continues his disappointing campaign against an above average linebacking corp. The Pats may not be the fastest LBs in the league but they make up for it with experience -- Lynch is a runner that often ecounters contact behind the line of scrimmage and an RB that has been incorporated into the passing game more as the season progresses. I don't particularly think Lynch's style of running is conducive to a good day against the New England front seven.

Titans -3 BEARS

Mirror match anyone? Rex Grossman makes his triumphant return to the Chicago starting lineup against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Matt Forte and the rest of the Bears offense will have a hard time moving the ball against a defense that will likely have five to six Pro Bowlers. Forte is still a worthy start, though, because the Bears figure to use him in screens out or by putting him in space to take advantage of a Titan defense that gets incredible penetration at the line of scrimmage. On the Titans side of the ball, the Bears defense matches up well against what the Titans do well -- run the ball and attack the middle of the field with TEs -- but will be fighting an uphill battle at the line of scrimmage. The Bears' defensive line has been servicable against the run this season but will likely be pushed around by the Titans offensive line. This game probably comes down to turnovers and physical conditioning.

Saints +1 FALCONS

Reggie Bush won't be playing this week, expect another 300+ yard performance from Drew Brees and the New Orleans passing attack. The Saints defense can stop either the run or pass effectively, I imagine they will attempt to take away the run and make Matt Ryan beat them, as many other teams have tried so far this season. The rookie's poise and emergence of Roddy White has invalidated this strategy against several teams this season. Ultimately, this game is going to be pretty high scoring.

DOLPHINS -7.5 Seattle

Yes, the Dolphins team that was 1-15 last season is now a deceptive 4-4. The Dolphins have been in almost every game they've played this season and have used the Wildcat to great effect -- not just by being successful with the formation, but by playing to the strengths of the most accurate QB in NFL history, Chad Pennington. Seattle is still without Matt Hasselbeck and has significant injuries on both sides of the ball. This one could be a laugher pretty quickly.

Packers +2.5 VIKINGS

Jared Allen is likely not playing this game, which should make the Minnesota secondary an even easier target for Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. Brett Favre was always terrible in the Metrodome, but Rodgers has been poised and in control at every venue he's played at in his inaugural season. Adrian Peterson is the only Viking worth starting for fantasy purposes, the GB run defense isn't anything special anymore. Deeper leagues may want to consider the Minnesota TE Shiancoe, who has caught TD passes in three of his last four games.

Rams +9 JETS

Stephen Jackson may be out, but the Jets are so bad against the pass that this game should be close. Expect a lot of points through the air this week and for the Jets RB tandem of Jones/Washington to continue to be productive, especially in PPR leagues.

Ravens PK TEXANS

This is the makeup game from Week 2. Sage Rosenfels and the Texans passing attack may have a decent day against a hurt Baltimore secondary, but I'm not counting on anything this week from Steve Slaton. The Ravens are the best run defense in the league. Joe Flacco, Ray Rice and the rest of the Ravens offense shouldn't have much trouble moving the ball, as long as they avoid turnovers.

Jaguars -6.5 LIONS

If Orlovsky was playing in this game instead of Dante Culpepper, I would expect the Lions to notch their first win of the season. Jacksonville is a team in disarray without a real identity thanks to significant injuries early in the season. It is getting to be tough to pick them after they lost to the Bengals last week.

Panthers -9.5 RAIDERS

McFadden and Russell aren't playing for the Raiders this week. It wouldn't have made a difference. Congrats on 7-2, Carolina.

STEELERS -4 Colts

No Parker, limited Big Ben for the Steelers. That defense is still scary enough to come away with a win against a very disappointing Colts team.

Chiefs +14.5 CHARGERS

Remember, this is a Chiefs team that nearly beat the Jets and should have beat Tampa Bay. Tampa is at least a better team than the Chargers. San Diego is going to win and going to put up a lot of points coming off of bye with some of their offensive players getting healthy. However, on the defensive side of the ball they have a new defensive coordinator and are severely lacking in the talent department due to injury.

Giants +3 EAGLES

Here is your chance, Philly. Some of the fantasy plays on both sides of the ball may be dubious this week but this is, without question, the best game going. Probably the best Sunday Night game of the year so far.

CARDINALS -9.5 49ers

This matchup always ends up being pretty high scoring. Now that Mike Martz is in the mix on the SF side of the ball, expect a pretty good shootout. The Cardinals defense does look very good at times, though, so this could easily be a blowout. The Cardinals are 5-0 west of the Mississippi River. I have a feeling the press conference Mike Singletary gives after this game could be pretty epic.

Instant Reaction: Iverson - Billups/McDyess Trade

Detriot gets:

Allen Iverson PG/SG

Denver gets:

Chauncy Billups, PG
Antonio McDyess, F/C

Fantasy impact from the Detroit perspective:

Allen Iverson, in spite of his age, is one of the better pure scorers, defenders and play makers playing in the league today. Because of his experience, he should integrate into the Detroit offense quickly. Assists per game might see a slight uptick with the move, Detroit has several high percentage shooters in the front court and on the wings. I would expect the interior scoring of Maxiell/Wallace/Johnson to increase with this move, because Iverson will look to slash to the lane more than Chauncy Billups. Iverson's scoring will probably decrease a tad because Detriot is simply not going to play at the same pace that Denver did. Iverson has never been a very high percentage shooter, so decreasing his total number of shots is going to take a toll. He might also start playing Billups-level minutes which will diminish his value.

Amir Johnson and Jason Maxiell should see an increase in their minutes, provided they can stay out of foul trouble. McDyess was a player that ended up on the floor whenever that combo was in foul trouble or whenever the game was at a critical moment. Consider Johnson, the current starter, to be a viable utility player in shallow leagues -- if he stays out of foul trouble. If you can afford the roster spot I would handcuff him with Maxiell, though.

Fantasy impact from the Denver Perspective:

Chauncy Billups will likely have the freedom to shoot in the Denver offense more. Expect him to play more minutes for George Karl and Co. We should see an increase in his scoring. I view Billups and Iverson roughly equal in the passing department, but Chauncy doesn't really like driving and Denver doesn't have much of an inside game with Nene and Kenyon Martin right now -- so I wouldn't expect that we see any dramatic increase or decrease in assists per game. Anthony Carter is likely headed back to his backup role with JR Smith becoming the starting SG for the Nuggets. This is all kinds of awesome for JR Smith owners -- he's been one of the better 3 point shooters in the league for the last couple years, but hasn't gotten the minutes to support monster fantasy lines.

McDyess is a potentially more interesting player because of how thin the Denver front court is. Nene and Kenyon Martin aren't exactly the greatest defenders in the world, so McDyess might get the nod in close games. Also, Nene and Martin are injury prone, Martin is a little banged up at the moment. McDyess won't be anything earth shattering for fantasy players but he could pretty easily see 22-28 minutes per night as the first front-court sub for the Nuggets.