Where to begin?
After nary a post for nearly two months, MLTS is back with a vengeance. But DB, what have you been up to? Don't worry friends, it'll all come out in due time. Prepare to be dazzled by stories of heroism and heartbreak. Ok, so perhaps it was more of a laziness thing.
During the last two, post-less months, the following things have happened:
1. Barack Obama took office. Elizabeth Alexander offered a poem that wasn't very well received. However, her lines "All about us is noise. All about us is/noise and bramble..." sums up my life pretty well. While I may never be able to grow a beard/'stache, I do get rather prickly after a week without shaving.
2. The Arizona Cardinals rode a ridiculous, Jesus- and puppy-fueled hotstreak to the Superbowl. Maybe I'm just a crumudgeon, but I think Troy Polamalu's flowing locks and the rest of the Steelers will absolutely crush the Cardinals tomorrow. Larry Fitzgerald may end up being one of the best receivers ever, but Kurt Warner has to get him the ball for the Cardinals to be successful.
Fearless prediction for the game: Steelers 32, Cardinals 17.
3. Several MLB players were signed to crazy free-agent contracts. Say what you want about the Yankees attempting to buy a championship, they're running at a lower payroll than last year.
4. Amare Stoudamire continued his push-DB-toward-alcoholism campaign. I'm so glad I ended up buying David West production for LeBron- and CP3- level auction dollars.
5. Rod Blagojevich, my former governor, was impeached. Illinois is 2 for 2 on governors in (or headed to) prison since the turn of the century.
Several other things ranging from significant to insignificant happened.
What to expect for 2009:
1. In the months heading into the NFL draft, I'll break down the drafting prowess of a few teams over significant time periods. I've got an article in the works on the Chicago Bears during the Jerry Angelo era. Schwartz is a big Giants fan so I'll probably break them down. Any other team suggestions are welcome.
2. Thoughts on the current NBA season.
3. Fantasy baseball stuff.
4. Television criticism. Suffice it to say, I watch a lot of TV. I'm not usually current with seasons that are actually airing at the time, but for the first time since the final seasons of Seinfeld, I'm up to date on a few shows. LOST, 30 Rock, and How I Met Your Mother are all on my radar right now. In my spare time I'm going back through Battlestar Galatica to get current with that. I might also do a run-down of my thoughts on Mad Men in preparation for the third season.
5. Fantasy NFL stuff when the time comes.
6. Maybe some video game review-type things. I've been on a bit of a XBOX360 binge lately.
My workload for the next few weeks is rather light, so MLTS might see two posts a week for a bit. I'll do my best to write weekly at the minimum. To those of you that read the blog, thank you and I hope your past two months were pleasant.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Shall we play a game?
How about Global Thermonuclear War. In the interest of keeping the world far away from the Global Depression/Global Thermonuclear War ledge, let's examine a couple peculiarities in the NBA this season. I can easily switch gears if Matthew Broderick decides to make an appearance on the blog, though.
Anyway, guess the player. All stats are per game averages.
Player A: 40.9 FG%, 83.6 FT%, 11.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 8.2 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.4 3PM
Player B: 51.2 FG%, 92.2 FT%, 15.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, 8.1 assists, .5 steals, 1.5 3PM
The percentages give up Steve Nash as Player B in this example pretty easily, but who is Player A? None other than Mike D'Antoni's new PG, Chris Duhon. Sure, that FG% is pretty terrible, but considering that Duhon only takes 8.6 shots per night right now, I think you can live with it. The D'Antoni offense is the NBA's equivalent of the Denver Broncos running game -- plug 'n play. I'm not going to attempt to defend Duhon as the better player, but as a fantasy PG, you could do a lot worse -- Duhon is the #5 PG on ESPN's player rater for the season.
Having just watched the Suns play the Mavericks on TNT, I'm going to go out on a limb and say Nash doesn't average double digit assists this year. That team looks totally lost in every phase of the game. Maybe I'm crazy, but if I'm Sun's coach Terry Porter, I'd be a little concerned about my job security. They've got very little offensive flow right now, there were a number of occurences tonight where Nash led Amare Stoudamire in a pick and roll right into the area that Shaquille O'Neal was occupying, cutting off the drive. Realistic goals for Nash this season are probably 16 PPG, 9 APG with 1.5 3PM and his usual stellar percentages. 9 assists per game will still rank Nash among the league leaders, but if I owned him and wasn't worried about 3 pointers and the positive percentages, moving him for Duhon and another piece might make a lot of sense. I'd try to move Nash on the value of his name and his history.
Player A: 42.5 FG%, 58.6 FT%, 10.9 points, 11.2 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.6 3PM, .8 steals, .5 blocks
Player B: 50.6 FG%, 75.5 FT%, 14.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, .9 3PM, .9 steals, .5 blocks
Again, huge discrepencies in the percentages. Would it help you out if I told you Player A takes fewer than 2 free throw attempts per game? You might have gleaned that these players are both PF, C eligible from the rebounding numbers. Player A is Troy Murphy. Player B is Mehmet Okur. Both of these players are awkward statistically -- they're perimeter big men. If you drafted them, you probably weren't saying, "Sweet, time to win the rebounding title!" Rather, you likely took these guys to bolster a stellar 3s squad by taking one of the few players that will get a meaningful number of 3PM with center eligibility. They also rebound at a decent clip, but both are usually out of the top 30 rebounders in the league.
Murphy is clearly overperforming in rebounding, averaging 3.2 rebounds per game more than his career average. He is able to do this because of an overall lack of rebounding on the Pacers -- Rasho Nesterovich is another center that generally stays 12-15 feet from the basket and he's also sharing time with Jeff Foster. With everyone else on Indiana apparently disinterested with rebounding, Murphy has a chance to put up his best season on the boards yet. The cool thing about Murphy is that he's shooting 4.4 3s per game, which is the highest number of his career. He's historically converted them at a 37.2% rate. This season he is making 36.5% of his 3s, which would lead you to believe his 1.6 3PM per game are here to stay, too.
The only interesting thing about Okur's numbers thus far, well, aside from being worse than Troy Murphy, is that his 3 point attemps are down from 4.4 per game last season to 2.5 per game this season. Hence the incredible leap in FG% (5% above career average) and drop in 3PM from the prior two seasons (1.6 to .9). Look for Okur's shooting percentage to go down in the near future. That or he'll just continue being worse than Troy Murphy in almost every facet of the game.
Anyway, guess the player. All stats are per game averages.
Player A: 40.9 FG%, 83.6 FT%, 11.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 8.2 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.4 3PM
Player B: 51.2 FG%, 92.2 FT%, 15.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, 8.1 assists, .5 steals, 1.5 3PM
The percentages give up Steve Nash as Player B in this example pretty easily, but who is Player A? None other than Mike D'Antoni's new PG, Chris Duhon. Sure, that FG% is pretty terrible, but considering that Duhon only takes 8.6 shots per night right now, I think you can live with it. The D'Antoni offense is the NBA's equivalent of the Denver Broncos running game -- plug 'n play. I'm not going to attempt to defend Duhon as the better player, but as a fantasy PG, you could do a lot worse -- Duhon is the #5 PG on ESPN's player rater for the season.
Having just watched the Suns play the Mavericks on TNT, I'm going to go out on a limb and say Nash doesn't average double digit assists this year. That team looks totally lost in every phase of the game. Maybe I'm crazy, but if I'm Sun's coach Terry Porter, I'd be a little concerned about my job security. They've got very little offensive flow right now, there were a number of occurences tonight where Nash led Amare Stoudamire in a pick and roll right into the area that Shaquille O'Neal was occupying, cutting off the drive. Realistic goals for Nash this season are probably 16 PPG, 9 APG with 1.5 3PM and his usual stellar percentages. 9 assists per game will still rank Nash among the league leaders, but if I owned him and wasn't worried about 3 pointers and the positive percentages, moving him for Duhon and another piece might make a lot of sense. I'd try to move Nash on the value of his name and his history.
Player A: 42.5 FG%, 58.6 FT%, 10.9 points, 11.2 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.6 3PM, .8 steals, .5 blocks
Player B: 50.6 FG%, 75.5 FT%, 14.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, .9 3PM, .9 steals, .5 blocks
Again, huge discrepencies in the percentages. Would it help you out if I told you Player A takes fewer than 2 free throw attempts per game? You might have gleaned that these players are both PF, C eligible from the rebounding numbers. Player A is Troy Murphy. Player B is Mehmet Okur. Both of these players are awkward statistically -- they're perimeter big men. If you drafted them, you probably weren't saying, "Sweet, time to win the rebounding title!" Rather, you likely took these guys to bolster a stellar 3s squad by taking one of the few players that will get a meaningful number of 3PM with center eligibility. They also rebound at a decent clip, but both are usually out of the top 30 rebounders in the league.
Murphy is clearly overperforming in rebounding, averaging 3.2 rebounds per game more than his career average. He is able to do this because of an overall lack of rebounding on the Pacers -- Rasho Nesterovich is another center that generally stays 12-15 feet from the basket and he's also sharing time with Jeff Foster. With everyone else on Indiana apparently disinterested with rebounding, Murphy has a chance to put up his best season on the boards yet. The cool thing about Murphy is that he's shooting 4.4 3s per game, which is the highest number of his career. He's historically converted them at a 37.2% rate. This season he is making 36.5% of his 3s, which would lead you to believe his 1.6 3PM per game are here to stay, too.
The only interesting thing about Okur's numbers thus far, well, aside from being worse than Troy Murphy, is that his 3 point attemps are down from 4.4 per game last season to 2.5 per game this season. Hence the incredible leap in FG% (5% above career average) and drop in 3PM from the prior two seasons (1.6 to .9). Look for Okur's shooting percentage to go down in the near future. That or he'll just continue being worse than Troy Murphy in almost every facet of the game.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
2010-2011 NBA Offseason: The Summer of LeBron
If you didn't know, LeBron James will be a free agent after the 2009-2010 NBA season. The big buzz in the NBA media these days largely revolves around where LeBron and several other incredible free agents, such as Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudamire, will end up signing. Right now, the media is dreaming up possibilities in reaction to the lastest trades made by the Knicks, which free up enough cap space to potentially sign two players to max (or near max) contracts.
So, assuming enough cap space and no problems pulling franchise players from the franchises they've played with their entire NBA careers, which free agents should a team like the Knicks build around? A few of the players in this Free Agent class are certainly injury risks, but for my purposes, I'll ignore injury history. And, just so we're absolutely clear, the Knicks would be playing Mike D'Antoni basketball, trending as much toward the "7 second or less" style made famous early in D'Antoni's tenure with the Suns.
First of all, what does the D'Antoni system require?
1. An aggressive, mistake-free point guard who is also a credible offensive threat. Must be able to play at Nashian levels or at least resemble the decision making ability.
2. Shooters capable of knocking down open threes.
3. Athletic big men that can step out and shoot for mismatch purposes as needed. They must also be able to finish effectively.
4. Because of the athletic requirements of the big men (running the court at break-neck speeds, etc.), they, in general, must also be able to defend bigger players/play out of position. Shawn Marion exemplified this as he's a 3 that had to match up against 4s or even sometimes 5s as needed.
5. Movement without the ball is key, both to generate finishes at the rim/open jumpers and steals/blocks on the defensive end. For example, Amare Stoudamire is an absolutely terrible one-on-one defender, but generates a fair number of turnovers because he's an opportunistic help defender (though, it should also be pointed out that he's pretty bad at help defense, too. When he does help, it does seem to end up in a block or steal a fair amount of the time).
6. High percentage shooters. Yes, the number of wide-open looks the D'Antoni offense generates vastly increases the FG% of the offense. But bad shooters don't make 40+% of their 3s (Nash) or 61% of their FGs (Stoudamire).
This is roughly what the D'Antoni system entails. It does not work as well with poor shooters because those poor shooters squander the extra possessions the offense generates, which ultimately negates the advantage of playing so quickly.
Here is a snapshot of the 2010 Free Agent class, with comments on how they could fit in the system:
Joe Johnson -- Excellent 3 point shooter that has developed into one of the better scorers in the NBA, it might be tough for Mike D to pass Johnson up again after seeing him leave Phoenix after Sarver refused to pay him.
Ray Allen -- One of the best shooters in the league, too old for what the Knicks want to do unless he's considerably cheaper than he is now.
Manu Ginobili -- Another blossoming scorer with divergent skills. Could be an interesting choice at the 3 in spite of being 6'6", though I doubt he's capable of matching up with even the smallest 4s in the league.
Shaquille O'Neal -- Isn't killing D'Antoni basketball once enough?
Stephen Jackson -- Probably too old, but already plays the style in Golden State.
Amare Stoudamire -- Amare is the most efficient scorer in the league. He used to do it with dunks, now he can do it with 15-19 footers. And apparently he's added the 3 ball to his repetoire, or at least he thinks he has.
LeBron James -- The amazing thing about LeBron is that he could defend the 5 and run the point on a Mike D'Antoni team. The Knicks definitely want to build around LeBron +.
Dwayne Wade -- Maybe the best non-Nash guard and best non-LeBron player for the system. The scary thing to remember about Wade is how effective he is off the ball -- something he hasn't been able to do for a few years in Miami.
Chris Bosh -- I'm going to go ahead and say he's the best non-Amare big man for this system. And he might be a little bit better, since he can actually defend the 4 or 5 competently.
Dirk Nowitzki -- Inside-outside game is intriguing, a little old at 32 in 2010.
Tyson Chandler -- Imagine what the offensive numbers would be if Chris Paul ran that alley-oop play more than 3 times per game to Chandler. He's a 5 that might work well in the system because he finishes so well and can defend. D'Antoni 4s and 5s can be monsters without any offensive game beyond five feet from the basket.
Steve Nash -- While he isn't the guy to give a max contract to at his age, wouldn't it be awe-inspiring to see two superstars and a cheap, older Nash run this offense for one or two seasons?
Chris Paul -- He would be an unlikely FA, but he would be dreamy in the system.
Memo Okur -- Probably too old, like Dirk. But he might be a better fit than Dirk because he'll defend the 5.
Mixing and matching these guys, here are some likely combinations:
1. LeBron, Bosh/Amare: Credible inside presence, LeBron good enough passer to make up for lack of super-stud PG. Hell, maybe just run him at point forward. Bosh gives better defense, Amare better offense.
2. LeBron, Wade: Undersized but breathtaking. Both can pass allowing each to work off-ball at times to great effect. Extremely good defenders at their positions.
3. LeBron, Joe Johnson: Johnson can defend 1s, 2s, or 3s, moving LeBron up to a 4. Best 3 point shooter available in the class.
4. Wade, Bosh/Amare: Would invoke the Wade-Shaq days with more athleticism and less defense.
A LeBron/Wade lineup is so tantalizing that it is almost impossible to pass up. However, the most effective combo might be the Johnson/LeBron combo -- especially if Nash were to take a paycut and end up on the Knicks. Johnson is one of the absolute best outside shooters in the league and you know a team with Nash and LeBron on it would be able to hit him with a pass when open every single time. The safest play is to probably go Bosh/LeBron or Bosh/Wade, because size and defense do ultimately matter in the playoffs -- it's not about being a great defensive team overall in the D'Antoni mode, it is about getting stops when you need them, which a Bosh and Wade/LeBron pairing could do.
So, assuming enough cap space and no problems pulling franchise players from the franchises they've played with their entire NBA careers, which free agents should a team like the Knicks build around? A few of the players in this Free Agent class are certainly injury risks, but for my purposes, I'll ignore injury history. And, just so we're absolutely clear, the Knicks would be playing Mike D'Antoni basketball, trending as much toward the "7 second or less" style made famous early in D'Antoni's tenure with the Suns.
First of all, what does the D'Antoni system require?
1. An aggressive, mistake-free point guard who is also a credible offensive threat. Must be able to play at Nashian levels or at least resemble the decision making ability.
2. Shooters capable of knocking down open threes.
3. Athletic big men that can step out and shoot for mismatch purposes as needed. They must also be able to finish effectively.
4. Because of the athletic requirements of the big men (running the court at break-neck speeds, etc.), they, in general, must also be able to defend bigger players/play out of position. Shawn Marion exemplified this as he's a 3 that had to match up against 4s or even sometimes 5s as needed.
5. Movement without the ball is key, both to generate finishes at the rim/open jumpers and steals/blocks on the defensive end. For example, Amare Stoudamire is an absolutely terrible one-on-one defender, but generates a fair number of turnovers because he's an opportunistic help defender (though, it should also be pointed out that he's pretty bad at help defense, too. When he does help, it does seem to end up in a block or steal a fair amount of the time).
6. High percentage shooters. Yes, the number of wide-open looks the D'Antoni offense generates vastly increases the FG% of the offense. But bad shooters don't make 40+% of their 3s (Nash) or 61% of their FGs (Stoudamire).
This is roughly what the D'Antoni system entails. It does not work as well with poor shooters because those poor shooters squander the extra possessions the offense generates, which ultimately negates the advantage of playing so quickly.
Here is a snapshot of the 2010 Free Agent class, with comments on how they could fit in the system:
Joe Johnson -- Excellent 3 point shooter that has developed into one of the better scorers in the NBA, it might be tough for Mike D to pass Johnson up again after seeing him leave Phoenix after Sarver refused to pay him.
Ray Allen -- One of the best shooters in the league, too old for what the Knicks want to do unless he's considerably cheaper than he is now.
Manu Ginobili -- Another blossoming scorer with divergent skills. Could be an interesting choice at the 3 in spite of being 6'6", though I doubt he's capable of matching up with even the smallest 4s in the league.
Shaquille O'Neal -- Isn't killing D'Antoni basketball once enough?
Stephen Jackson -- Probably too old, but already plays the style in Golden State.
Amare Stoudamire -- Amare is the most efficient scorer in the league. He used to do it with dunks, now he can do it with 15-19 footers. And apparently he's added the 3 ball to his repetoire, or at least he thinks he has.
LeBron James -- The amazing thing about LeBron is that he could defend the 5 and run the point on a Mike D'Antoni team. The Knicks definitely want to build around LeBron +.
Dwayne Wade -- Maybe the best non-Nash guard and best non-LeBron player for the system. The scary thing to remember about Wade is how effective he is off the ball -- something he hasn't been able to do for a few years in Miami.
Chris Bosh -- I'm going to go ahead and say he's the best non-Amare big man for this system. And he might be a little bit better, since he can actually defend the 4 or 5 competently.
Dirk Nowitzki -- Inside-outside game is intriguing, a little old at 32 in 2010.
Tyson Chandler -- Imagine what the offensive numbers would be if Chris Paul ran that alley-oop play more than 3 times per game to Chandler. He's a 5 that might work well in the system because he finishes so well and can defend. D'Antoni 4s and 5s can be monsters without any offensive game beyond five feet from the basket.
Steve Nash -- While he isn't the guy to give a max contract to at his age, wouldn't it be awe-inspiring to see two superstars and a cheap, older Nash run this offense for one or two seasons?
Chris Paul -- He would be an unlikely FA, but he would be dreamy in the system.
Memo Okur -- Probably too old, like Dirk. But he might be a better fit than Dirk because he'll defend the 5.
Mixing and matching these guys, here are some likely combinations:
1. LeBron, Bosh/Amare: Credible inside presence, LeBron good enough passer to make up for lack of super-stud PG. Hell, maybe just run him at point forward. Bosh gives better defense, Amare better offense.
2. LeBron, Wade: Undersized but breathtaking. Both can pass allowing each to work off-ball at times to great effect. Extremely good defenders at their positions.
3. LeBron, Joe Johnson: Johnson can defend 1s, 2s, or 3s, moving LeBron up to a 4. Best 3 point shooter available in the class.
4. Wade, Bosh/Amare: Would invoke the Wade-Shaq days with more athleticism and less defense.
A LeBron/Wade lineup is so tantalizing that it is almost impossible to pass up. However, the most effective combo might be the Johnson/LeBron combo -- especially if Nash were to take a paycut and end up on the Knicks. Johnson is one of the absolute best outside shooters in the league and you know a team with Nash and LeBron on it would be able to hit him with a pass when open every single time. The safest play is to probably go Bosh/LeBron or Bosh/Wade, because size and defense do ultimately matter in the playoffs -- it's not about being a great defensive team overall in the D'Antoni mode, it is about getting stops when you need them, which a Bosh and Wade/LeBron pairing could do.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Week 12 Picks: In My Day, The SAT Was Out Of 1600
With highlights yet again!
ATLANTA FALCONS (6-4) -1.5 Carolina Panthers (8-2)
You know, the NFC South is a pretty sexy division. This game is intriguing, not just because of the playoff implications. Just go with me here for a second. The Falcons are like that girl in high school/college/work/church that everyone sort of wrote off and ended up looking good after a summer of eating right, sunbathing (with sunscreen for the anti-cancerous tan), and culturing up a bit. Yeah, we unassuming males are a little turned on by these developments. But are we really going to give up on the known commodity, Carolina, who still looks great, still does that thing with her tongue and still watches sports? These Falcons still have a few things to figure out about love.
CLEVELAND BROWNS (4-6) -3.5 Houston Texans (3-7)
Just think; combining these two expansion (Sorry, Cleveland) franchises would result in one viable team.
DALLAS COWBOYS (6-4) -10.5 San Francisco 49ers (3-7)
Schwartz nearly choked while saying “How ‘bout them Cowboys?”
Give me Frank Gore, Mike Martz, Shaun “Real backups don’t wear helmets” Hill and the points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) -8.5 DETROIT LIONS (0-10)
Has the plight of a sports team ever embodied the plight of the people in its region so closely? The Lions need an Obama-esque GM for change they can believe in. GM and Ford could use Obama-esque GMs, too.
TENNESSEE TITANS (10-0) -5.5 New York Jets (7-3)
Brett Favre has 12 INTs and 8 fumbles on the season. The Tennessee defense has 15 INT and 5 fumble recoveries on the season. Favre vs. that defense isn’t the real matchup, though. The Tennessee running game against the Jets front seven will be where the game is won or lost. Also, obligatory mention of Tennessee not being good enough to go undefeated this year, yadda, yadda, yadda.
Buffalo Bills (5-5) -3.5 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (1-9)
Chiefs: NFL :: Crazy, Alcoholic, Unemployed Step-Uncle: Your family’s Thanksgiving meal
Bills: NFL :: Sober, Rather Be Fishin’, Teacher Uncle: Your family’s Thanksgiving meal
Chicago Bears (5-5) -7.5 ST. LOUIS RAMS (2-8)
The Bears might make the playoffs this season thanks to an incredibly easy schedule. Having watched all of their games, this doesn’t make sense to me. Statistically they may look like a playoff team, but their numbers are propped up by some lopsided games early in the season. I will give the Bears this: you know exactly what you are getting from them every single game.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (6-4) -1.5 New England Patriots (6-4)
It’s pretty shocking that these teams have the same record. Last time these teams met, the Dolphins invoked the Wildcat offense to get around the fact that Bill Belichick owns Chad Pennington. What’ll that crazy Miami staff come up with this time? Excuses postgame?
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (4-6) -2.5 Minnesota Vikings (5-5)
Adrian Peterson >*
BALTIMORE RAVENS (6-4) -1.5 Philadelphia Eagles (5-4)
Let’s break the Eagles down SAT style:
LaDanian Tomlinson (985 YFS, 6 TD, 36 Rec.) : Brian Westbrook (726 YFS, 8 TD, 32 Rec.)
Phil Rivers (2518 YDS, 21 TD, 10 INT) : Donovan McNabb (2711 YDS, 14 TD, 8 INT)
San Diego : AFC Playoffs:: Philadelphia : NFC Playoffs
Philadelphia will henceforth be known as “San Diego Chargers: East Coast Edition.” Anyway, SDC:ECE at least has a viable defense. Against the Ravens their lack of a running game (of late) probably won’t matter at all. SDC:ECE needs this game to stay playoff relevant.
DENVER BRONCOS (6-4) -9.5 Oakland Raiders (2-8)
The line seems high a little big until you realize that Oakland’s point total last week (15) nearly matched their point total for the three games prior (19). Also, Mike Shanahan hates the Raiders/Al Davis – expect another 20+ point shellacking.
New York Giants (9-1) -3.5 ARIZONA CARDINALS (7-3)
Giant homerism continues. Game of the week, with easy.
Also, continuing this theme: Edge James: Shawn Marion::Cardinals: Suns. I mean, would he rather be “the guy” on a team like the Lions and get his 900 to 1100 yards or be a potential backup on the Cardinals and have a chance at a ring?
Washington Redskins (6-4) -3.5 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (2-8)
Second consecutive -3.5 line for a team facing the Seahawks that is vastly better than the Seahawks in every phase of the game.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-6) -2.5 Indianapolis Colts (6-4)
Who was expecting the combined record of these teams to be .500 at the beginning of the season? If your hand is raised right now you are a filthy liar. Wait, are you saying being a filthy liar is everything it’s cracked up to be? Whoa, hold on. You get an hour recess each day AND full health benefits at the filthy liar factory? Where do I sign up? Oh, right next to that giant, flesh-eating zombie dog? I’m there!
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (5-5) -2.5 Green Bay Packers (5-5)
Aaron Rodgers has the same number of combined (pass + rush) TDs as Favre, more combined yards, and 6 INTs vs. 12 for Favre. The Packers really gave up so much by letting Brett go in the offseason! Never mind that the defense is the reason why the Packers are 5-5 instead of 7-3 or better. Nope. Record is only determined by QB (when the QB is named Favre and isn’t responsible for any of the Jets wins).
Friday, November 21, 2008
NHL Update by Bobby Gottfried
OK, so here we are, just over a month into the NHL season. What do we know? First of all, the top two picks in almost every draft aren't even the top guys on their own teams. Yes, Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin are being surpassed by teammates Evgeni Malkin and Alexander Semin, respectively. Malkin and Semin are currently in a race for the points lead, with Malkin ahead since Semin was injured last week (although he could return as soon as tomorrow). Semin is also tied with Thomas Vanek for the league lead in goals. Meanwhile both Ovie and Crosby struggled out of the gate, but seem to be getting back on track now.
Speaking of Ovechkin and Semin, if you're in need of help in +/-, try to trade for someone on the Capitals 1st line. Ovechkin, Semin, and linemate Nicklas Backstrom are all in the top 5 of +/- so far this season, and defenseman Mike Green, who is often on the ice with the other 3, is also in the top 5 (for those doing the math, that's 4 Capitals in the top 5). The line puts up points and doesn't surrender many goals, making them +/- machines.
Final thought on my Capitals homerism before moving on. If you're a Jose Theodore owner, then Brent Johnson has become the must-have goalie handcuff. Even if you don't have Theodore, you may want to look into picking up Johnny. In 8 games this season he's 5-1-2 with a 2.15 GAA and a .931 SV%, both much better than Theodore. He started 5 consecutive games for the Caps, winning the final 4 and going 4-0-1 overall. He also has not allowed an even-strength goal in his last 3 starts. It seemed that Johnny was on his way to stealing the starting gig from Theodore before getting hurt against Carolina. He was healthy enough to back up Theodore the past 2 games, but Johnson says he's 100% again, and coach Bruce Boudreau has not committed to a starter tomorrow at Anaheim. But it seems there will be a timeshare in Washington, so if you own Theodore, you should do everything you can to get your hands on Johnson.
Sticking with goalie handcuffs, another guy who's been performing great is Brian Boucher, filling in for the injured Evgeni Nabokov. Boucher posted shutouts in each of his first two starts this season, and since has continued to look solid as he's started 6 straight games for San Jose, with a GAA under 2, even with one bad performance where he gave up 5 goals. Nabokov is coming back soon, and has shown that he can shoulder the load and stay relatively healthy in his career. But he looked tired in the playoffs last year, and the Sharks have said they want to rest him more. He won't play 94% of the games from here on out like he did last season. Boucher has also earned more playing time, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him spell Nabokov more often, especially in back-to-back games and while he's getting back to 100%. If you're a Nabokov owner and you have room on your roster, Boucher could be a good pickup in case Nabby reinjures himself.
If you need some forward help, see if Milan Lucic is available in your league. He has posted a modest 11 points (5 G, 6 A) through 18 games, and that pace may be about right, or even a little high. But what he doesn't get you in points he gets you elsewhere. He has 43 PIMs through those 18 games. He's also a healthy +7, tied for 23rd overall in the league. So if you need help in either of those categories, he's a solid pickup who will get you a fair number of points on the side.
On defense, take a look at recent Blackhawks callup Cam Barker. In just 8 games this season he's posted 9 points (3 G, 6 A), 6 of them on the power play. He's also hovering around and above 20 minutes on the ice a game, plenty of time to be productive. Trade rumors are swirling around him as the Blackhawks may look to free up cap space, but he's worth a flyer, and it's also worth it to see where he may land if the rumors prove true.
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