Re: Draft Strategy: Upside

I wanted to take a moment to respond to the Deeb's arguments regarding upside. I agree with almost everything he said - the value of an individual is constantly being reevaluated based on the most recent string of outcomes (case in point, Robinson Cano and Travis Hafner, who went from being 2nd-3rd round picks to waiver wire fodder in one of my leagues). However, there is one issue I wanted to jump in on and clarify.

Fantasy players, like all assets, are valued based on risk. A player who is a perceived risk (Albert Pujols and the possibility of Tommy John surgery this season comes to mind), or whose stats are inconsistent year to year or game to game (think streaky players like Mark Reynolds or slick Willie Parker) are undervalued relative to their peers. Sure, if you draft enough Jerricho Cotcherys, Patrick Craytons and Anthony Gonzalezes, you're going to end up with some quality wide receivers in the later rounds. But - and this is an important conjunction - you're also going to have far more busts than you'd like. In a shallow league with a deep bench this is a perfectly acceptable (and probably optimal) strategy, but in a deeper league where you're having to reach into the dregs of the player pool to find startable talent, there is significant value in being able to achieve a certain level of consistency.

Alex Gordon, Justin Upton, Jay Bruce, and Evan Longoria were all considered "can't miss" prospects. People salivate(d) when their names were brought up, and if your fantasy leagues with anything like mine, these guys were drafted in the middle rounds when plenty of serviceable major leaguers were available. In the case of Longoria, this has turned out to be a masterful decision - the guy looks like he's one of the 5 best Third Basemen in baseball already. With Bruce, Upton, and Gordon, it has been more of a mixed bag. If you're not relying on putting these guys in your lineup everyday, this risk seems perfectly reasonable, but if you are, there is a lot to be said for drafting Jim Thome, Torrii Hunter, and Ted Lilly.

To be clear, these guys are not going to light the world on fire. With a guy like Thome, you're getting power, power and more power with no roster flexibility. With Ted Lilly, you're getting an above-average strikeout pitcher throwing in a hitter's ballpark in front of a great offense. With Torrii Hunter, you can get excited that he's on your team when you're watching Web Gems on Baseball Tonight (not to mention a solid 20/20 talent who doesn't kill you anywhere else). The point is, what you're not getting is a question mark. What these guys are going to give you is consistency. These are the guys whose numbers you can pencil - no, ink - in year after year.

So, while the Deeb raised some extremely valid points - when in doubt, choose the player with upside - he neglected to mention a really important point - consistency is a skill. Maybe Hines Ward and Laveranues Coles aren't the sexy picks this year, but they are guys who, day in day out, are going to give you the more stable statistics.