The value of fantasy players is always in flux. When initially evaluating player talent, fantasy owners often place each player of a certain position into tiers. Individual players within each tier are rising, falling or holding consistent. When selecting players as a fantasy owner, a concerted effort should be made to acquire the rising players of a given player tier before consistent or, obviously, falling players.
One of the big keys to a successful fantasy draft is to try, in earnest, to figure out where you think players fall relative to their counterparts. To elucidate this point, let's take a look at the 2008 WR position.
At the very top of the WR list there are 3 elite players. Moss, Owens, Wayne. These are guys that can and will carry you during stretches of your fantasy season. You will spend a lot of auction dollars or very high draft picks to get them on your team. No one on the planet can fault you for taking these guys. Barring injury, they are can't miss players.
Much farther down the list, after the likes of the Chad Johnsons, Torry Holts and Braylon Edwards of the world, we get to a larger group of reiceivers who may or may not be equivalent players. The players I'm interested in for the purposes of this post are Jerricho Cotchery, Hines Ward, Laverneus Coles.
2007 numbers for the trio are as follows:
Cotchery: 82 receptions, 1130 yds, 2 TD, 15 games 26 yrs old
Ward: 71 receptions, 732 yds, 7 TD, 13 games, 32 yrs old
Coles: 55 receptions, 646 yds, 6 TD, 12 games, 31 yrs old
Shockingly, Cotchery had the fewest number of fantasy points of those three. If each of these players is on the board and you need a receiver, who are you taking? Ward and Coles in their best years will match or slightly exceed Cotchery. Cotchery in his best year can by all accounts completely obliterate Ward and Coles, guys that will be drafted slightly before or slightly after him. There is definitely value in knowing that Ward and Coles can pretty much be penciled in for their stats. There is also value in Cotchery's youth.
If the object is to win, looking for guys that will at worst meet their history is better than looking for the players that will at best meet their career numbers. Guys entering their prime are more valuable than those exiting their prime, because their career years (ie the limit on their potential value) have not been set yet. In a keeper format, this incredibly more important because it allows you to lock in a player at an incredible value. Having Cory Hart in the 9th round of next year's baseball draft is significantly more valuable than having to spend a 3rd or 4th round pick to get him. If a rising player is identified early enough, you've essentially given yourself extra money to spend on established talent or extra high round draft picks, depending on your format.
Other WR in this mold, in no particular order:
Calvin Johnson
Patrick Crayton
Justin Gage
Santonio Holmes
Roddy White
DJ Hackett
Anthony Gonzalez
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